|For a little background, Chris Devonshire-Ellis is a truly "old china hand" but alot more well-adjusted and realistic than most of the hardened old timers there. His tax and accounting consultancy business started in China but is expanding to India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc.
He is one old hand worth keeping up with:
His comment regarding "de-sinofication" of western outsourcing:
Well NHYRC, I think that may well occur. I can see definate signs that buyers are going elsewhere - India for sure, Vietnam. The reasons are many and varied but also to do with the on-going and irritating quality of the Chinese manufacturer to constantly provide inconsistant service, English-language communication difficulties, the on-going mood of the Chinese Govt to avoid a trade war with the US at all costs, and the fact that Washington seeks to strengthen it's ties with other nations (India especially). It's an Asian buying market now, not a Chinese one. 12 months and the Yuan will start to fall, growth will level out to 6% per annum and the first Chinese bankrupties will start to rear their heads. And that includes over-stated listed companies on the HKSE, Nasdaq and elsewhere. Chinese manufacturing is about to get a shock: Regional Competition is heating up. I've just had sixteen FIE's in South China tell us they are considering relocating to Chennai, and thats the tip of the iceberg.
Posted by: Chris Devonshire-Ellis | July 18, 2007 12:22 AM