Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Will Germany rise again??
Necromancer    11/27/2008 9:27:13 PM
If USA withdraws from EU.
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2
le_corsaire       12/10/2008 7:52:39 AM

  Germany has got some major problems, although it is the EUs largest and most powerful economy right now.

 First,  noticed the way Merkel has been sucking up to Putin by her objection to NATO expansion and over Georgia. This is because 43 percent of Germany?s total natural gas consumption coming from Russia. Russia has used many excuses to cutoff or raise the price of that product in the past to gain political leverage and it can do so again.   Germany?s economy like almost the rest of the world is in a down turn and can hardly afford and energy crisis right now so it has to yield to Russian pressure


Germany still has an industrial/manufacturing export based economy. While it does turn out electronics, nobody talks about buying German made software or computers. They are competing with the Asian tigers while at the same time they have an increasingly aging population demanding more social services and shrinking population/tax base to finance it. Exports accounting for 45 percent of its GDP, 11 percent for the United States, 29 percent for the United Kingdom, 30 percent for Russia, 28 percent for Italy and 27 percent for France), the German economy could be severely affected by a worldwide recession that undercuts the ability of other countries to buy its products.


 They have no central bank to coordinate their response to the economic crisis which unlike the US is not about subprime mortgages but Enron like accounting of bank loans to corporation and the banks overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans.  Add to this is Balkan/Baltic overexposure. (I know the Germans like to blame the US for their crisis but the German Leadership has a long tradition of blaming others for their problems to appease the masses) Germany has announced a 70 billion euro ($95 billion) bank capitalization plan and up to 400 billion euros ($543 billion) for interbank loan guarantees and a second bailout proposal for real estate giant Hypo to the tune of 50 billion euros ($67.9 Billion).  Put this up against a GDP of only about $2.5 Trillion.


Germany?s military while relatively well equipped is been in decline for years like most of Europe.


Where do you have this half-truth nonsense from ? Lets clarify a few points, becasue some of them are simply wrong:
a) Germany has economic problems like obviously everybody else does.
 
b) There is no big competition with the "Asian Tigers", as Germany's main exports are in industrial/productions goods (machinery, plant equipment, etc.), while most Asia countries export consumer goods.
 
c) Germany indeed does have a Central Bank (called Deutsche Bundesbank >>) and in fact they do coordinate response to the economic crisis, as EU nations have agreed upon that each nation is responsible to set up their own plans, however coordinated with the ECB and the other EU nations.
 
d) Enron like accounting in corporations ? Where does this nonsense from ? The primary problem at the current state is a re-financing problem (e.g. in the case of Hypo Real Estate - also this statement in your post is half-truth, as Hypo (the bank) is part of the UniCredit group and something totally different - the problem obviously was that they re-financed long-term debts with short term loans and due to the financial crisis, where no longer able to reniew these instruments as you might know that the market is amost "dead").
 
e) "Overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans" is again without any evidence. The problem currently is that even profitable corporations with full order books can no longer achieve re-financing becasue of the the credit crunch.
 
f) The "bailout program" in Germany is currently used by 15 banks (i.e. there are 15 applications currently). The largest portions of it are so called "Landesbanks" and indeed the reason is that these Landesbanks
 
Quote    Reply

le_corsaire       12/11/2008 2:34:35 AM

You talk about the NUMBERS of troops, funny you're a little short on accomplishments of the troops.  Kosovo was won with AMERICAN....not NATO and sure not GERMAN air power. And yes if you consider sitting around in kasernes watching the Kosovars purge the Serbs, or watch the Serbs chase the NATO forces out of north Kosovo to be an accomplishment, then by all means be proud.  You've accomplished much...of course it's not restoring Kosovo to anything like a democratic self-rule, unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, but hey you guys went and stood around a lot, and looked stunning in your outfits.

 

Look Britain has liberated South Iraq and fights in Afghanistan...the longest kill in sniper-land...Canadians at 2,500 metres...the Dutch, they're fighting in Afghanistan...the US we have medals of Honour in both theatres, IIRC.  What do you guys have.....900,000 bottles of beer to your credit...oh and some of you shouted "Sieg Heil" at the Minister of Defense when he visited the Balkans...a few "exposes" on the troops in Afghanistan...that's pretty thin gruel as compared to the efforts other nations, in the EU and outside the EU (Canada/Australia) have contributed.

