Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Lithuanian/Polish/Ukrainian Increased Cooperation
singularity    11/19/2009 12:37:06 PM
Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/6589547/Lithuania-Poland-and-Ukraine-create-a-joint-military-brigade.html). According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement. It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT
Godofgamblers       11/20/2009 9:46:39 PM



Of course Germany sees Poland and the Baltic states as a buffer, but does that mean were not going to defend our Allies ? 



the fact that the russians have started to rewrite WW2 history again should be concern for everyone.  You'd be aware that they recently started saying that it was the Poles who triggered the conflict with Russia in WW2 - aka the Russians were aggrieved innocents.



when that kind of rubbish coming from countries is getting offered as a "truth" then all should be concerned.  its no wonder that the other baltics and central europeans want nothing to do with them and seek to be in an alternative community.




the sooner the russians get over their inferiority complex and start looking at their neighbours with respect, then the sooner that everyone else will relax.













I recently saw in the Polish press that Russian academics are claiming that the Poles had a non aggression agreement with the Germans and thus there was nothing intrinsically wrong with the Molotov Ribbentrop treaty (i don't know what treaty the Russians are referring to... will have to look it up)..... this is patent revisionism.... the Poles DO tend to overreact to Russian claims but ones like this are a bit much... i'm sure i could rip apart this Russian claim, but i just don't have the time!
 
Quote    Reply

gf0012-aust       11/21/2009 4:46:00 AM
the Poles DO tend to overreact to Russian claims but ones like this are a bit much... i'm sure i could rip apart this Russian claim, but i just don't have the time!

well, considering that russians had both poland and czechoslovakia populated with blue flags for their drivge through western europe during the cold war - then the poles have every right to ark up at the russians.  (blue flags were because they were prepared to use tactical nukes on then when they pushed forward.)  Kuklinksi makes it clear in his memoirs what the russian intent was.

as for the russians, perhaps they need to look at Rapollo before they start preaching to others.  they're being cute by half when they do things like this.


 
Quote    Reply

singularity       11/21/2009 10:41:39 AM
Nasty German Idiot- In my comments I was commenting on how Germany is using Poland as a buffer state so that if Germany did ever go to war with Russia the fighting would not be on its soil and most of the casualties would be Polish. This is similar to what Godofgamblers was talking about with Poland using Ukraine as the front lines. This is the cost that Poland would bear in return for joining European political and military structures such as EU and NATO. Of course the benefits (investments in infrastructure and economic growth, increases in freedoms and quality of life and some measure of security) far outweighed those benefits and costs of going it alone or remaining on the former Soviet side in my opinion. In its own interest Poland should want Ukraine tied to these organizations as well. Ukraine on the other hand would have to bear the cost of being on the front but would be able to develop much more rapidly because of the resources NATO and EU countries would invest in it and because of the structural changes it would have to undergo to join these organizations. For Germany the benefit of Ukraine joining would be smaller than it was for Poland joining and the costs (Germany provides more funds than it receives in the EU) would be greater because of Ukraine's level of development. For France, the benefits would be even smaller, so I can see why those two countries would be against Ukrainian integration at least at the time.
 
gf0012-aust-I agree that Russia (or most specifically its political elite) have some sort of superiority/inferiority complex. They feel they are above joining Europe because they feel they are not "just another" European country, but at the same time they do not feel as powerful as the US or the other growing major players (India and China). This leads to them making such claims on WWII because they feel they are a sort of superpower but cannot enforce their claims on others without a great deal of subtlety and propaganda. If Ukraine were to join and prosper, perhaps it would be more of an incentive for Russia to join Europe and make more of a positive impact on global and regional issues. This would truly be an amazing development as a truly democratic and capitalistic Russia would improve the lives of tens of millions. However, I don't see that happening unless Russian power continues to weaken substantially in relation to the US, EU,China and India.
 
YelliChink- I think you may be right about the pro-Russian side winning in January especially because of the severe recession in Ukraine. However, if slow growth continues until the next elections, then the benefits of the pro-European side will seem very attractive again.
 
