The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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Why The Neighbors Are Nervous
by James Dunnigan
November 22, 2014
In eastern Ukraine over 160 people have been killed in Donbas since the September ceasefire. Over 3,700 have died in Donbas since Russia began military operations (via pro-Russian rebels or Russian soldiers) in April. Russia has been warned by the West that if the pro-Russian rebels hold their election on November 2
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(to establish a separate state) and Russia recognizes it, this will be a violation of international law and will bring more sanctions. Russia used the same tactics to annex Crimea from Ukraine earlier this year and parts of Georgia in 2008. Russia blames the United States for all the anti-Russian attitudes among its neighbors. President Putin and many Russians see America as continuing the Cold War by conspiring to weaken Russia. Many Russians, however, note that their neighbors don’t agree and see Russia returning to its traditional paranoia about all foreigners. These Russians realize that there are bad habits in Russia (aside from tolerance for corruption and outlaw behavior) that need to be changed before Russia can move forward. But at the moment the traditionalists are in charge and it’s paranoia as usual. The average Russian feels the impact of all this with shortages and high inflation, all brought on by the sanctions.
The Donbas rebels demand independence for the five million people in Donbas areas that the rebels control. The Ukraine government refuses to allow that and is willing to negotiate some autonomy. Most Ukrainians, and many Russians believe the Russian government wants to annex Donbas and nothing less will do. Russia quickly discovered that seizing Donbas was going to be a lot more difficult than anticipated. Part of the problem was the unexpectedly robust resistance by Ukrainian forces. In particular the Ukrainian volunteer forces fighting in eastern Ukraine were particularly effective against Russian sponsored troops and Russian regular forces. These volunteer units comprise about 20 percent of the 50,000 armed personnel Ukraine has sent to the Donbas.
While Israel has expressed sympathy for Ukraine in their confrontation with Russia, when Ukraine asked to purchase some Israeli UAVs, the Israeli government intervened and blocked the sale (which Israeli manufacturers were willing to make). The reason was because Israel needed good relations with Russia, especially when it came to persuading the Russians to refrain from selling Iran modern weapons or the technology that would enable Iran to do so. This was a rare win for Russia in its diplomatic and media campaign to justify their Ukraine aggression. With Israel the Russians have not won over Israeli public opinion (which sees Russia as the bad guys) but they have managed to use their diplomatic muscle to foil Ukrainian efforts to get needed military equipment.
While Russian aggression in Ukraine gets most of the headlines, there’s plenty of Russian misbehavior against other neighbors as well. Finland reports growing Russian military activity on the border and against Finnish ships in the Baltic. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (the “Baltic States” that were long part of Russia) are receiving similar harassment, as well as Russian offers of a large discount on what they pay for Russian natural gas if they will leave NATO. None of the Baltic States sees this as a good deal and consider NATO their only real protection from Russian aggression.
Russia’s neighbors also agree that there has been a lot more activity by Russian “diplomats” posing as spies since the Ukrainian crises began in late 2013. East Europeans have been openly comparing Putin’s aggression to that of Stalin and Hitler before World War II. Russians get very upset at these comparisons, insisting that they are only seeking to regain territory that is really theirs’ and lost due to foreign conspiracies. At that point Russian logic introduces imaginary plots by NATO and the United States which strike Westerners as absurd but appeal to a lot of Russians. That’s what makes Russia’s neighbors nervous because it is a repeat of previous instances of Russian aggression. Russian neighbors, particularly Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are increasing defense spending and getting their military forces ready for Russian aggression.
Russia is being forced to depend on China for tech and cash it can no longer get from the West because of the growing sanctions. As much as Russian leaders loathe and fear NATO, many also resent being forced to grant China access to Russian markets, raw materials and military technology in payment for help coping with the sanctions. Russian leaders believe they can handle China and Chinese leaders believe their economic power will give them unprecedented control over Russia. Someone has miscalculated here and it is as yet unclear who. While China gains more raw materials and export markets along with improvements to its locally developed weapons, Russia is forced to halt its efforts to diversify its economy away from dependence on raw materials exports. The diversification depended on Western tech and investment. That has been halted for the moment and the Chinese can’t replace it. Many Russians see this as a bad decision and that helps fuel the growing popular opposition to the government.
The Russian leadership is divided about the ultimate cost of these border wars. The nationalists, led by president Putin, are willing to sacrifice to rebuild the empire. But many in the leadership see the cost as too high and the rebuilding of the empire as impractical in the face of Western opposition. Because of the sanctions the economy is being weakened, leading to a recession and lots of Russians, rich and poor, are going to feel the loss. Economic experts warn of long-term damage as Western governments and firms decide that Russia cannot be trusted and, even after the current crises, charge extra because of the perceived risks of dealing with Russians. This surcharge, and the distrust underlying it, will hurt the Russian economy for decades to come. Also damaging is the growing Chinese economic power inside Russia. Even many Russian nationalists fear this while other pro-empire Russians believe the Chinese are intrinsically weak and will fold under pressure. That’s not what the Chinese think and some Russians are well aware of that. A growing number of Russians believe they are being ruled by a dictator, who only pretends to respect democracy and will, if cornered, use force to remain in power. President Putin dismisses such accusations, while continuing to operate like they are all too true.
The aggressive Russian response to the sanctions is being expressed in the east as well as the west. Thus in the last six months Chinese aircraft fell from first to second place as the most common threat Japanese air defense forces have to deal with. Now, again, it’s Russian aircraft that are most frequently triggering a response. From April to September this year Japanese aircraft went up over 531 times to confront intruders. Russian aircraft (often recon aircraft) coming too close to Japanese air space accounted for 61 percent of these incidents while Chinese intrusions (mostly warplanes) accounted for 39 percent. While 2013 was the first year Chinese intrusions exceeded Russian ones, this did not become a trend. But Chinese intrusions have become more common. This has been coming for several years. In 2011 nearly 43 percent of the sorties were for Chinese aircraft. That was nearly three times as many Chinese intrusions as in 2010. Meanwhile Russian intrusions have been declining. In 2011, Russia still accounted for 52 percent of the intrusions and now they are back on top again.
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