StrategyPage's Prediction Market

"Many minds make quick work of uncertainty."


Market | Past Predictions | Your Portfolio | Leader Board | Submit An Event
Instructions | Feedback | Login | Create Account

Correct at Close: 87.51%       Open Events: 105
Correct Over Lifetime: 85.07% Settled Events: 1041




CatagoryEventCurrent Prediction
China China attacks India by 2013.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2013

Details
FALSE
War on the Korean Peninsula.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Massive rioting in North Korea leades to civil disorder.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
South China Seas conflict
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
TRUE
Europe Greece defaults.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
TRUE
Greece leaves the Euro, and goes back to the drachma.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
At least 1 country leaves the Euro currency by end 2012
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
TRUE
Germany leaves the Euro.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
General Gold hits $2,000 an ounce.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
The Euro ceases to exist as a currency.
EXPIRES: 07/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Military Coup Detat Led By Dissatisfied Colonels Overthrows North Korea Regime
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
FALSE
Give peace a deadline plan succedes in ending all wars.
EXPIRES: 02/14/2014

Details
FALSE
Afghan government will pressure the US to remove its military presence from Afghan soil.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Man made global warming disaster prophets will reverse direction in the face of record cold. Afterwards, they will warn that "greenhouse gases" cause ice ages.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Regardless of who wins the 2008 elections, there will be no US ratified re-negotiation of NAFTA for that president''s term in office.
EXPIRES: 01/20/2013

Details
TRUE
Iraq Iran exerts dominance over Iraq, before end of Obama 1st term.
EXPIRES: 01/20/2013

Details
FALSE
Middle East The Prime Minister has sacked the Defense Chief in Pakistan. The military attempts a coup detat to regain control.
EXPIRES: 08/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Greece and Turkey go to war over Cyprus.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2013

Details
FALSE
Military action against Iran. The coalition will be led by the US. This will not include an ground forces, unless Iran counterattacks into one of the neighboring countries.
EXPIRES: 06/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Hizballah takes over the Lebanese government.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
Civil war in Syria.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
TRUE
Syria unleashes terror attacks, either by itself or through its proxies, against the Arabian countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.) in the Arab League that have called for the boycott.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
FALSE
At least one member of the Arab League attacks Syria militarily.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
FALSE
War between Turkey and Israel.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
FALSE
The revolution in Syria succeeds in overthrowing Assad and the ruling leadership.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
War between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
The Muslim Brotherhood takes over the Egyptian government, and marginalizes the army.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Egypt and Israel go to war. Either side may be the aggressor.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Karzai is assassinated in coop. A tacit US complicity come to light after the fact.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
FALSE
Joint force including participation of Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia carry out air strike on Iran.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Iran announces that it has detonated an underground nuclear device.
EXPIRES: 11/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Iran becomes a military dictatorship under the IRGC. No civilian rule.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2013

Details
FALSE
As a result partly of US influence, open liberal reform breaks out in Muslim nations from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
FALSE
Iraq divides violently upon sectarian lines as Shia and Sunnis become clients of Iran and Saudi Arabia respectively.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
FALSE
Somaliland will be recognized by a major power by may day, 2014
EXPIRES: 05/01/2014

Details
FALSE
US will remove its military from Afghanistan under pressure from the Afghan government.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Russia The "Arab Spring" comes to Russia, and Putin Falls.
EXPIRES: 04/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Terrorists detonate either a nuclear device or a "dirty bomb" in Russia.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Sci/Tech NASAs latest rover, Curiosity (Mars Science Laboratory - MSL), will successfully land on Mars in operational condition by the end of 2012.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
TRUE
Part or all of the United States power grid goes down due to terrorist event, computer hackers, or unusual solar activity.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2014

Details
FALSE
X-Prize victory will spawn a variety of competitors and competitions, resulting in commercial dominance of the spacelaunch field within 20 years.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2014

Details
TRUE
Sports The Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
EXPIRES: 02/07/2012

Details
NONE
Terrorism In the Balkans, there will be at least 1 Terrorist attack or lethal act of violence committed by radical Muslims, targeting Pro-U.S. Muslim communities or individuals.
EXPIRES: 11/01/2012

Details
TRUE
Radiological bomb detonated in Aspen or Vail, CO during winter holiday weekend.
EXPIRES: 04/01/2014

Details
FALSE
Animal rights or Ecological terrorists kill at least 1 civilian in the continental United States, whether as collateral damage, or as part of deliberately lethal terror attacks.
EXPIRES: 07/01/2012

Details
NONE
A weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
TRUE
Terrorists will kill more than 20,000 American civilians by April 2013.
EXPIRES: 04/01/2013

Details
FALSE
US The upcoming elections this November are suspended.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
NONE
Eric Holder is removed from office due to Fast and Furious.
EXPIRES: 09/01/2012

Details
NONE
Hillary Clinton resigns as Secretary of State in order to head the World Bank.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
Detroit files for bankruptcy.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
TRUE
The Republican partys caucus/primary system fails to produce a clear nominee, and the Republicans have a brokered convention.
EXPIRES: 09/15/2012

Details
FALSE
In an effort to shore up his re-election prospects, Obama orders US military action against Iran to take out their nuclear capabilities.
EXPIRES: 10/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Elizabeth Warren defeats Scott Brown for the Mass. Senate seat.
EXPIRES: 11/30/2012

Details
TRUE
Stephen Chu resigns or gets fired as the head of the DOE as a result of the Solyndra scandal.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
Newt Gingrich becomes the Republican nominee.
EXPIRES: 09/30/2012

Details
FALSE
Obama re-elected
EXPIRES: 11/17/2012

Details
FALSE
The Republicans increase their number of seats in the House of Representatives.
EXPIRES: 11/15/2012

Details
TRUE
Obama visits Israel before the 2012 election.
EXPIRES: 11/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Obama has now said that the SEALs made the decision to kill Bin Laden. Obama throws the SEALs under the bus, and charges are brought against them.
EXPIRES: 03/31/2012

Details
TRUE
Obama dumps Biden, and chooses someone else as his VP running mate in the 2012 election.
EXPIRES: 09/30/2012

Details
TRUE
Prior to the 2012 general election, documents will be provided proving that Pres. Obama is not a natural born citizen of the US.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
FALSE
The next liberal Democrat controlled Congress will raise the issue of giving federal workers collective bargaining rights.
EXPIRES: 01/16/2014

Details
TRUE
Mitt Romney becomes the Republican Candidate for President.
EXPIRES: 10/01/2012

Details
TRUE
major i.e. magnitude four or better earth quake of the New Madrid fault.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
TRUE
Supreme court justice Elena Kagan dies from complications of being over weight.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
TRUE
Obama gets a primary challenge.
EXPIRES: 06/30/2012

Details
FALSE
Republicans gain control of the Senate in the 2012 election.
EXPIRES: 11/20/2012

Details
TRUE
Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2012 election.
EXPIRES: 11/20/2012

Details
FALSE
US to experience Weimar style hyperinflation before the end of 2012.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
After voters register the opinion that we only need one party intent on running the country into the ground and not two, the GOP begins the process of disbanding
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
FALSE
President proposes that the government assumes the management of all pensions and of all retirement accounts.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
FALSE
Media reports that Rush Limbaugh had quietly had dinner with Obama several times at the White House during the Obama presidency.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
FALSE
Obama is easily re-elected over republican Newt Gingrich and independent Charles Crist in 3-way race.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
FALSE
Ford, citing the difficults competing with publicly subsidized competitors, declares bankruptcy amd is bought by the government.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2014

Details
FALSE
Obama and Congressional leaders announce the US will join with the EU under a common government
EXPIRES: 01/20/2013

Details
FALSE
Accusations that the BP escrow fund money has found its way into Democrat operative hands become public.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Mostly conservative Websites become blocked. Government declares cyber attack emergency. Situation remains unresolved and unclear.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Eric Holder resigns prior to the end of the 1st term of the Obama administration, due to scandal over refusal to enforce the Motor Voter law, or over the New Black Panther Partys voter intimidation.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2013

Details
FALSE
Real unemployment exceeds 35% under Obama although not reported as such by MSM.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Tea Party Sunders, costs GOP next Presidential Election.
EXPIRES: 10/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Obama decides not to run for a second term.
EXPIRES: 03/01/2012

Details
FALSE
Voters overiding concern in 2012 will be national security.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
FALSE
Class action lawsuit opens up the NFL to lesbian and transgender players.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Israel receives permission to buy the F-22 Raptor.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2014

Details
TRUE
GM will still be owned by the Federal Government at the end of the Obama Presidency
EXPIRES: 11/02/2012

Details
TRUE
Congress will mandate the presence of a working TV set in every home.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2014

Details
FALSE
National health Plan causes quality of care to severely drop in the US
EXPIRES: 12/09/2012

Details
FALSE
Obama will be the last US president elected under the constitution of 1789 (completed 1787).
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Price of gasoline stays above $5.00 per gallon for at least six months.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2013

Details
FALSE
Congress passes law mandating purchase of savings bonds through employer witholding above and beyong that for taxes.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Federal government rescues New York Times from bankruptcy.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Worst gasoline shortages since WWII with prompt calls in Congress to nationalize oil companies.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
A Monthly Average Of US Dollar Inflation Will Exceed A 16% Annualized Rate For Some Month Before Years End 2012.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Nuclear device detonated in an American population center.
EXPIRES: 01/20/2013

Details
FALSE
US Congress with the President will outlaw ownership of gold by individuals in the US
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Obama will be a one term president.
EXPIRES: 11/06/2012

Details
TRUE
President Obama sells Alaska to settle debt and to pay for ambitious social programs.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
Australia will receive US permission to procure the F-22 Raptor by 2014.
EXPIRES: 07/01/2014

Details
FALSE
World War between Northern & Southern Sudan. Ethiopia will come to the aid of Southern Sudan.
EXPIRES: 12/01/2012

Details
TRUE
Incursion into Somalia by a country not neighboring. Number of troop or duration irrelevant, as long as it involves deliberate use of conventional forces.
EXPIRES: 02/15/2012

Details
FALSE
Worldwide statist policies cause a worldwide famine which reduces overall population > 18%.
EXPIRES: 01/01/2014

Details
FALSE
India and Pakistan sign a security and cooperation agreement ending 60+ years of mutual hostility.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE
End of World fails to materialize
EXPIRES: 01/01/2013

Details
TRUE
By 2012, Moslem scholars will publish evidence that Jesus did not die on the cross.
EXPIRES: 12/31/2012

Details
FALSE