 

As to why, well you know you guys didn't have to spend 1.5 TRILLION to integrate East Germany...in fact had you NOT done what yo did, you and East Germany would be a whole lot better off.  When you allowed the East German Mark parity with the West German Mark you blew it...and then you decided to transfer the Bundesrepublick's social, financial, and economic policies to East Germany.

 

Fine you made East Germany a part of West Germany, though the productivity of East Germany was far less than that of West Germany...just so the East Germans wouldn't feel "less than" the Westerners.  Well they were...West Germany had Mercedes, Ostis had the Trabi...and the result was massive unemployment and dislocation. Now Germany has trouble paying for its productive citizens, considering the economic/social policies of Germany, much less paying East Germans over $22/hour for work that ought to have been valued at much closer to $8-10 per hour.  Germany is in the boat it's in because you guys decided that you'd make Osti's "honorary" West Germans, even though they didn't have the economic infrastructure to justify it.  That was your call, but don't try to act as if it was inevitable, it wasn't.

 

So in Afghanistan you don't do much, in the Balkans you don't do much, and off Somalia it appears that your Rules of Engagement are going to prevent yo from doing much...sorry showing up to the soccer match, but not playing, isn't being on the team...its just showing up.  I'd like for Germany to do a little more than just show up.  Barring that please just don't show up. It's less cruel that way...

 

And let's don't talk about Afghanistan's "unpopularity."  Look dude you can disagree about Iraq, but Afghanistan is a very justifiable campaign, and it's in Europe's advantage too, but you guys aren't pulling your weight.  You are expecting, as usual, someone else to do the heavy lifting...Just like Kosovo, or the Balkans in general.  That was WHOLELY a European problem, and yet the Europeans didn't solve it...you waited for the US to take the lead and contribute the AWACS, the jamming air craft, the Stealth fighters, the Nimitz, and the precision-guided munitions that made the air campaign work.

 

As I say, I don't expect you to rise again, but how about you just do your part?  Contribute some troops that can shoot at the Taliban, and then send them to the South of Afghanistan to do some shooting...how about letting your 1,400 troops/sailors/airmen off Somalia behave in a proactive manner, to include shooting pirates.  How about the next time theres a bunch of nasty ethnic cleansing going on in EUROPE and the refugees are flooding Italy, Austria, and other EU nations that Germany and the EU nations ACTUALLY SOLVE THE PROBLEM?

 

I'm not asking that you contribute a Korps to invade Iraq...or ask that you devote 5% of GNP to defense.  No, I'm asking you to contribute a BRIGADE to Afghanistan, and let it be available, if needs must, to fighting...that you sort out European problems without resort to AMERICAN power-dealing with Russia is not a wholly European problem BTW and we're glad to help you guys in dealing with Putin's Imperialis
 
Quote    Reply

ambush       12/11/2008 9:18:21 AM



  Germany has got some major problems, although it is the EUs largest and most powerful economy right now.

 First,  noticed the way Merkel has been sucking up to Putin by her objection to NATO expansion and over Georgia. This is because 43 percent of Germany?s total natural gas consumption coming from Russia. Russia has used many excuses to cutoff or raise the price of that product in the past to gain political leverage and it can do so again.   Germany?s economy like almost the rest of the world is in a down turn and can hardly afford and energy crisis right now so it has to yield to Russian pressure




Germany still has an industrial/manufacturing export based economy. While it does turn out electronics, nobody talks about buying German made software or computers. They are competing with the Asian tigers while at the same time they have an increasingly aging population demanding more social services and shrinking population/tax base to finance it. Exports accounting for 45 percent of its GDP, 11 percent for the United States, 29 percent for the United Kingdom, 30 percent for Russia, 28 percent for Italy and 27 percent for France), the German economy could be severely affected by a worldwide recession that undercuts the ability of other countries to buy its products.




 They have no central bank to coordinate their response to the economic crisis which unlike the US is not about subprime mortgages but Enron like accounting of bank loans to corporation and the banks overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans.  Add to this is Balkan/Baltic overexposure. (I know the Germans like to blame the US for their crisis but the German Leadership has a long tradition of blaming others for their problems to appease the masses) Germany has announced a 70 billion euro ($95 billion) bank capitalization plan and up to 400 billion euros ($543 billion) for interbank loan guarantees and a second bailout proposal for real estate giant Hypo to the tune of 50 billion euros ($67.9 Billion).  Put this up against a GDP of only about $2.5 Trillion.




