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Subject: EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario
mightypeon    9/14/2005 11:25:31 AM
Well, such a thing has been debated quite often, but never with a semirealistc Scenario in mind. Lets just go with the following quite random timeline: 2005/2006: several minor annoyances and trade disagreements happen between Europe and the USA. Bsuh, who is figures that he needs a populartiy boost seeks a spacegoat and starts a Nation wide Germany and France bashing campaign. Beeing bashed by Bush promtply leds to the reelection of Chancellor Schroeder. Spring 2006: The European Iranian talks come to a break, Iran stops its Nuclear programm as well as the support of terrorist groups in Israel, in exchange it gains a host of European arms. Amongst them is a shipment of 400 Leopard 2A4 tanks (in fact, Iran gets the Europane equipment the Europeans would have exchanged or upgraded enyway) In addition, the Iranians grant European companies first rights in developing Iranian Oil fields. Summer 2006 While the irani army is getting trained with their new equipment, a heavy shiite uprising breaks out in eastern Irak. The Shiites demand to be a part of Iran, the rebellion is crushed by the US military. 11.09.06 The US are hit by Terroists. The Gouverment claims Iran to be the culprit. The forces that just crushed the Shiite Rebellion in eastern Irak move up the border. Seeing a hole in the Iranian defense, an US general asks for permission to invade and gets it. While diplomatic conuselatins are still ongoing, the US troops overwhelm the tactically suprsied and not fully trained Irani border forces with minimal losses. The US imprisons the equally suprised European staff still teaching the Iranis. 18.09.06: While US forces are making further progress into Iran, the EU demands the freedom of its instruction staff. 19.09.06: Bush says "that the Europeans can kiss his behind" in an Interview. 20.09.06: German troops surround US bases in Germany. 21.09.06 Seeing America is distracted, Shiite rebels in Irak rise up again. All European powers cancel any overflight rights to the US that have been previously in place. A violent Mob lynches several Germans in a rural american willage, the local police stands by, of course this leads to another uproar in the EU. 22.09.06 With aid from local rebels, a British officer of Pakistani origin manages to escape his prison camp. He shoots a GI while doing so. 23.09.06 The American advance is stalled by logistal problems and constant partisan warfare. 24.09.06 Rumors inclince that the runaway British officer is activly particiapting in the Irani resistance. Pakistan cancel its cooperation with the US. 25.09.06 Under the cover of bad weather, the Iranis start are quick, dedicated and determined counter offensive against the US forces. The US line is breached. The way of the attack implies the Iranis had satellite info on the American positions, as well as human intelligence sources in the American army. In addition, the attack was carefully cordinated with partisan activites in the Ameriakn rear. The American gouverment blames the EU on the defeat and threatens consequences. Schroeder is cited saying "America and which army?" in a private circle. 26.09.05 A massive American airstrike takes out a lot of Irans ammunition producing facilites. Several EU cititzens are killed during the attack. Due to a misprinted order, a imprisoned European instructor is sent to Guantanamo because he shares the name of a terrorist. 27.09.06 The interment of a European instructor interred in Guantanamo is leaked to the BBC. Diplomatic relations between the EU countries and the USA are severed. China proclaims its neutrality in an eventual conflict. Fistfights break out before American Baracks in Germany. 28.09.06 Backed up by reeinforcements, the US manage to flank the Irani force. Hoping on the fact that the US have other problems to take care off, Iran offers peace talks. 29.09.06 A first ceasefire between Iran and the USA is concluded. Iran sends some "terrorists" to the US and labels them as the bad evil instigators. 30.09.06 The US refuses to return the still held instructors. The EU ulitmativly demand the return of the instructors. German troops move into 2 logistical US bases in Germany and arrest the American troops. 01.10.06 Led by a overly rash American Colonell, a Batallion of bradleys fires at approaching German troops. Beeing led by an equally rash German Oberst, the Leopard 2A6 MBTs fire back. The USA and Europe are at war. Now that we have a Scenario, what would be your predictions?
 
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GOP    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 11:35:10 AM
My prediction is that France surrenders, we make a deal with Germany to give them France, Germany promises more US bases and free chocalate in return.
 
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french stratege    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 12:11:52 PM
First you need to extend your thread because a single military clash do not lead to war.German crushed quickly and massively European US forces for exemple. This would never happened immediately.Not without a build up to counter US. My prediction is France assemble quickly 1500 nukes and share its deterrent with Germany and both start to disperse facilities and mass produce weapons. Germany avoid still war as we are not ready A joint comand force is established with German and Russian which are also upset by US threatening their south borders. US is not still reacting by force. THEN we can crush US forces in Europe if they refuse to leave and to be disarmed.
 
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mightypeon    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 12:58:48 PM
Well, once Tanks start shooting at each other it usually is war. Especially if they do so in front of CNN/BBC/ARD whatever, which surely would be the case in a close range firefight taking place in a Barack. The premise of the whole things is: a) both sides did not particiapate in any special preperations for this war b) both sides have a strong motive which will insure public support for a while c) it is not possible that 2 democracys wage war on each other without some kind of "rush of events", so, it is doubtfull that there will be a long buildup. As the US would be tangled up in Irak, or be in Germany surrounded by German forces, I would bet on the Europeans in this matter.
 
