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Subject: How long before Iran gets the bomb?
Final Historian    10/3/2003 6:36:59 PM
Iran's nuclear program is nearing completion, in fact there is the odd chance it may have already bourne fruit. So my question is this: How long before Iran gets the bomb? I am of the opinion that it will be under 2 months, based on the recent actions of Iran, and a gut feeling. I will try and find links to back my beliefs up. So what do you think?
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Horsesoldier    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   11/26/2003 8:34:06 PM
It's possible, though Iran might decide it stands to gain in the short term by publicly behaving and making nice -- especially if they retain the capability to go nuclear later if they feel the need.
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HunterSThompson    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   12/24/2003 10:22:21 AM
I think alot of people miss this point that while countries such as Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran can build nuclear weapons, can these weapons actually be deployed. Building a bomb that can be carried on a plane is a lot easier then building a warhead for a missile. Building a small enought warhead for a plane will be hard enough. The warhead will have to be realitively lite and it is going to have to withstand the forces for rentry. The US and Russians spent alot of money and time getting this right. Personally I wouldn't worry too much about a Iranian nuke. Unless they stick the thing on a boat and park it in a harbor, I think they are years away from having a deployable Nuke. North Korea is probably alot closer, but even they are probably not ready to actually deploy warheads on their missiles.
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bsl    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?-Delivery   12/24/2003 9:39:10 PM
Re: Delivering nuclear devices A real issue, but probably less a problem in context of small-scale use than sometimes assumed. First, there just aren't many countries which have really good air defenses, even in theory. And, in practice, the most powerful country in the world wasn't ready to deal with four hijacked civilian airliners in a timely fashion. Israel is generally ready to intercept a bogey on the radar screen without warning. Most other countries are not. Second, let's remember that for the first part of the Cold War, the potential war, had it gone nuclear WOULD have involved aircraft delivered bombs. Missiles only really came in towards the end of the 1950s, and it was into the 1960s before they relegated bombers to second place. Furthermore, there are and always have been other options to deliver nuclear weapons. For large weapons, even weapons too large to fly, there are ships, trains, and trucks. Very, very few countries in the world have EVER had really tight inspections at their border. Now, it's possible to pick up radioactives. America has a fairly robust program to do this in place right now. We can guess that Israel does. Does Iran? Arabia? Some European countries probably do, but how long will they maintain those programs at a high rate?
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bsl    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   12/24/2003 9:40:07 PM
Pakistan and Iran, cooperating on an Iranian bomb. Which Iran is as likely to use on Sunni targets as it is on Israeli targets. Finally, a war we can sit back and enjoy....
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delete    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   2/29/2004 1:45:35 AM
I think the most likely scenario for Iran getting the bomb is during a secular revolution, or Khatami allowing moderates to stand at the next election. They will stand up and say "look everyone, we are now secular, we are freeing up the media, our human rights are improving drastically - arent we a bunch of good boys? - oh and by the way, we now have nukes."
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sentinel28a    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   2/29/2004 3:21:07 AM
And at that point, we might just say, "Kewl. Best of luck to you and glad to have a sane Iran again." Or, "Kewl. Dismantle them or no more foreign aid next time an earthquake levels one of your cities."
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delete    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   3/2/2004 12:12:03 AM
(first I assume you are in usa, correct me if i am wrong) foreign aid - you mean just from usa, or are you going to intercept and prevent aid coming from other countries as well? When Bam was flattened by last earthquake, no aid came from usa until reconstruction was well under way - even then it was next to nothing. Trade sanctions by usa against iran prevented people sending money for aid until afterwards.
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hybrid    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   3/2/2004 2:42:36 AM
I'm sorry, maybe I misunderstood something here. How is Iran justified in getting US aid again?
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sentinel28a    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?   3/8/2004 5:49:32 PM
Really. So all those C-130s and C-5s I saw with American colors were empty? I was being somewhat of a smart-alec. But sanctions can be pretty powerful if they're enforced.
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sentinel28a    RE:How long before Iran gets the bomb?--hybrid   3/8/2004 5:52:04 PM
Because we're nice guys and send food, medicine, and aid--even if, as Delete says, in tiny amounts and a few days late. This to a regime that calls us the Great Satan and has been actively supporting our downfall since 1979. Tell you what. Next time a tornado levels an Oklahoma town, Iran is welcome to send aid.
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