Germany?s military while relatively well equipped is been in decline for years like most of Europe.





Where do you have this half-truth nonsense from ? Lets clarify a few points, becasue some of them are simply wrong:


a) Germany has economic problems like obviously everybody else does.

 

b) There is no big competition with the "Asian Tigers", as Germany's main exports are in industrial/productions goods (machinery, plant equipment, etc.), while most Asia countries export consumer goods.

 

c) Germany indeed does have a Central Bank (called Deutsche Bundesbank >>) and in fact they do coordinate response to the economic crisis, as EU nations have agreed upon that each nation is responsible to set up their own plans, however coordinated with the ECB and the other EU nations.

 

d) Enron like accounting in corporations ? Where does this nonsense from ? The primary problem at the current state is a re-financing problem (e.g. in the case of Hypo Real Estate - also this statement in your post is half-truth, as Hypo (the bank) is part of the UniCredit group and something totally different - the problem obviously was that they re-financed long-term debts with short term loans and due to the financial crisis, where no longer able to reniew these instruments as you might know that the market is amost "dead").

 

e) "Overvaluing corporate assets used to secure those loans" is again without
 
Quote    Reply

JFKY    LeCorsair   12/11/2008 10:40:20 AM
Is there an independent democratic government in Kosovo?  I don't think so....is there one in Afghanistan and Iraq...why yes, yes there is....and how long did it take to get Kosovo to this point, why it took what almost a decade...and Afghanistan and Iraq, why two years at the most, after the entry of foreign troops?  Well at least Afghanistan and Iraq were peaceful when occupied...oh wait, that's right there was and is still civil unrest and war in both, whereas Kosovo was peaceful by comparison and YET the Europeans haven't settled Kosovo's final status, and whether or no Northern Kosovo will be a part of Serbia or Kosovo and there is no Kosovar government, is there?  There is an international administration, still...
 
Yeah Kosovo is a FINE example of International Nation-Building by the EU....
 
Quote    Reply

le_corsaire       12/12/2008 4:05:14 AM


....

The Deutsche bank does not have the same power or perform all the same funticons as the US Federal reserve or the Cental banks of many other countries, in terms of monetary policy, that functions i performed more by the European Central Bank-ECB.

 

 I am sure the Asian Tigers wil be equally surprised to find out thaty are not turning out any production equipment or heavy machinery.

 

Look at the connection between  Siemens AG and Deutsche Bank (a relationship which has existed for more than 100 years.) There is an  overlapping of interests from this type of arrangement making the system less flexible in the face of major shocks like serious recessions or credit crises and also allows for creative bookkeeping practices)

Again, you are talking in cliches.
a) Deutsche Bank - as already stated above - is a private bank and has not anything to do with monetary policy.
 
What we are talking about is "Bundesbank" has and indeed, it performs exactly the same function as the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank: to control the monetary policy of the FRG. Now, since the EUR has been introduced (Maastricht contracts) all participating countries have agreed upon to jointly coordinate their actions via the ECB - and you might be suprised - the ECB has been formed according to the Bundesbank concept (because it obviously was the most successful one in the EU). Now even ECB is not acting in isolation - they have to take into account the requirements of the EU nations organized in the (EU Group). So the organizational concept here might be different to the U.S. - however it does not mean that it is inferior to the U.S. concept by any means. (And please think, that EU did not just "happen" to Germany - the FRG has decided to drive these organization forward). So saying that there is no Central Bank as most other nations have it which could counter the crisis is absolutely nonsense.
 
b) So your "Asian Tigers" are also the major competitors of the U.S. ? So everybody is competitor to everybody ? On a ducciciently high level of abstraction you can for sure say so. It is a fact that the percentage of industrial goods exported from the EU, particularly Germany, is much higher than whatever comes from Asia in this sector.
 
c) Siemens can work with any bank they like. Do you think General Motors is not working with a commercial bank or do U.S. companies need no banks ? ... so what are you trying to say ? I think your major misconception here is that "Deutsche Bank" is a private bank (remember we are not talking about Bundesbank - which is a state central bank). Companies like Siemens naturally work with private banks and it is also usual that such relationships continue for a long time.
Where is a conflict of interest - it is normal that in such a business relationship both companies are following mutual interests, what problem does this have for the system. Lets see it very clear - the financial crisis now has pretty much shown, that obviously the German ... or better say the EUR "system" seems to be at least as stable as the U.S. "system".
 
Since long time Germany has accounting standards which are enforced strictly (for a long time known as one of the strictest in the Europes). As EU countries have been working on harmonization of their practises, some of these german accounting rules have in the meantime been superseded by European directives, IFRS and other guidelines, which by no means allow for "creative accounting practise". Interestingly I do not remember an Enron case in Germany.
 
What you state here is pure speculation or misinterpretation very little evidence in reality ...


 
 
Quote    Reply

le_corsaire       12/12/2008 4:57:10 AM

Is there an independent democratic government in Kosovo?  I don't think so....is there one in Afghanistan and Iraq...why yes, yes there is....and how long did it take to get Kosovo to this point, why it took what almost a decade...and Afghanistan and Iraq, why two years at the most, after the entry of foreign troops?  Well at least Afghanistan and Iraq were peaceful when occupied...oh wait, that's right there was and is still civil unrest and war in both, whereas Kosovo was peaceful by comparison and YET the Europeans haven't settled Kosovo's final status, and whether or no Northern Kosovo will be a part of Serbia or Kosovo and there is no Kosovar government, is there?  There is an international administration, still...

 

Yeah Kosovo is a FINE example of International Nation-Building by the EU....


Sure, you can claim that Afghanistan has an independent democratic government (and don't get me wrong, these guys have all my respect for how they struggle to set the country up as a "democratic" system). However, your comment shows that you obviously have never been there ... otherwise you would know that this "democratic" government has obviously very little to say in Afghanistan. Sure, you could go somewhere, bring a bunch of people together, organize some "elections" where in many districts the tribe elders dictate who has to be elected and sell this as a success.
Yes, you can do that.
 
Afghanistan is peaceful ?? Is this what they tell you in the U.S. media ? A considerable size of Afghanistan is controlled by war lords and drug gangs. Sure they are peaceful as long as you let them do what they want to or they like your face (with beard) and you do not talk too much. Comparing Afghanistan with Kosovo os something which can only come from a person who does not know either of the two.
 
Concerning Kosovos state: EU was never authorized to do any "nation building" in Kosovo: When the Kosovo war broke out, Kosovo legally was part of the Federal republic of Yugolsavia. As Alban population in Kosovo wanted to have independence, this movement was supressed by the regular Yugoslavian authorities. The driving paramilitary UCK was deemed to be a "terrorist organization" fighting the regular Yugoslavian forces by most western countries. After Rambouillet negotiations were rejected by Serbian leaders, NATO (not EU) decided to intervene in order to stop violence (mainly from a Serb side). Obviously it is still debated whether this NATO intervention was an agression and illegal act according to international law. Yes, there is still an international governement (although most European nations have recognized Kosovo as an independent state) and the situation is still not easy, however much better compared to your GREAT nation building efforts in Afghanistan or Iraq. However, you cannot enforce these things if the population is not able or willing to make their peace with each other (abviously also the U.S. also have problems with enforcement do as you see in Iraw and Afghanistan).
 
Now, if you talk about FINE examples of EU nation building - why not looking at Slovenia or Croatia ? These countries were very early recognized by the EU countries and became independent and also economically well doing nations (Slovenia in the meantime EU member and Croatia in preparation). Also Bosian, although still under international administration, is at least stable and build up works can go on (Bosnia is not a very rich country - no oil ,etc.) .
 
One word to your "leading role in nation buildinG": Recognition of Slovenia and Croatia (although recognized by many EU countries) was strongly opposed by the U.S. - even to an extent that the peace keeping forces down there were not allowed to intervene. My unit was deployed in Croatia and later in Sarajevo (Bosnia) . Given the political setup at that time and what we saw ... I do not think that we really need lessons from the U.S. about any nation building ... really not.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
Quote    Reply

JFKY    La_Corsaire...   12/12/2008 11:46:46 AM
Don't worry I'm sure that the EU will be IMMUNE to any lessons in nation-building that might be offered...You guys have pretty much failed in it so far in the Balkans, why spoil a god track record?  That's hat I love about you Euro-French guyz...you MUST be right, it's not the US that has a swelled head, it's you guys....Kosovo is a muddle, with no self-determination and it's final status up in the air...it's far less than Afghanistan or Iraq.  You don't want to admit it, fine...but if yo can point out a domestic Prime Minister/President/Parliament in Kosovo or even Bosnia that is actually governing the country, rather than relying on the UN/EU?NATO forces for their support good luck with that...the reality is that neither has anything close to self-government, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan...
I have NEVER claimed Iraq was "peaceful" only that it was a functioning democracy....the US in the era 1861-65 was a democracy, not peaceful...and capable of self-governance, even though it was in the midst of a civil war.  So too, Iraq, and so NOT the Balkan countries of Bosnia or Kosovo...Slovenia and Croatia have made it, Slovenia probably best of all, Croatia has achieved take-off speed, but it's purge of Serbs in the Krajina region (IIRC) doesn't bode well for its human rights record.
 
