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Subject: Lithuanian/Polish/Ukrainian Increased Cooperation
singularity    11/19/2009 12:37:05 PM
Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/6589547/Lithuania-Poland-and-Ukraine-create-a-joint-military-brigade.html). According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement. It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).
 
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Cybernuke       12/27/2009 1:29:30 AM
To tell you the truth I think Ukraine alone can withstand a Russian attack or at least make it costly. My evidence is the South Ossetian War where tiny Georgia took down 3 Su-25s and 1 Tu-22 with what is believed to be SA-11 Buk-1M. I am not entirely sure how many SA-11s Georgia had but Ukraine by far has many more. Its air defenses might not be top notch but against a Russian Air Force with inadequate maintenance and training it isn't needed. Ukraine has 100 SA-15s, a significant number of SA-11s , and to top it off they have S-300s. There isn't a doubt Ukraine can defend its airspace though we don't know how much of its equipment is in working condition.
On the ground, Russia has an advantage of having a core of volunteer troops (with experience) and having the T-90 MBT which I assume is better than the T-84 Ukraine uses.  But, the distance between Russian bases to Ukraine gives Ukraine the edge. We saw in the South Ossetian War the further Russian forces got from home bases the harder it was to organize attacks. Russia also exhibited, well, bad intelligence. There were points in the conflict were they didn't know where the enemy was. Ukraine can use that to their advantage. 
Ukraine's air force worries me. It's falling apart; upgrades are needed. The Mig-29 is the best aircraft I see. If it was the case of Poland and Lithuania coming to Ukraine's aid they are going to need to put up some aircraft. Ukraine does have a nice helicopter fleet of Mi-17s, Mi-24s, and Mi-26s. But, without interceptors to protect them they would be useless.
Finally, Russia has that Black Sea fleet on Ukraine's front door. Ukraine doesn't really have a fleet to compete. Therefore Ukraine needs an air force to deal with them. But, as I said earlier the Air Force doesn't look great. In fact everything depends on Ukraine increasing its defense budget, cutting its soldiers, usher in professional soldiers, scrap unneeded weaponry, and transform its Air Force into a competent and lethal force. I emphasize the last.
 
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cwDeici       12/27/2009 9:30:26 PM

Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/6589547/Lithuania-Poland-and-Ukraine-create-a-joint-military-brigade.html)." target="_blank">link According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement.
It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).

The US would help Ukraine. Thus Ukraine wins.
Ukraine will not develop nukes because they need American friendship and European trade.
 
In the meantime the eastern bloc will continue to grow and mature.
 
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cwDeici       12/27/2009 9:31:55 PM
Ukraine alone loses after a long dragged out war.
Ukraine with weapon support and western financing pushes back and wins the war...
 
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