Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Korea Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
warpig       4/28/2010 6:00:57 PM

Opposite of inaction is NOT full scale war. There are several other options between those two extremes in the spectrum. Yes, there's always risk out there. But doing nothing has its own risk. There's no nation, regime that goes into a full scale war because of any single incident. If NoK really wants a war, they'll just do it with or without retaliation from the south. Saying 'we musn't do anything or hell will break loose' is as naive as saying WWI caused by a Serb.

Shack!  Exactly.  So the South Koreans retaliate by sinking some North Korean submarines.  Oh, no they can't do that because 100,000s of South Korean civilians will die when North Korea goes full-scale war and shells the hell out of the city of Seoul.  Well, yes, certainly that is *one* possibilty, and a mighty grim one indeed.  (I've always found it odd that apparently the NorKs fire plan at the beginning of full-scale war is to turn all its tubes on the civilians in Seoul, rather than on the South Korean army that's pounding away at the NorKs.)  Obviously it is quite possible that is a sufficient risk such that the South will not retaliate so big.  So maybe they just sink one little NorK patrol boat.  Oh, no they can't do that because 100,000s of South Korean civilians will die when North Korea goes full-scale war and shells the hell out of the city of Seoul.  Hmmm, well, then maybe they just cut off all aid to NorK.  Oh, no they can't do that because 100,000s of South Korean civilians will die when North Korea goes full-scale war and shells the hell out of the city of Seoul.  Hmmm, well, then maybe they just make an ineffectual protest in the UN General Assembly.  Oh, no they can't do that because 100,000s of South Korean civilians will die when North Korea goes full-scale war and shells the hell out of the city of Seoul.  Wait, maybe, just maybe, the North won't go medieval over yet another ineffectual UN protest.  Well, then there it is, that is an acceptable reaction from the South.
Quote    Reply

DarthAmerica       4/28/2010 6:04:57 PM
Lets not forget North Korea needs food aid in order to sustain itself. A lot of that aid comes from South Korea and China. The South can use that and China is also a potential lever since it is dependent on Trade with the USA and is trying hard to avoid angering the USG and being labelled currency manipulator.
Quote    Reply

DarthAmerica    @Warpig   4/28/2010 6:18:10 PM
The IPB analysis has to consider both most likely and most dangerous threat courses of action for the risk assessment. It's not logical to risk 10's of thousands of lives to make a symbolic strike. Think about it. The strike would at least have to equal the significance of the Cheonan loss in order to save face. Thats quite a tall order in terms of controlling the escalation. I regret Cheonan but I would not recommend this course of action unfortunately considering the risk. Remember, the North and South are on near wartime readiness status and withing shooting range of each other. If things get out of control, you wont have the warning time of traditional mobilization where the diplomats can control things. HUGE RISK.
Quote    Reply

SantaClaws       4/28/2010 6:25:49 PM
You also need to consider this. The North Korean Regime is teetering on the brink of collapse. On one hand they have a defunct economy that is unable to support the country. On the other hand they have multiple countries that would like nothing better to see them disappear.
The regime is already paranoid about outside invasion. How heavily militarized the country is should provide ample evidence. Any attack is most likely going to perceived as the initial parts of a larger operation to dispose of the North Korean Government. Any economic sanctions are likely to bring the regime to the brink of collapse as well.
So, the North Koreans have developed a strategy where it is just far more painful to do anything to disrupt their daily operations. If you were in their position, it's a pretty good bargaining tool to be able to wipe out your neighbors capital if they try anything stupid. The North Koreans know they will lose any war, so while destroying Seoul has little military value in a war, it has lots of strategic value in preventing one. Think of it as a conventional form of MAD.
Quote    Reply

DarthAmerica       4/28/2010 7:02:46 PM


I agree about the conventional MAD. And it's not limited to Seoul. The risk is to the Korean ecomony as a whole. This is what gives the North the kind of flexibility they have with regard to limited aggressive or provocative actions. And yes, to strict of sanctions could provoke violence as well. In situations such as this compromise seems to be the way to long term solutions. War is a lose lose for both sides in this case I'm afraid.

I'd love nothing more than to crush the North into oblivion. However, I just don't see it as practical and I'm a big believer of not initiating conflicts you can't finish on favorable terms.


Quote    Reply

DarthAmerica       4/28/2010 7:04:48 PM
I think that a Coup would be the best way to get this done. We have to create the conditions to make that a realistic option.
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       4/28/2010 7:42:03 PM
Political leverage on NK is a joke. if there was any it's already used up like 5 times. They have all the sancionts i can think of applied. Unless PRC hops on board which i dont see happening nothing short of shooting somebody or sth will work.
In practice i probably hope that no war will take place but in theory. Maybe the war would be for the best? Thousands of lives lost today might save millions of lives tomorrow (probably mostly n koreans who will die from starvation..brainwashed but still koreans)
Bottom line you either shoot somebody or do nothing. Cutting food supplies won't hurt the regime just the ordinary folks .