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Bluewings    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 2:06:58 PM
That thread is going to go pear shape very soon ... Cheers .
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 2:12:59 PM
>>>Well, once Tanks start shooting at each other it usually is war. Especially if they do so in front of CNN/BBC/ARD whatever, which surely would be the case in a close range firefight taking place in a Barack.<<< ---While this is true. Some people believe this is the time for UN Negotiations and all sides are honor bound to wait for the other to build up and 'get ready' for the conflict. I recommend you ignore these people as they are completely unfamiliar with war. Besides, its your thread and scenario. You decide...;) >>>The premise of the whole things is: a) both sides did not particiapate in any special preperations for this war b) both sides have a strong motive which will insure public support for a while c) it is not possible that 2 democracys wage war on each other without some kind of "rush of events", so, it is doubtfull that there will be a long buildup.<<< ---I hesitate to say impossible but it is most probable that if this were to happen it would be by suprise and out of a necessity that required rapid action. >>>As the US would be tangled up in Irak, or be in Germany surrounded by German forces, I would bet on the Europeans in this matter.<<< ---I would consider the phrase "tangled up in Iraq" to be polemic and not conducive to objectivity. Just a bit of advice. I am studying your original post after which I will reply.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 3:02:07 PM
>>>The USA and Europe are at war. Now that we have a Scenario, what would be your predictions?<<< ---Under the scenario you described, here is what would most likely happen. Just before or right after 20.09.06, EU satellites would start disappearing or experiencing technical difficulties. The sudden shift to over hostility between the EU and the US would be similar to the US-Soviet breakdown. To the extent possible US forces would consolidate and elevate the local THREATCON according to the situation. The appearance of German troops THIS SOON would mean that it was a OOTB type operation and would not be likely to have the proper ratio for a direct offensive against US forces. But the Germans could block access to the US bases in most cases. These circumstances are covered by JP 3-12 and the local commanders would be likely to request permission to employ nuclear weapons just as they would have if the Soviets reached this far west. But the difference is that the Soviets would have been expecting a nuclear attack. Germany and the EU because of the rapidity of the sequence of events you describe would not be ready. This is significant because so much of the EUs forces would not have had time to disperse and would be highly vulnerable to counterforce strikes against nuclear and non-nuclear forces. There are over 400 nuclear weapons in Europe now. All of them within minutes of potential targets in Germany and elsewhere if necessary. And we arent even talking about US Strategic weapons. So Germany would have to stand down of face a nuclear strike and/or invasion. This is where the conflict would most likely end as German military advisors make the Chancellor aware of these fact. The most likely outcome based on your scenario would be a humiliating political defeat for the EU or a nuclear war ultimately resulting in a US victory.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:EU/USA War, based on a specific scenario   9/14/2005 3:14:15 PM
"The most likely outcome based on your scenario would be a humiliating political defeat for the EU or a nuclear war ultimately resulting in a US victory." Depends if its a Republican or a Democrat in office. The Republican would follow the PREPLANNED US doctrine of Nuclear warfare. The Democrat would spend his time trading things away, unless there was a massive slaughter of US troops, then all bets are off.
 
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jlb    RE:EU/USA War, going nuclear   9/14/2005 8:21:34 PM
there's no such thing as a purely military target for a nuclear warhead, however small its yield, in Western Europe. If US forces went nuclear in this scenario, there would be retaliatory strikes on CONUS. It would simply be madness! Remember, this is not Iraq or even China you're talking about. France has 288 warheads on patrol at all times, and one of their purposes is precisely to make potential ennemies think twice before crossing the nuclear threshold.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:EU/USA War, going nuclear - jib   9/14/2005 8:33:27 PM
>>>there's no such thing as a purely military target for a nuclear warhead, however small its yield, in Western Europe.<<< ---Absurd, thats why you have variable yields. >>>If US forces went nuclear in this scenario, there would be retaliatory strikes on CONUS. It would simply be madness!<<< ---Compared to the EU madness described in the scenario? Not hardly and it is official doctrine if you refer to the document I mentioned. >>>Remember, this is not Iraq or even China you're talking about. France has 288 warheads on patrol at all times, and one of their purposes is precisely to make potential ennemies think twice before crossing the nuclear threshold.<<< ---Doesnt matter who it is. There is no clause in the policy excluding EU nations if they act in this manner. Actually its less than 200 on patrol most of the time. A single Ohio has approximately the same and there are 14 of them. Do the math. Thats thousands of warheads not even counting the 480 or so aircraft delivered weapons prepositioned in the EU only minutes away from targets and CONUS based weapons with number in the many thousands ready to launch on warning. Read the OFFICIAL policy if you have any doubts about the outcome I have shown you.
 
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french stratege    jlb   9/14/2005 8:34:01 PM
There is small targets for small nukes in Europe but we would retaliate on tactical level, then on CONUS is US does escalation.Europe will not go to war agaisnt US without scaling up massively its nuclar weapons arsenal during build up.France alone have already industrial capacity to produce 300 M45 mobile land based per year with their warheads.So after a year of grave tense, US will face a threat of 1500 nukes to go on their territory at least in case of going to war. France alone has enought reserve of fissile materials for 40 000 nukes already : see site of International Atomic Energy Agency. Total nuke in Europe could go up to 20 000 at least in two years (most fission tactical nukes).
 
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