And yo're right never been to Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, or Bosnia...never been to japan either, or France, doesn't mean I know less than you do, though, does it...you're committing a logical fallacy, false appeal to authority.
 
Quote    Reply

le_corsaire       12/15/2008 4:27:32 AM

Don't worry I'm sure that the EU will be IMMUNE to any lessons in nation-building that might be offered...You guys have pretty much failed in it so far in the Balkans, why spoil a god track record?  That's hat I love about you Euro-French guyz...you MUST be right, it's not the US that has a swelled head, it's you guys....Kosovo is a muddle, with no self-determination and it's final status up in the air...it's far less than Afghanistan or Iraq.  You don't want to admit it, fine...but if yo can point out a domestic Prime Minister/President/Parliament in Kosovo or even Bosnia that is actually governing the country, rather than relying on the UN/EU?NATO forces for their support good luck with that...the reality is that neither has anything close to self-government, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan...


I have NEVER claimed Iraq was "peaceful" only that it was a functioning democracy....the US in the era 1861-65 was a democracy, not peaceful...and capable of self-governance, even though it was in the midst of a civil war.  So too, Iraq, and so NOT the Balkan countries of Bosnia or Kosovo...Slovenia and Croatia have made it, Slovenia probably best of all, Croatia has achieved take-off speed, but it's purge of Serbs in the Krajina region (IIRC) doesn't bode well for its human rights record.

 

And yo're right never been to Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, or Bosnia...never been to japan either, or France, doesn't mean I know less than you do, though, does it...you're committing a logical fallacy, false appeal to authority.


I think EU does not need lessones in nation-building because EU does not generally think they are responsible or authorized to do so. You ve never been there but you know everything - because EU/French guys have a "swelled" had. Come on - thats a bit childish isn't it. Lets try to stick to the subject instead of being friendly to each other (I cannot remember that I said that the US had a swelled had, did I ?).
Slovenia is doing very well (Balkans), Croatia is doing very well, although not a EU member - however doing well. Concerning the Krajina region (I think you mean RSK, which was never an internationally accepted state) it has turned out that "purging" actions against Croates where primarily done and specifically planned by the JNA (army of the former Jugoslavia). You are right in the aspect that later in the war there were acts of war crime commited by the Croates as well (but you have read that in wikipedia for sure :-) ), after RSK laucnhed a missile attack against the capital city of Croatia. However, please also note that the responsible military leaders for that have been captured and are put to court in Den Haag. Please also note that Croatia is "repatriating" former inhabitants, supporting with state funds reconstruction work of destroyed property (although there are still problems for returning people to unwind compulsory purchase of properties - but this a more or less normal effect of and things are in process). By the way Serbia is also not doing bad as well, although they are closer to their traditional ally Russia, they are in process of seting up an association agreement with the EU. What about Bosnia - Herzegowina: the case is a bit more difficult here because the region is more less split into two nearly independent administration zones (population is not so homogenuous as it in Slovenia and Croatia). Although the state is still under international Administration (say as a mediator), Bosnia Herzegowina has indeed a very active political spectrum and is also not doing so bad - better there is an international mediator than just "proclaiming a government" which cannot effectively rule the country. Bosnia is independent and self-governed. The fact that you doubt "self-governing" capability becasue a country does not appoint a "prime minister" is ridiculous (probably in this case it would help if you traveled to that country to ge ta feel for it, rather than just taking your "knowledge" from wikipedia, etc.). So, Bosnia is independent, however under UN supervision (and hey, I though the U.S. is also involved in the UN, right ? Its pretty funny - obviously you are blaming EU because it sticks to UN resolutions ?). Republic of Albania - restored with help of the OSZE the country took a many refugees from Kosovo. While having economic problems, it is a stable state (again signed association agreements with EU). That the Balkan states decline in their economic capability from
 
Quote    Reply
1 2



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics