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Subject: Teflon Iran-nothing sticks
Herc the Merc    3/29/2007 7:36:04 PM
Why Iran gets away with anything ?? Iran, basically a backward country in military surrounded by UK & US military blatantly kidnaps 15 British sailors and Tony Blairs spokesman says "Please" let them go. Russia and China approve mild sanctions, India positively goes way out there to keep 'em happy,France's Chirac says let them have a few nukes, Israelis shout from rooftops but do nothing--Why?? Ain't no stopping the Ayatollahs!!!
 
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xylene       3/31/2007 12:20:59 AM
I think the great Western powers have played brinksmanship for so long they forgot when and when not to fight. It's no secret I was against the Iraq invasion, but that does not mean I am opposed to using military force to counter aggression. Iran's assumption is that the West will not fight.  Iran needs to get it's nose bloody and quick. It needs to lose something valuable and realize they may lose more until the British are released.
 
- A siezure of Kharg Island.
- Siezure of Iranian ships , the cargo and vessels to be held as a lien until sailors are returned.
- Blockade
 
Do one or all of the above and be resolute. Make Iran and the world understand we will not give in until demands are met. If China wants that Iraninan heavy crude they better convince the Iranians to release the sailors, since US and UK ambassadors refuse to discuss the issue. 
 
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sofa       3/31/2007 9:03:06 AM
Blockade & shutoff pipeline. No imports and no exports. No oil revenue. Let them watch the Saudis cash in when Iran makes trouble!
 
Then hit the one refinery. No gas.
 
Oil works both ways - It is their weakness. They need the cash. They need the gas.
 
When France still trades with them, publicly spank and humiliate France! (Russia and China not so easy.)
 
 
 
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Clausewitz    The west should attackm at teh time of it's own choosing !   4/1/2007 7:46:24 AM
The west - the US and maybe the UK - will attack iranian nuke facilities at the time of their own choosing. The facilities need no have produced some uranium/plutonium so that they contaminated. I do not tink that any diplomatic solution is likley (but not impossible too). There is a lot of leaked informatin out  there. But it very likley that we see air strikes and raids against iranian nuke facilities. This war would escalate only if the mullahs choose to do. But what they should fight for when the nuke facilities are gone the the mullahs bomb delayed for a least ten years? Two weeks of air strikes at civilian targets like refineries, brigdes, oil drills, electricity infratstructure, the water distribution system, the communication network, ... would bring the iranian economy to a standstill. First many iranians will unite behind the ´mullahs for a some time. After that they will choose a moderate gevernment because the conservative mullahs lead the country into nowhere. Maybe civil war will be the consequenze. After the nuke facilities are gone that civil war would just be for the news. Let's stay out of it and be entertained.
 
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reefdiver       4/1/2007 2:14:08 PM

The west - the US and maybe the UK - will attack iranian nuke facilities at the time of their own choosing. The facilities need no have produced some uranium/plutonium so that they contaminated. I do not tink that any diplomatic solution is likley (but not impossible too). There is a lot of leaked informatin out  there. But it very likley that we see air strikes and raids against iranian nuke facilities. This war would escalate only if the mullahs choose to do. But what they should fight for when the nuke facilities are gone the the mullahs bomb delayed for a least ten years? Two weeks of air strikes at civilian targets like refineries, brigdes, oil drills, electricity infratstructure, the water distribution system, the communication network, ... would bring the iranian economy to a standstill. First many iranians will unite behind the ´mullahs for a some time. After that they will choose a moderate gevernment because the conservative mullahs lead the country into nowhere. Maybe civil war will be the consequenze. After the nuke facilities are gone that civil war would just be for the news. Let's stay out of it and be entertained.


I'm starting to agree with this view somewhat. I personally believe that phased sanctions leading up to a full embargo and even a blockade would be the way to start all this, but thats impossible with Russia, China, and perhaps France. If the EU, UK, and US would unilaterally impose these sanctions I think it would also be effective and also perhaps forment a civil war in Iran. But again, I don't think its possible to see such unity among the West. So I'm where you seem - let the US and the UK bomb the heck out of them and let the Iranians fight it out among themselves - which they surely will. 
The world however seems to fear what the Iranians have threatened to do around the world.  The mullahs may threaten to unleash their terrorist forces around the world, but I wonder if after attacks by the US and UK their leadership and funding might not be so disrupted that such efforts would be ineffective. Iran would cease to have the funds to support such activities for some time.  The Saudis and other Gulf Countries including Iraq, as well as Russia would suddenly grow richer - and probably invest in weaponry to the detriment of Iran. Iran might take a decade or more to recover. 
 
Additionally, if Civil War takes hold in Iran, the US could fund the moderates. The radicals would have lost much of their funding except for what they had on hand. Whatever the outcome, Iran would have a very tough time funding terrorism around the world for a substantial period of time. And maybe that alone makes it all worth doing.
 
All of this however really bugs me because once again, if Russia, China, France and Germany would really choose to help solve the Iranian problem and through the UN enact extremly harsh financial sanctions, it could be solved very quickly without war from the West. None of this pointless years of weak diplomatic negotiating is helping.   Instead, thanks especially to Russia and China, the UN has become part of the problem. I have virtually no hope they will solve it.
 
 
 
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