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Subject: What if Taiwan is under PLA control
YelliChink    7/22/2011 1:23:47 PM
This is a discussion about what PLA would do had they had control of Taiwan and Penghu (Pescadores).
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YelliChink       7/22/2011 1:53:47 PM
Strategic Missile Command (PLA2A):
Obtaining Taiwan will not give much more advantage for PLA2A. However, by deploying DF-21 to Taiwan, they can consolidate their threat to US base in Guam and Okinawa. DF-31A can also be deployed on the island, and, in theory, it can really reach LA.
Although SSBN and SSB forces belongs to PLAN, and strategic bomber forces are under PLAAF, they will be discussed here due to the strategic nature of those weapons system.
With Taiwan under their control, PLAN can effectively run Taiwan Strait as if its their own inner water. The ocean current, salination and behavior convergent zone at Fujian coast is rather complex, and Taiwan Strait is shallow and flat, which means that if they can safely operate sub bases there, they have better chance to evade USN surveilance operations. Having control of Taiwan also means they have direct passage to the Philippine Sea, which gives them access to the Pacific and potential launch much nearer west coast of CONTUS.
Although there is no report that PLAAF is building new strategic bombers of the size and capability of B-52 and B-2, with the new engine tech they have access to, they could if they want. The USAF used to maintain B-52 capability in CCK AFB in Taiwan. PLAAF could do the same. At least two other international airports are also capable of operating large aircraft.
Even without the future PLAAF strategic bombers, the newer H-6K with cruise missile capability and better Russian turbofan engines can cause a lot of havoc to US and Japanese bases as well. Combining H-6K with DH-10 missile, the effective range is up to 3000km.
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YelliChink       7/22/2011 2:22:20 PM
1. Taiwan is naturally superior radar station. Even at the flat lands of Western Taiwan, there are still high grounds which you can put radar station to monitor anything flying from sea level to 100,000ft. That would be even easier if your threat comes from East and North, which would be what PLA think they will be dealing with.
2. Penghu, which is half way between Kaohsiung and Xian-men, allows operation of a fleet of anti-sub corvettes under the cover of larger and more capable frigates. The airbases on both the islands and mainland can provide continuous air cover.
3. Radar-equiped HD-6 and PLAN maritime surv aircraft can extend their patrol over Bashi Strait and the Philippine Sea as well.
4. AWACS such as KJ-2000 and Y-8 Balance Beam (Y-8BB) can also operate from Taiwan. Although KJ-2000 is of limited numbers and most likely deployed around Beijing and Shanghai rather than Taiwan.
5. OTH and other ballistic missile early warning stationed in Taiwan can give better coverage to any launch event from the Philippines Sea. However, given the force structure and doctrine of the USN, that could be useless.
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phrank       7/22/2011 4:20:35 PM
I think more than anything it would give them a much larger area to claim to the surrounding seas. For the US it would make relations with China easier. I think very many in US government would be glad to have them taken over by Chine just to not have to deal with it. I think that what would matter more is if they took it and we did nothing, that would change the whole balance in the region. No matter how much you may hate to have to do it if you have a commitment to another country even if not written down to help defend them and don't the cost is very high. How would China change the way they deal with the countries around them if they thought that we would just sit by and do nothing no matter what they did?
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