 
Quote    Reply

singularity       11/21/2009 10:51:35 AM
Godofgamblers- I am intrigued by your modified waterway hedgehog defense. I will have to digest that for a bit. I feel in this scenario intelligence and cyberwarfare capabilities would be a very strong asset to wreak all sorts of havoc and sabotage and am trying to find out the strengths of either side. I know the Soviet Union had a massive amount of spies and wonder how many of those are still in place. From a cyberwarfare perspective, it seems there was at least some sort of Russian involvement in the attacks on Estonian (after the statue controversy) and Georgian websites (during the war). However, I feel Russia spends a large amount of its defense budget on nuclear weapons and trying to maintain its conventional arms. The smaller countries feel the need to specialize and may have developed those capabilities to a greater extent (ex. NATO cyber defense center in Estonia). There is also a greater amount of broadband and computer penetration in these societies so there may be a larger pool of potential hackers to recruit from (although there may be more targets to attack).
 
Quote    Reply

Godofgamblers    sto lat tez:)   11/21/2009 7:28:20 PM
Another example of the defensive system i am talking about is the box system invented by General Willima Sliim in WW2 that precluded the need for supply lines:
 
"The basic premise was that off-road mobility was paramount: much heavy equipment was exchanged for mule- or air-transported equipment and motor transport was kept to a minimum and restricted to those vehicles that could cope with some of the worst combat terrain on Earth. The new doctrine dictated that if the Japanese had cut the lines of communication, then they too were surrounded. All units were to form defensive 'boxes', to be resupplied by air and assisted by integrated close air support and armour. The boxes were designed as an effective response to the tactics of infiltration practiced by the Japanese in the war. Slim also supported increased offensive patrolling, to encourage his soldiers to lose both their fear of the jungle and also their belief that Japanese soldiers were better jungle fighters...They were supplied by air—negating the importance of their lost supply lines. The Japanese forces were able to defeat the offensive into Arakan, but they were unable to decisively defeat the allied forces or advance beyond the surrounded formations. While the Second Arakan Offensive ended in failure, it proved tactics that were very effective against the Japanese."
 
Quote    Reply

Thomas       11/22/2009 5:39:58 PM
In the event of a Russian attack on Poland, Russia will have to consider following contingencies:
 
1) Mining St. Petersburg and Kaleningrad. Though the Baltic States have no strategic depth, Nato - combined with a secured Baltic Sea has. Believe me, there are a lot of ferries and roro ships ready to transport reinforcements to the Baltic Nations - and they have a very nasty defensive terrain.
 
2) A defense in depth in Poland - with Germany as the tactical reserve, and the US as the strategic.
 
3) An attack from Norway on Murmansk to keep the Atlantic clear of interference.
 
Neither of these countermeasures are particularly difficult to implement; but very difficult to prevent.
Please note: Airdefence and offensive tactical aircraft are not stationed in the Baltic states - and they have no air force, for precisely this reason.
 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       11/22/2009 5:48:41 PM
I am Lithuanian. So i am not completely objective on this but...
Ukraine is like some marking point if it's invaded or for some reason form an alliance with Russia we are screwed. Russians will feel unaposed and will go to the empire building craze once more (in one form or another)
Czechs openly sayed we are unimportant, Italians are pro-russians, germans are anti-war, US? bring 10 000 boys in a bodybags for a country 2/3 of americans cant find on the map?.. British-french? hmm Finland and Czechoslovakia ringing from 1939..Poland would attempt to sit it out (maybe they wont touch us?). Its not like poles would like to see german-russian battlefield in the middle of poland. So really who will come to our aid if russian tanks start pouring into Lithuania? Nobody.
UN-Nato strong worded resolution and sanctions. yupyy! I dont think that we would get any regular unit from any country. Maybe some cheaper ammunition from somewhere if we are lucky. But mostly words instead of guns.
It was big mistake to shift from conscription to professional army in Lithuania. Its not a possitive thing in our situation. And there is like a fashion thing to spent few of our remaining euros on mechanization/mobility etc. It's good for peace-keeping but not for the defence of our country. Those transport planes APC's and anything that isn't man portable (jeep portable at most ) is worthless- will be gone in the first air strikes since we have no means to defend our airspace  and 2 nato fighters in our country would be under ROE to do nothing...( its not like they can do sth) [ In 2005 russians tested NATO response time. su-27 'accidentally' penetrated our airspace and was circling around in Lithuania until it crashed (from lack of fuel) NATO fighters failed to respond ]
So my thoughts that should  we be learning from Iraqies how to fight the war. Sniper rifles and roadside bombs will be weapons in our next war ( believe thats only the matter of time..) not NATO fighters or Leopards or whatever...
And i am paranoid as much as i need to be for the guy whose first childhood memmories are of russian soldiers shooting unarmed people in the street.

