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Subject: What on earth are the Liberals doing?
Volkodav    11/27/2009 2:06:55 AM
Didn't they learn anything from the last election? Don't they know you have to listen to the Australian Public in general, not just the extreme right of the NSW party if they want to be returned to power anytime soon? Morons, at least Howard had the brains to listen to the people and would compromise to satisfy the majority. Until the Libs rid themselves of the toxic minority (Abbot, Tuckey, Minchin and co)they will be unelectable. I was glad to see the back of Howard but I definately don't what the decade or more of Rudd we will cop if the Libs don't clean out their house soon. As it stands now the next election will likely decimate the Libs and the one after will see them claw back, hopefully with some new blood that actually has some talent instead to the selfish (brainless)ignorance being displayed by the rightwing ideologues who are screwing the party at the moment.
 
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StevoJH       11/27/2009 10:06:38 AM
As I just asked on T5C, is there anyone who actually supports the ETS? Just thought I'd put the question out there.
 
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Volkodav    Liberals facing election rout   11/27/2009 10:12:59 AM

THE Coalition faces an electoral wipeout at next year's federal election if the rebels led by Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin succeed in blocking the government's climate change legislation.

The Coalition could lose at least 20 of its metropolitan seats, including those of its leader, Malcolm Turnbull, Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey and climate change critics Kevin Andrews and Andrew Robb, according to an analysis of Newspoll results.

Mr Turnbull faces a leadership spill at a partyroom meeting called for 9am on Tuesday.

Mr Abbott is considered to be the frontrunner in any challenge, but there is also strong support for Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey.

Mr Hockey has said he will contest the leadership only if it is vacated by Mr Turnbull, who was digging in last night, saying he would remain Liberal leader until the party removed him.

Mr Turnbull believes that abandoning support for the compromise Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme would be fatal for the Coalition's electoral prospects.
According to the Newspoll analysis, support for the government's emissions trading scheme legislation is overwhelming among Coalition voters in metropolitan areas. Newspoll shows that 63 per cent of Coalition voters in the cities believe the government's bill should be passed, while only 28 per cent think it should be opposed.

If one in 10 of those voters changed sides because of a Coalition decision to block action on climate change, it would cost the Liberal Party the 20 metropolitan seats that it holds with margins of less than 6.5 per cent.

These findings are consistent with the Liberal Party's internal research in marginal seats, which shows that between 75 and 80 per cent of swinging voters favour action on climate change.

Senior party officials say the research shows a triumph by climate change sceptics would be "the death of the party".

Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannessy says the most worrying finding for the Coalition is that its voters aged 18 to 34 favour the government's legislation by a margin of almost five to one. The Newspoll survey, taken in mid-September, showed that 75 per cent of Coalition voters in this age group backed the bill, while only 17 per cent were opposed.

"It was a tremendous swing in that age group that put most of the energy behind the swing to Labor in 2007," Mr O'Shannessy said, noting that the same age group had also been important in the success of former prime minister John Howard.

"These people aren't rusted on to the Coalition, even though they say they're Coalition voters. They are clearly at risk."

The Newspoll analysis shows that Coalition seats are not safe in rural areas either. A clear, though much smaller, majority is also in favour of the government's bill.

In rural seats, Newspoll found that 41 per cent of Coalition voters were opposed to the government's emissions trading scheme bill while 50 per cent were in favour.

Whatever the Coalition does will lose votes in rural seats, but opposition to the climate change legislation would lose it more.

The Liberal Party's own research shows the strongest opposition to the government's bill is in the bedrock 35 per cent of the electorate that is its core support.

Many of these conservative voters share Senator Minchin's belief that there is no human-induced change to climate.

These are the voters who have been inundating MPs' offices with emails and phone calls, urging them to block the legislation.

However, the party's analysis of voters who supported the Coalition in 2007 but previously voted Labor, and former Coalition supporters who voted for a change of government at the last election, shows they massively favour action on climate change.