Quote    Reply

Hamilcar    My my my....   4/28/2010 9:35:08 PM
Throw temper tantrums much, Gixxer?


First of all, like warpig said earlier, SHUT THE FK UP about who is qualified and toss the personal nonsense. Learn to disagree. Did you notice Warpig and I disagree somewhat on a proper South Korean response? Well then you see that we stated our points and no one got called incompetent or anything else. Two people simply talking and agreeing to disagree. Try it. You are less likely to get kicked of the forums that way. You may even be able to get others to change their point of view if you stop being such and arrogant a$$. You have a well documented long list of errors that anyone can referrece so seriosly, chill. You are just another poster.

You don''t  tell anyone to shut up.  Is that clear?

Now, with regard to Cheonan, the subject we should be talking about. I have stated the same theories as have the people connected with the investigations. I've endorsed no paticular caused or assigned blame to any nation yet. In fact I've urged from the beginning the same caution the public officials are urging now. While you may disagree with that approach, it is the way things are going. Moreover, there is ZERO evidence of any connection between alleged American incompetence or Chinese villiany associated with this. The only possible tangential relation to the Chinese is that it has been suggested that a Torpedo of their design may have caused this. Again, something I mentioned before when I said that not all NorK weapons exist in publicly available referrences and that it's possible that types of weapons may include new weapons or weapons originating from places other than North Korean to include South Korea. I also mentioned that this may have been an attack by a submarine as one of several possibilities. Something others questioned BTW.

Your theories were wrong. I was careful to work out the evidence. You posted wild nonsense.  The PRC bandits did nothing to help  and have been SILENT on subject not even offering condolences. That speaks columes to those who know something about the PRC bandits about whom you know nothing. You never mentioned submarine, until well after others did. In fact you spent a lot of time with CAPTOR mines which was one of your stupid suggestions.

With regard to X-37B. How you can say with a straight face that you debunked anything is truly amazing. I presented the source data fromt he manufacturer that shows that they considered it to be a possible weapons delivery platform. One that Ironically went into space right before testing of a Global Strike weapons I might add. The USAF has declared the payload of this mission to be classified. That means you either don't know or cannot speak with any authority about what this X-37B is testing or intended to test. Like ALL of the rest of us, YOU are speculating on what you think the X-37B is doing or capable of doing. That is a fact. So if you disagree, then fine. But then that's where you need to leave things. A simple disagreement and move on.

Google clowning by you is no substitute for knowledge in subject. Your ravings I easily demolished with three facts I knew, throattable engine, size of payload compartment, and power source (solar cells) used in orbit.    


Incompetence is provable. I just did that to you, again.

Quote    Reply

Hamilcar    See post above.   4/28/2010 9:38:30 PM

Chill Hamilcar, please. Cheonan it's a political issue that require ration not emotions. Take on ideas not on persons, bring arguments to an idea.

It is so easy to say about a person that have an opinion (and miss a finger) that it's missing a finger, but what if that very same opinion is share buy a different person (and don't miss a finger)? Do you get my point? Maybe DA is competent, maybe he know more, or maybe other are competent and share the very same opinion with DA - what do you say to one like that, but about the opinion not person?



There are differences between Cheonan and Pueblo, big ones. Time and situation are different, too.

Does NorK intend to go to war? I don't think so.

Why the sunk of Cheonan? Birthday present? Revenge? Are someone crazy in charge in NorK? I don't think so.


What's next? By NorK, PRC, SouthK, USA ...

Unpredictability is good sometime ...


Those are more interesting then a person ... IMHO ...




I don't put much stock in someone who is all opinion and no fact.
Quote    Reply

Hamilcar    We are involved.   4/28/2010 9:41:08 PM

The Pueblo and the Cheonan are completely different. The one glaring thing is that. The Cheonana is not a US ship nor were there US citizens on board. Suggesting unilateral actions for something that we have no responsibility over is ludicrous. I can imagine the phone conversation now.


Obama: Hey Lee! Listen up, my bombers are hitting Pyongyang in 10 minutes.


Lee: What? But the North Koreans will destroy Seoul if they get attacked! Why didn't you discuss this with me?


Obama: Listen, we do what we want. I suggest you get to your bunker now, you've got 8 minutes. Don't worry about the nukes, the North Koreans can only hit your country, I'll be fine. Oh, see you on Saturday for tee off. You owe me lunch from last time, btw. Ciao!


Yah that's going to go over real smooth.

We are the RoKs chief ally, just as the PRC bandits are the DPRK's ally and sponsor. This is not a carve out situation.
Quote    Reply