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Iran Disappoints Syria
by James Dunnigan
September 18, 2012

Iran has disappointed its long-time ally Syria. Despite sending cash, security/intelligence specialists, weapons, and other supplies, Syria feels that Iran could do more. Actually, Syria is pleading with Iran to do more, otherwise the Shia minority that has ruled Syria for decades will be no more and Iran will lose a key ally in its effort to become the leader of the Islamic war. Syria wants Iran to create a state of war against the Gulf Arab states and coerce them to stop supplying Syrian rebels with money and weapons. Iran can't do this without risking a real war and that would make it clear what a massive fraud Iranian military power is. Western intelligence agencies know, from satellite, electronic eavesdropping, and a large number of human informants what shape the Iranian armed forces are really in. While many of the Iranian troops are first rate, their equipment is largely obsolete or shoddy locally made stuff and their commanders are appointed more for their loyalty than for their military skills.

Syria also hoped Iran would order its Lebanese client Hezbollah to attack Israel again, as it had in 2006. But Hezbollah does not want another war with Israel, at least not yet. The Israelis have been preparing for another war and will not be surprised by Hezbollah preparations as they were in 2006. Hezbollah points out that if there were another war, Hezbollah could no longer provide armed men and access to supplies via southern Lebanon (which Hezbollah controls). Still, the Assad dictatorship in Syria expected more and, in fact, needs more help to survive. While the fall of the Assad government will hurt Hezbollah, the damage will not be as great as would be inflicted by another war with Israel right now.

Hezbollah had been very loud about its pledges to attack Israel if Israel attacks Iran. Such an Israeli attack would be an enormous boost for the beleaguered Iranian religious dictatorship. Most Iranians hate the corrupt clerics, and the army of thugs, and secret police enforcing that rule since the 1980s. While the "Israeli attack" is kept in the news, few believe that such an operation could do much more than slow down the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The big damage would be to the Iranian opposition and reformers. These groups would be swept aside as nationalism (always strong in Iran) mobilized popular support for the clerical dictatorship.



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