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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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gf0012-aust       5/10/2010 5:37:33 PM
These reports are seriously amateur hour.
 
It doesn;t matter if they find a banana smoothie on the seabed - its the shape of the damage to the hull that is the demolition "tell."
 
apart from the fact that you use alloys in torpedoes (weight effects distance and "flight") and not in mines (because the casing is part of the kinetic violence)
 
they'd be better off saying nought....
 
 
 
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CFG    ... no comment ...   5/10/2010 7:49:01 PM
 
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Hamilcar       5/11/2010 2:04:58 AM

These reports are seriously amateur hour.

We are into politics now.

It doesn;t matter if they find a banana smoothie on the seabed - its the shape of the damage to the hull that is the demolition "tell."

Mine or torpedo, I already know the debate there and await detail photos of the tear lines in the metal. 

apart from the fact that you use alloys in torpedoes (weight effects distance and "flight") and not in mines (because the casing is part of the kinetic violence)

Mass/watt/fuel/endurance  ratios. I got that too.  

they'd be better off saying nought....

But "they" are saying, and the questions are WHO and WHY? Its not for foreign consumption they do this. The guilty parties already know who they are, and the rest of us out here who pay attention probably know that too.  

H.

CFG reply: the article brings nothing really new. Its been a while since the we had a weakling and a fool for a POTUS, like the Chicago Thug, but even when we had the fool, Clinton, and then after him, the almost equally inept Bush, the US had a hands off policy with regard to PRC bandit internal meddling in the DPRK. The 1994 agreement we had with the criminal, KJI, blew up over an illegal DPRK missile tech transfer to Yemen that violated those 1994 accords  
 
 
Shrug. It was the PRC bandits who arranged the Yemeni financing for the missiles as the money laundering middlemen. 
 
H.
 
 
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heavy       5/11/2010 2:49:45 PM
 
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heavy    @ham   5/11/2010 2:50:11 PM

There is no reason to believe that the PRC bandits cannot use another currency to function as they use the dollar. (Euro). 


And yet there are plenty of reasons why they will not.


- America has financial problems, but Europe's are even worse (Greece being the latest expression of that), making ?-bonds less attractive.

- They have more capital bound up in US bonds than anyone else, and thus have a relatively high interest in not dumping and thus devaluing them.

- Their trade surplus with America will evaporate. Indeed, America has pressured China (but not too loudly) for years now to let the Yuan rise for just this reason.


That is because they have no free internal credit mechanism and consumption to soak up excess production. 1927 America in a nutshell repeated.  Wonder if their real estate base and agriculture is as messed up as our own was/is. (It is.)


This lack of economic strategic depth also makes it extremely unlikely they'll engage in overt economic warfare, especially not with a nation as economically resilient as the US.


They have enough undervaluation to soak up the 10% difference. We can't afford the added 1 or 2 points of interest. Can't you see this? 


Higher interest on the debt would be more than offset by a resurgence exports across the board and in American manufacturing in particular. Both are paths to a more sustainable economy anyway. This is again why American policy has been for some time to "encourage" China to allow the Yuan to rise. It is in no one's interest for China to suffer an inflationary crash, either.


No there isn't. Who has a slave labor command economy that can feed the debtor fix? Nobody.   


To borrow a phrase, There is no reason to believe that Americans can't absorb the added cost of cheap toasters from Maquiladores vice Beijing.


And you read the the money flow exactly backwards.


The flow is in parallel, not series.


Their preferred condition is economic chaos, not stability.


Given that they simply don't have the internal resilience to absorb large scale volatility I find this unlikely at best. The rest of your paragraph is so thoroughly uncontroversial as to be tautological. You could accurately describe nearly every nation in existence this way: selfish, self-centered, ruthless, opportunistic. What else is new?


Don't for a second

 
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CFG    It was politics all the time ...   5/11/2010 3:14:33 PM
For the moment, I think that the end of that article is correct 

"We don?t just have a North Korea problem; we have a China problem. China will continue to prop up Kim Jong Il?s regime until that policy becomes linked to negative consequences for its own internal stability and foreign interests."

It is another way of "one that you don't let die, won't let you live". Seam to me that China don't see that Kim regime is already influence negatively its foreign interests.
- Cooperation is the policy that is here to stay, the policy that bring much more then confrontation, Kim regime block that.
- Denuclearization of Korea is another interest in which Kim regime is against Chinese interest.
 
