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Subject: Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet
FJV    6/12/2006 1:56:29 PM
Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet
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S-2    RE:Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet   6/14/2006 4:15:32 PM
Excellent read. Much to consider but, most interestingly, the spiritual aspect that the return of the Madhi plays- at least according to Luttwak. Also the historical backdrop to American-Iranian relations. Many here have mentioned the U.S. government's (C.I.A.'s) involvement in the royalist coup of 1953 as a source of bitter anti-Americanism within Iran. They do so while willfully ignoring other less virulent elements of the U.S.-Iran entente. There was a pretty detailed paper out of the National Defense University about 10 months ago that I've bandied about here with a similar conclusion as Luttwak's. It may come to airstrikes, but the technical impediments that Iran still faces are considerable and lengthy. We do have some time yet, I believe.
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FJV    RE:Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet   6/14/2006 5:09:10 PM
And then there is to consider how genuine pro America attitudes are in Iran. Because pro US sentiments piss the mullahs off the most, one could argue that Iranian pro US statements are more based on hatred of mullahs, than actual symphaty for the US. Since I'm not an Iran expert it would be hard to tell what amount is due to genuine good will towards the US and what amount of pro US statements comes from haating the mullahs.
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Shirrush    RE:Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran—Yet   6/14/2006 5:50:24 PM
Thank you very much FJV for the Luttwak paper. It's a very good read and I feel I have managed to learn a thing or two from it. There are, however, a couple of assumptions that could prove to be fatally flawed. The first is, of course, the belief that engineering and managerial hurdles are causing the Iranian nuclear weapons program lengthy delays, and that there is still time to stop it. The other one, which is very understandable and could be called the Los Angeles factor (or the Holon factor depending on where you're standing...), is the undefectible belief in the growing unpopularity and unstability of the mullah's regime. This is clearly influenced by the large Iranian exile community that the author is no doubt in contact with, and could prove to be no more than the usual wishful thinking à la Prince Reza. I tend to agree, however, with the general opinion expressed in the article, that Iran, Iranian culture, and the Iranian people, are natural allies of the West, and that the present political situation is an anomaly that will be somehow remediated.
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