Election analyst Malcolm Mackerras said the Newspoll analysis is consistent with his own research, suggesting the Coalition would lose up to 20 seats, taking Labor's maj

 
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bigfella       11/27/2009 7:57:47 PM
The problem isn't just the ETS. A well led & united party could get away with not passing it by arguing the many & varied flaws it has - at the very least they could hold their own voters with a well argued case. I think this would be the riskier course in the current political climate, which is why even Howard eventually promised some sort of ETS. Riskier, but doable.
 
The real problem is that the party has had 2 crap leaders now & that anti-ETS crowd have decided to tear the party in two over this issue. Whatever Turnbull's other qualities, he is a poor politician. he has not only failed to make an impact on the voting public, but he can't run his own party. The fact that fringe players like Tuckey & even Andrews have been able to run with this issue is down to poor leadership. Had they been kept in line the likes of Minchin, Abbot & co. would have pulled their heads in. As it is they clearly think they have nothing much to lose by digging in on this.
 
By far the worst case scenario for the Libs is an Abbot win. This is what ALP folk like myself have dreamed about for years. Abbot would guarantee that this is a minimum 3 term government. The other two options are tricky. Turnbull staying on will still mean a bad loss next year, and perhaps 12 month of drift & infighting in the meantime. If he wins he will be weakened. On the upside, Hockey won't start his term as leader with a thumping loss. If Hockey gets the job he might be even more effective at limiting the damage next year, but it will make the following 3 years VERY long. The Libs don't have a history of sticking with failed leaders, though it is hard to see a ready replacement. This is the worst I can ever remember the Libs looking. Unless somethig remarkable happens they have 6 or 7 more years of this before they will even be a show at returning to power.
 
And finally to return to a personal hobby horse - this is largely Costello's fault. Had he stayed on as leader he could have set the policy direction for the party, put the militant right of the party back in its box & given someone like Turnbull more time to learn the business of politics before taking over. That could have contained the fallout at this election & made the next at least look winnable. Had he been prepared to endure the horrors of the back bench for another few months he would be the go to guy now to unite the party. Instead he preferred a cushy government job - point to Rudd. For the want of a spine the party was lost.   
 
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Aussiegunneragain       11/29/2009 7:46:45 AM
As a long term Liberal voter I find what is going on to be an embarressment. Abbot, Mitchin and Co have effectively destroyed the prospects of the Liberal Party being an effective opposition for in the lead up to this election, for the sake of fighting a battle on a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme what was already won by the ALP at the last election. I'm not  comfortable with Australia introducing a binding emissions reduction target before the rest of the World has committed to do so, but this is what the Australian people voted for in 2007 so the Libs really have no right to get in the way.
 
This is bad for the Liberal party as it will probably put them back further in terms of the numbers of seats that they have to make up to eventually win and to generate the critical mass of talent needed to maximise the chance of finding the next PM (we won't get him or her from the current crop of front benchers, save perhaps Dutton if he survives the next election). Even worse for the public as it means that the Rudd government isn't getting the scrutiny that it should for the things it is screwing up, like for example the $70 million Macklin spent on aboriginal housing without actually building a single house.
 
I can't see anything good coming out of what is going on. Turnbull has been destroyed, Hockey is really a liberal equivilent of Kim Beazley with brains and decency but no ticker, and Abbot is a religious nut and as it turns out from recent events a backstabbing one at that. If he becomes leader I'm switching my vote at the next election. I was going to go for this crowd > their committment to small government, but find that they are a bit too out on the gun totin' US style libertarianism for me. However, they were good enough to have a link to this lot > their website, so I think that this is where my first preference will go. I kinda like the irony of switching my vote away from a party which has a leader who epitomises government in your bedroom conservatism, to one pushing for sexual liberation.
 
I figure if as a Liberal voter I have to be f*cked then I'm going to make sure that I'm allowed to enjoy it.
\
 
 
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gf0012-aust       11/29/2009 1:40:27 PM
They've self assigned themselves to being in opposition for another 2 terms.  The fact that no-one in there has remembered that internal party discipline as done by both Howard and Rudd is the key to holding the line is a bit sad.