 
 "Both the conclusion that it was a torpedo and the conclusion that the South Koreans will not react militarily have been obvious since the day it happened."
Well, day or on the days that followed :) ... and not 100% sure of the details. What you can do about it in the very next days? All involved or interested doesn't want an war, NoK included.
For sure NoK, if was NoK, intended to be in its interest and advantage. How do you turn the initiative and advantage from NoK? How do you turn it to be a mistake for NoK, warpig? But what if was not NoK, do one jump to action? (not that you said to jump ... I try to not make it personal)
 
 
The big risk is to escalate. It's so easy to shoot and think after.
What if not knowing all details and without full process (measurement, quantities, calculation, comparisons) the outcome is one not wanted?
Public opinion will go for actions against the one that caused the sunk, there will be local election early June ... it's a complex situation with a lot of interest and implications (which I personally don't know).
But it is a political issue, one that have also a technical facet (and not only that).
It was a mine or a torpedo? A torpedo is an attack, an act of war period. A mine is not so much an attack. If one is not sure of that and doesn't make MUCH of calculations and comparison, then must delay ... only after the report and thinking to act.
What to act? How about to attack the plans, then the alliances ... and never shot a bullet?
 
No hurry, those actions sure take time and are political driven, as was the sunk of the Cheonan. Bring in foreign experts, make sure that all details of the report are covered, delaying the report if that help, ...
Meanwhile bring China if is possible, cooperation in the regions, as in all regions, is so important IMHO.
 
Cover all aspect, what ever those are, simplify the situation as much as possible in order to make calculations and comparison exact/correct.
 
...
As for leaks, maybe the industry want more orders because sure doesn't want a war. A war will cost to much. Reducing political options in order to lead government to increase spendings, could motivate the leaks. A too early report is like an attack of the plans of SoK, if exist. And if exist, they should be hidden.
 
...
14th FS, Samurais, moved - according to schedule or not. I understood that WW motto is "First in, last out", but that does not refer to moving. Samurais are specialized in SEAD ... For sure they will train in the right conditions ... Plus that will add some stress to Kim regime.
IMHO Cheonan incident, slowly, was turned into a mistake, political one, for the NoK, if it was NoK. Maybe under stress Kim regime will do more mistakes.

...

If one compare with Iran there are a lot of differences. IMO the NoK is more ripe then Iran, if one think that NoK tested nuclear devices. China doesn't see the urgency.
Also, NoK will not modernize nor prosper without China. Why delay 3-5 years?
 
...
 
Its politics, it was politics all the time.

 
 
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gf0012-aust       5/11/2010 5:25:44 PM
Its politics, it was politics all the time. 

exactly, which in public terms the technical issues of this event itself is more interesting for me.  the tail was wagging the dog long ago on this.
 
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CFG    "Small is the number of people who see with their eyes and think with their minds"   5/11/2010 7:02:03 PM



Its politics, it was politics all the time. 






exactly, which in public terms the technical issues of this event itself is more interesting for me.  the tail was wagging the dog long ago on this.

Yes, man. The technical issues are important. But they must be combined with others issues.
 
For some, others issue are more interesting. Why to be limited just to technical ones? ...
 
If one try to think about all aspects of the incident and follow-up ones, at least will remain with the effort.
 
 
... For some in that Peninsula it is definitely not a wag, but a part of their life ... for some ...
 
 
... my invitations is to think more, with your own minds.
 
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gf0012-aust       5/11/2010 7:09:08 PM


Yes, man. The technical issues are important. But they must be combined with others issues.

 I think you're misundersdtanding my comment.  I have an interest in the political and cultural, but not in a public forum. part of my heritage is asian - I'm not indifferent to whats pccurring

For some, others issue are more interesting. Why to be limited just to technical ones? ...

See above

 If one try to think about all aspects of the incident and follow-up ones, at least will remain with the effort.

See above

 ... For some in that Peninsula it is definitely not a wag, but a part of their life ... for some ...

yes, and I'd have to say that culturally, some of my compatriots obsess over the minutae to the detriment of the reality of the event

 ... my invitations is to think more, with your own minds.
you assume that I'm not thinking just because I refuse to get dragged into some of the silliness thats occurred in here to date?  thats just as dangerous as expounding and giving currency to the conspiracy theorists.


 
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CFG       5/11/2010 7:19:23 PM
Communications by writing can be misleading sometime.
Now I understood you, gf0012-aust
 
 
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