There is no will for military action against Iran in any western
nation. You could barely get the publics
attention when they were holding military hostages. This whole incident will be framed as an
understandable mistake precipitated by US aggression against the Iranian
people. Additionally, the Iranians are
scoring countless media points for their “nobility” in returning the hostages
Already we’ve seen two major news stories that call out the US as
the final cause for the hostage situation.
Both the Independent article that was discussed yesterday and another
story implying US
sponsorship of terrorist organizations attacking Iranian targets laid the blame
at the doorstep of the US. These stories broke in western media sources,
WHILE the Iranians still paraded hostages on TV. The US took as much flak as the Iranians
for their actions!
We don’t even know what backroom deal sprung the
release. I give it a 50/50 shot that the
5 Iranian detainees in US
custody get released sometime in the next two months after the US has ascertained
their “innocence”. As far as I can tell,
the Iranian leadership has paid no price but has gained enormous domestic
prestige from this episode. Even the EU
couldn’t be bothered to support one of their own, and the US congress
couldn’t even issue a worthless condemnation.
The lack of any credible response by the west will ensure these provocative
actions not only continue, but escalate.
Ironically, I believe action against Iran now would play far less
favorably than before the entire crisis happened. The moment has passed.
At the end of the day, I think the last few days have ensured
that the Iranians will get nuclear weapons and there isn’t anything that the
west will do to stop it. The will of the
people and the political ruling elites just does not exist. Very sad.
And after their capture the 15 marines and sailors were subjected to random interrogation and rough handling, and faced constant psychological pressure.
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