Hockey would be mad to want to step into the chair at this point in time.  Abbott is probably Labors best friend at the moment.
 
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bigfella       11/30/2009 2:45:10 AM

They've self assigned themselves to being in opposition for another 2 terms.  The fact that no-one in there has remembered that internal party discipline as done by both Howard and Rudd is the key to holding the line is a bit sad.



Hockey would be mad to want to step into the chair at this point in time.  Abbott is probably Labors best friend at the moment.


Hockey doesn't want it, but Minchin, Abbot & co. have given him some terrible choices. He can back Turnbull. The best case scenario here (for the Libs) is that Turnbull hangs on, weakened & loses some seats at the next election - potentially setting up 2 more terms. The worst case if he does this is that Abbot actually gets the numbers & Labor absolutely crushes the Libs at the next election - potentially setting up 3 more terms (a bit of a stretch, but give Labor a 30-40 seat majority, a shruken Liberal talent pool & more Liberal infighting & it might not be that crazy).
 
Either way, Hockey inherits a party in a mess after the next election, the question is the size of the mess. If Hockey does take over now at least he can mininize the damage. Sucks to be him right now.
 
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gf0012-aust       11/30/2009 3:13:53 AM
Sucks to be him right now.

He drops in to the local coffee shop on the way to the big house, and he's decidedly looking more and more burdened. 

Conversely Gillard goes bounding by in the mornings with her security detail looking quite energetic.... 

I feel sorry for the poor bugger as he is getting a poisoned chalice.  He's a genuinely nice bloke.

 
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StevoJH       11/30/2009 10:43:00 PM
Hockey out in the first round of voting, Abbot beat Turnbull by one vote.
 
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bigfella       12/1/2009 2:45:13 AM
 
YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Bigfella does happy dance around the office. Cats look a trifle concerned).
 
I have hoped & prayed for this day, but never in my wildest dreams did I beleive it would arrive. Talk about handing over the asylum to the lunatics. This is the best thing to happen to the ALP since Hawke took over & the worst thing the Libs have done since MacMahon became PM. Not only is the Mad Monk at the controls, but his backup is the invisible woman. & the party is split down the middle. And what philosophy does he bring to high office: "The job of an opposition is to oppose". Just perfect. Nothing swinging voters like more than mindless obstructionism. I'll wait for a few polls & some work from Malcolm Mackerras or Anthony Green, but this sets up the Libs for a wipeout at the next election. If labor shot itself in the foot with Latham, the Libs have just shot themselves in the head with Abbot. At least labor can claim they didn't know Latham was insane until after he got the job.
 
Peter Costello: the gift that keeps on giving.
 
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THEPUSSMK2       12/1/2009 3:19:15 AM


 

YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Bigfella does happy dance around the office. Cats look a trifle concerned).

 

I have hoped & prayed for this day, but never in my wildest dreams did I beleive it would arrive. Talk about handing over the asylum to the lunatics. This is the best thing to happen to the ALP since Hawke took over & the worst thing the Libs have done since MacMahon became PM. Not only is the Mad Monk at the controls, but his backup is the invisible woman. & the party is split down the middle. And what philosophy does he bring to high office: "The job of an opposition is to oppose". Just perfect. Nothing swinging voters like more than mindless obstructionism. I'll wait for a few polls & some work from Malcolm Mackerras or Anthony Green, but this sets up the Libs for a wipeout at the next election. If labor shot itself in the foot with Latham, the Libs have just shot themselves in the head with Abbot. At least labor can claim they didn't know Latham was insane until after he got the job.

 

Peter Costello: the gift that keeps on giving.


Ditto mate Ditto! :P. I am going to enjoy immensely watching this train wreck unfold over the coming months. God I hope I?m not at sea on election day because I want to set myself on my recliner couch with chips and ALOT of beer and watch the carnage.
 
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