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Subject: The China Syndrome & the British Navy
human7    7/10/2004 10:00:29 AM
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan, the United States would most certainly react. (This whole notion of ambiguity is American PR.) The question is would the United Kingdom would the stand idly by or would they help to repel the Chinks?
 
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Lanton    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 5:25:38 AM
If the Chinese sunk a carrier and a couple of frigates, then the American public would quickly lose it's appetite for war with China. CNN footage of dead American sailors and marines floating face down in the turbulent seas of the Taiwan Strait would quickly put them off of their dinner. It would only take one or two errant ASM's to punch through the carrier fleet defenses to put a ship or two on the sea floor. But then again, we shouldn't just assume that the Americans would jump in if the Chinese attacked Taiwan. If Taiwan provoked the mainland by declaring formal independence, then i don't see why we should let Taiwan drag the rest of us into a war with China. Secondly, China's political and economial spheres of influence in Asia and the Pacific are growing, whereas the US's influence in the Asia-Pacific region is diminishing. China will go for Taiwan at a point in time of it's own choosing, when the Americans are stretched militarily elsewhere.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 5:49:54 AM
If the Chinese sunk a carrier and a couple of frigates, then the American public "would quickly lose it's appetite for war with China. CNN footage of dead American sailors and marines floating face down in the turbulent seas of the Taiwan Strait would quickly put them off of their dinner. It would only take one or two errant ASM's to punch through the carrier fleet defenses to put a ship or two on the sea floor." Quite similar to Japanese WW2 strategy. While my country might not like Guerilla warfare, I promise the sinking of a United States aircraft carrier will be the death knell of the offending country. They say we overreacted to 911 where we had no one to target our rage on. What do you think will happen if you give us a country to attack, not an idea.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 5:51:45 AM
On to Taiwan declaring Indepenence. We would join in. Reporting of the "brutal Communist attack" on the peace loving Democracy of Taiwan would begin as the first rounds fell. No President would be able to ignore that. If they did they would be faced with some serious questions of impeachment.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 5:54:32 AM
Even more to destroy your post. While our Army might become stretched out, the battle would be more Air Force and Navy anyway. Meaning we wouldn't be stretched out. I would imagine the Chinese buildup would draw 2 possible 3 carrier battlegroups. The Japanese and Australians, possibly some British ships too, would join in. China taking Taiwan will lead to open conflict, it is that simple.
 
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Lanton    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 6:33:59 AM
You're assuming that the Chinese would attack Taiwan without first having assured themselves that they'd be in a position to win any initial contact with the US Navy. Whilst administrations in the West work things out in four-year terms, Beijing works things out 10 year terms. They would only attack Taiwan if they felt they could repulse any US Naval presence in the Taiwan Strait and go on to subjigate Taiwan. The Americans have lost over 1700 service men and woman in Iraq so far, and Bush's popularity with the American public is at an all-time low. You've got the dems and some notable republicans baying for Bush's blood. The Americans aren't going to risk US service men and woman's lives to ensure Taiwan's sovereignty. The Americans wouldn't get any support from any of the regional powers because they'd all be sucking up to China. The Allies were in no position to prevent Hitler's invasion of Poland, and the US will no longer be in any political/military position to prevent a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 6:35:28 AM
LOL
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 6:36:58 AM
You obviously know nothing of my country. Sink a US Carrier and my country will begin the next world war by eliminating Communist China as a Economic and Miltary entity.
 
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Pseudonym    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 6:39:55 AM
"The Americans aren't going to risk US service men and woman's lives to ensure Taiwan's sovereignty. The Americans wouldn't get any support from any of the regional powers because they'd all be sucking up to China." With all the anti Japan Chinese rhetoric i am sure the japanese will be sucking up to china. LOL
 
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Lanton    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 10:48:23 AM
The US, Japan and South Korea see the thorny issue of North Korea differently. They may be 'allies' but the South Koreans are content to appease North Korea and Japan is the only Asia-Pacific power willing to go to the wire with North Korea over certain issues. You obviously know nothing of real politics. The primary goal of any state, according to the principles of real politics, is the survival of the state. The US simply would not risk all-out war with a prememinent global power, China, over Taiwan.
 
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displacedjim    RE:The China Syndrome & the British Navy   7/3/2005 11:39:02 AM
"You're assuming that the Chinese would attack Taiwan without first having assured themselves that they'd be in a position to win any initial contact with the US Navy. Whilst administrations in the West work things out in four-year terms, Beijing works things out 10 year terms. They would only attack Taiwan if they felt they could repulse any US Naval presence in the Taiwan Strait and go on to subjigate Taiwan." ---- You're assuming the PLA can win any initial contact with the USN. Here is how the war will NOT proceed: 1. PLA attacks and sinks a couple USN ships in the Strait. 2. PLA invades Taiwan while the American public says, "No more body dags." 3. PLA takes Taiwan while America issues formal apology for wrongfully sailing its ships into the path of PLA bombs, missiles, and torpedoes. If the PLA is just strongly threatening to invade but no actual invasion has started yet, and if America decides to send a show of force by sailing some ships into the area before or during any shooting but no invasion has started yet, and if the PLA engages those ships and sinks one or two, then there is no doubt but we would massively reinforce the area and proceed to destroy any Chinese invasion force that launches against Taiwan. Nothing pisses Americans off more than to be attacked while trying to keep the peace. Displacedjim
 
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