Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
United States Discussion Board
Sign In   Return to Topic Page
Subject: The Collapse of the EU?
PPR    2/16/2010 12:27:26 AM
I've long suspected the EU would break up at the first major economic downturn. With Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy all struggling with debt; the question remains: why should they remain in the EU if it will not bail them out? The EU must struggle with the question: Why should we bail them out when their bad economic decisions will just drag the EU down? So we are at an impass. The easiest way out would be for these countries to withdraw from the EU and start printing their own money--a little inflation to reduce the public debt. So do you think it will happen? What will be the consequences?
 
Quote    Reply

Email Me When A New Comment Is Made
Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9   NEXT
Nasty German Idiot       2/16/2010 12:33:15 PM
XXXttp://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100208_germanys_choice
 
 
 

By Marko Papic and Peter Zeihan

The situation in Europe... is dire.

After years of profligate spending, Greece is becoming overwhelmed. Barring some sort of large-scale bailout program, a Greek debt default at this point is highly likely. At this moment, European Centr... are probably the only thing holding back such a default. But these are a stopgap measure that can hold only until more important economies manage to find their feet. And Europe?s problems extend beyond Greece. Fundamentals are so poor... across the board that any number of eurozone states quickly could follow Greece down.
 
And so the rest of the eurozone is watching and waiting nervously while casting occasional glances in the direction of Berlin in hopes the eurozone?s leader and economy-in-chief will do something to make it all go away. To truly understand the depth of the crisis the Eu..., one must first understand Germany, the only country that can solve it.
 

Germany?s Trap

The heart of Germany?s problem is that it is insecure and indefensible given its location in the middle of the North European Plain. No natural barriers separate Germany from the neighbors to its east and west, no mountains, deserts, oceans. Germany thus lacks strategic depth. The North European Plain is the Continent?s highway for commerce and conquest. Germany?s position in the center of the plain gives it plenty of commercial opportunities but also forces it to participate vigorously in conflict as both an instigator and victim.

Germany?s exposure and vulnerability thus make it an extremely active power. It is always under the gun, and so its policies reflect a certain desperate hyperactivity. In times of peace, Germany is competing with everyone economically, while in times of war it is fighting everyone. Its only hope for survival lies in brutal efficiencies, which it achieves in industry and warfare.

Pre-1945, Germany?s national goals were simple: Use diplomacy and economic heft to prevent multifront wars, and when those wars seem unavoidable, initiate them at a time and place of Berlin?s choosing.

?Success? for Germany proved hard to come by, because challenges to Germany?s security do not ?simply? end with the conquest of both France and Poland. An overstretched Germany must then occupy countries with populations in excess of its own while searching for a way to deal with Russia on land and the United Kingdom on the sea. A secure position has always proved impossible, and no matter how efficient, Germany always has fallen ultimately.

During the early Cold War years, Germany?s neighbors tried a new approach. In part, the European Union and NATO are attempts by Germany?s neighbors to grant Germany security on the theory that if everyone in the immediate neighborhood is part of the same club, Germany won?t need a Wehrmacht.

There are catches, of course — most notably that even a demilitarized Germany still is Germany. Even after its disastrous defeats in the first half of the 20th century, Germany remains Europe?s largest state in terms of population and economic size; the frantic mindset that drove the Germans so hard before 1948 didn?t simply disappear. Instead of German energies being split between growth and defense, a demilitarized Germany could — indeed, it had to — focus all its power on economi.... The result was modern Germany — one of the richest, most technologically and industrially advanced states in human history.

Germany and Modern Europe

That gives Germany an entirely different sort of power from the kind it enjoyed via a potent Wehrmacht, and this was not a power that went unnoticed or unused.

France under Charles de Gaulle realized it could not play at the Great Power table with the United States and Soviet Union. Even without the damage from the war and occupation, France simply lacked the population, economy and geographic placement to compete. But a divided Germany offered France an opportunity. Much of the economic dynamism of France?s rival remained, but under postwar arrangements, Germany essentially saw itself stripped of any opinion on matters of foreign policy. So de Gaulle?s plan was a simple one:

 
Quote    Reply

FJV       2/16/2010 2:45:27 PM
Nothing I see in Europe that suggests any breakup is likely to happen soon.
 
 
Quote    Reply

Nasty German Idiot       2/16/2010 4:16:40 PM
Me neither.  Today Greece was put under the command of the European Commission, and a 4% additional deficit cut will be imposed on them - meaning they will have to cut back their new debt rate to around 8%.   (personally makes me shrudder to even think this could happen to Germany, but were at a 4% deficit compared to Greece´s 12% !)  
 
This will be forced most likely with a 10% payment cut for all state employees and raising taxes.  Which means the Greek economy overall will suffer and pay a heavy price for the bad politics.  This is most likely also meant as an example and indirect threat for Spain and Ireland ...
 
Quote    Reply

PlatypusMaximus       2/16/2010 4:23:55 PM
Oh No!...Did you guys vote for Bush too?
 
Quote    Reply

PPR    Glide path to doom   2/24/2010 7:49:41 PM
I'm not saying the break-up of the EU will happen all at once or immediately, I do believe the EU is on a glide-path to break-up.  The current economic crisis has clearly not bottomed out.  As austerity measures imposed from outside start to bite in cash-strapped countries like Greece, politicians will start to look at alternatives to the IMF or EU.  Simply put, Greece will have to re-assert sovereignty.  The only way out for politicians will be to print money--lots of it!  They can't do that as long as they use the Euro.
 
Quote    Reply

Jimme       2/26/2010 1:40:14 AM
Anyone still think switching from the Dollar to the Euro as the reserve standard is a good idea?
 
Quote    Reply

tigertony       2/27/2010 1:20:24 PM
 
  "You have not anchored Germany to Europe; you have anchored Europe to a newly dominant,unified Germany. In the end, my friends, you'll find it will not work".
 
                                                  Margaret  Hilda Thatcher 1995
 
 
     Now I wonder why she would say that?
 
 
 
                                                                       tigertony
 
Quote    Reply

Nasty German Idiot       2/27/2010 1:27:34 PM
Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.
 
Quote    Reply

tigertony       2/27/2010 1:43:33 PM

Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.

  "As the EU?s largest economy and main architect of the European Central Bank, Germany is where the proverbial buck stops. Germany has a choice to make."
 
  Well that all depends on what you or her call evil?
 
 
                                                                          tigertony
 
Quote    Reply

WarNerd       2/27/2010 7:51:57 PM
NGI
Maggie was against German reunification from the start, and prooven greatly wrong.  In this case, we can really say that 20 years after reunification Germany has not turned into an evil powergrabbing machine - unlike what Miss Thatcher predicted.

That is not what the quote says, but the quote seems perfectly correct about what creating the EU did.
 
The question now is does Germany sacrifice itself to try and save the EU, impossible as that seems, or are their politicians tough enough to put half the states in the EU through the equivalent of Chapter 11 bankruptcy drive home a point and force changes?
 
Quote    Reply
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9   NEXT



StrategyWorld.com© 1998 - 2012StrategyWorld.com. All rights Reserved. StrategyWorld.com, StrategyPage.com, FYEO, For Your Eyes Only and Al Nofi's CIC are all trademarks of StrategyWorld.com Privacy Policy