sry for my bad english

 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne    @Thomas   11/22/2009 6:00:59 PM
1) Mining St. Petersburg and Kaleningrad. Though the Baltic States have no strategic depth, Nato - combined with a secured Baltic Sea has. Believe me, there are a lot of ferries and roro ships ready to transport reinforcements to the Baltic Nations - and they have a very nasty defensive terrain.
What nasty defensice terrain? its mostly plains..some woods mostly perfect tank  for tank mobility. And road network is as good as in the rest of europe few hours of pleasant tank drive to any Baltic capital from russian garrison. Only urban and wooded areas are good for any form of resistance..and Baltics arent the most urbanized countries. So the fighting would be only around some isolated point of resistance..nothing few FOAB's could take care of 2-3 days and it will all be over....5 days if we are lucky..after that there would be nobody to save. Puppets goverments would happilly join russia  or invite russian peace-keepers to protect russian minorities ( there is no such thing as russians epace keepers)
 
Quote    Reply

Godofgamblers       11/22/2009 9:31:31 PM


1) Mining St. Petersburg and Kaleningrad. Though the Baltic States have no strategic depth, Nato - combined with a secured Baltic Sea has. Believe me, there are a lot of ferries and roro ships ready to transport reinforcements to the Baltic Nations - and they have a very nasty defensive terrain.


What nasty defensice terrain? its mostly plains..some woods mostly perfect tank  for tank mobility. And road network is as good as in the rest of europe few hours of pleasant tank drive to any Baltic capital from russian garrison. Only urban and wooded areas are good for any form of resistance..and Baltics arent the most urbanized countries. So the fighting would be only around some isolated point of resistance..nothing few FOAB's could take care of 2-3 days and it will all be over....5 days if we are lucky..after that there would be nobody to save. Puppets goverments would happilly join russia  or invite russian peace-keepers to protect russian minorities ( there is no such thing as russians epace keepers)



Nocturne, welcome to strategypage and your English is quite excellent. Tell me then, what is the Lithuanian view on the Union of Lublin... did it favor Poland or Lithuania? Or both? How is it taught in schools now?
thx
 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       11/23/2009 9:38:27 AM
Union of Lublin did favour Poland.  i think everyone in Lithuania agrees on this. In the past it was tought in a very negative way like a prelude to downfall. This negative feeling was strongly influenced by polish trying to reastablish some kind of union by force in 1919-1920( mostly because of attack and capture of lithuanian capital Vilnius). After that there was no love left despite centuries of common and even u might say friendly history. Now union is portrayed not in such bad light some good, some negatvie points.
Good: we needed the union because it would have been very hard maybe too hard to defend the country and go forward alone. 
Bad: union turned to favour poland and we somehow become younger brother ( this was kidna confirmed by the fact that after wwI poland tryed to force Lithuania back into the union) and probably the stongest 'bad factor' from two strong kingdoms ( technically Lithuania was called Grand Duchy but whatever..) we created a giant unable to control itself, rule itself, reform which led to  the downfall of  both nations.

In my opinon Union in itself wasnt a bad thing just it turned wrong way somewhere. Maybe Poland came out of it quite good but Lithuania didn't.
 
Quote    Reply
PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics