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Iraq Discussion Board
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Subject: Iraqi Military makes a stand
PowerPointRanger    3/28/2008 7:36:34 AM
The fighting in Basra may be the most important of the war. The reason: Iraq is taking on the militias largely on its own. After five years of fighting, the Iraqi military has begun to reach a point where its forces have begun to benefit from their training and experience. Consider this a test run of the "New" Iraqi Army. While they may not yet be up to US standards, they have certainly been tested under fire. If they can reclaim Basra from the Iranian-backed militias without major US support, it will be a demonstration that the New Iraq is here to stay.
 
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timon_phocas       3/28/2008 4:42:05 PM
I think you're right, this is a pivotal moment in Iraq. Allowing uncontrolled armed militias free reign is incompatible with successful government. If government forces win it will be a major milestone. We'll have to see how it plays out.
 
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Nasty German Idiot       3/29/2008 5:04:50 PM
Well, it doesnt seem that Iraqi forces are ready yet to fight on their own, as their fight in Basra seems to be lacking real punch.

link (CNN) -- The Iraqi military push into the southern city of Basra is not going as well as American officials had hoped, despite President Bush's high praise for the operation, several U.S. officials said Friday.

A closely held U.S. military intelligence analysis of the fighting in Basra shows that Iraqi security forces control less than a quarter of the city, according to officials in both the United States and Iraq, and Basra's police units are deeply infiltrated by members of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army.

"This is going to go on for a while," one U.S. military official said.

Iraqi forces launched their offensive in Basra this week. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was personally overseeing operations in the southern city against what government officials called "rogue" or "outlaw" militia elements, most loyal to al-Sadr.

During a joint news conference Friday with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Bush called the operation "a defining moment in the history of a free Iraq," saying the government is fighting criminals there. Video Watch more of Bush's comments »

"It was just a matter of time before the government was going to have to deal with it," he said.

The president also hailed the operation as a sign of progress, emphasizing that the decision to mount the offensive was al-Maliki's.

"It was his military planning; it was his causing the troops to go from point A to point B," Bush said. "And it's exactly what a lot of folks here in America were wondering whether or not Iraq would even be able to do it in the first place. And it's happening."

But since the beginning of the government offensive four days ago, violence also has picked up in a wide area of southern Iraq, including in Baghdad's International Zone -- also known as the Green Zone -- which has been targeted by rocket and mortar attacks.

Coalition bombers have joined in the fight, hitting targets in Basra and Baghdad.

The Basra analysis also shows that militia forces control a wide swath of cities in Iraq's southeast, including areas near the airport, where British forces are located, the officials said.

More than 100 Iraqis have been killed in the fighting, including at least 14 in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood. Video Watch more on Sadr City »

The fighting has sparked fears that a seven-month cease-fire by al-Sadr's Mehdi Army, regarded as a key factor in a dramatic drop in attacks in recent months, could collapse or that the U.S. military will have to bail out the Iraqis.

On Thursday, the Interior Ministry imposed a curfew through the weekend in Baghdad, Hilla, Kut, Diwaniya, Simawa and Basra. Video Watch more on the curfew »

Officials banned pedestrian, motorcycle and vehicular traffic through 5 a.m. Sunday (10 p.m. ET Saturday).

 
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timon_phocas    More Reports    3/29/2008 6:27:06 PM
This is a sample of the reports I read this morning:

link

 

This is a report from The Australian, the date line is March 29,2008

the headline is ?Coalition jets pound militias?

 

The article lead describes coalition air support and then follows with a summary of the struggle. It describes the widening of the fighting throughout Iraq and mentions sabotage of two oil pipelines providing 80% of Iraqi government revenue. It describes the Mehdi Army moving into neighborhoods in Baghdad and Shia policemen shucking their uniforms and moving for protection into Sunni neighborhoods where they can be protected by Sunni neighborhood patrols.

 

link

 

This is a report from BBC News, dateline  Saturday, 29 March 2008, 18:28 GMT

The headline is, ?British Army joins Basra fighting?

 

The article lead repeats the headline and describes a British Army artillery fire support mission at the request of Iraqi Army. It goes on to report British aircraft patrolling Basra skies.

 

link

 

AlJezeeraEnglish has a video describing the fighting. The dateline is 26 March 08

 

They describe the struggle as one between two Shia factions. The Mehdi Army controlled by Moqtada al-Sadr, and Iraqi Army, which they describe as being controlled by the Badr Brigades .

 

link

 

This is a report from AP, the dateline is March 29, 2008 12:58 EDT

The headline is, ?US widens bombing in Basra? 

 

The Article lead states that British officials said American aircraft dropped 2 PGM?s on a suspected militia stronghold. Iraqi police said it was occupied by civilians 

 

 link

 

This is a phone conversation from Michael Yon

Dateline is 2008 03 29 about 03:00 Iraqi time

 

It?s likely to get worse before it gets better

Murky genesis to the conflict, but it?s about power and wealth not religion

Nobody seems to doubt that the Iranians are behind the violence

American forces are fighting with Mehdi Army elements

This is not a fight to the finish, but for a better bargaining position

Iraqi forces can fight, but they need logistical and air support

Basra police are the worst Michael Yon has ever seen



 
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timon_phocas    Is it over?    3/30/2008 10:59:23 AM

There are reports that Mugtada al'Sadr has ordered a ceasefire


link

Report from Africa Asia, dateline is 30/03/2008 13:13 Baghdad

Headline is: Iraq says Sadr's order will help restore peace

The report says that Moqtada al-Sadr's ordered his fighters to withdraw from the streets on Sunday. Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said this will help restore peace. This was broadcast on state television Al-Iraqiya.

This report is corroborated by similar dispatches from Reuters and the Melbourne Herald Sun  

link

Report is from Reuters, dateline is: Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:39am EDT

Headline is: Aide to Iraq's Sadr: "No handover of arms"

The report quotes Hazem al-Araji, a Sadr aide, as stating that the Mehdi Army would not surrender arms and that the Iraqi government would stop ?random arrests? of Mehdi Army members.

 
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PowerPointRanger    al-Sadr cries "uncle"   3/30/2008 11:50:54 AM
link
 
Looks like al-Sadr was feeling the heat, because now he's trying to make nice.
 
"Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr told his followers to stop fighting and to cooperate with Iraqi security forces Sunday, as U.S. and Iraqi forces targeted his Mehdi Army in Basra and Baghdad."
 
I realize that many of the press reports are trying to spin this as: the Iraqi Army was losing so the US had to call in air strikes to rescue them.  But the Iraqi military is being trained according to US doctrine, so it isn't surprising that they would use US bombers and UK artillery.  If the US military had done the same thing, it wouldn't have been called a defeat.  That's simply how it is done.
 
Another spin: they Basra police are defecting to the bad guys.
 
We already knew the Basra police were heavily infiltrated, so this no surprise either.  This is just the rats coming out of the woodwork.  At least now we know who is whom.  In a way, this has been a kind of Darwinian purge of the Basra police.  The bad guys side with the militias & get killed.  Problem solved.
 
In truth, this is really all just a negotiation tactic.  Both sides are thumping their chests and saying "I will kick you a** if you don't do what I say."  To find out who really wins, we'll have to wait and see who gets what they want.
 
 
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Nasty German Idiot       3/31/2008 3:12:04 AM
My internet connection to my "work" server has just broken down and will need hours to fix, so some time for pictures:

Some pics from the fighting in Basra:



An Iraqi Shiite militiaman covered an area during a gun battle with government forces in a neighborhood in Basra, the southern port city. In an attempt to end violent clashes across Iraq that have killed more than 120 people, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said that cash rewards would be offered to anyone in Basra who turned in heavy weapons or artillery. The United States military entered the battle as its warplanes shelled targets in Basra late Thursday, and its aircraft engaged Mahdi Army fighters on Friday in Sadr City, Baghdad.
Photo: Essam al-Sudani/Agence France-Presse -- ***** Images



Iraqi soldiers stood guard over a Mahdi Army fighter in Diwaniya, south of Baghdad. Mahdi Army fighters were arrested and their weapons confiscated during a raid there, the police said.
Photo: Hussein al-Mousawi/European Pressphoto Agency
______________________________________________________________________________________________
This doesnt look so bright:





A group of Iraqi police officers arrive at a Muqtada al-Sadr office in Sadr City to surrender their weapons in Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, March 29, 2008. Some 40 police officers in Sadr City handed over their weapons to al-Sadr's local office Saturday.







Sheik Salman al-Feraiji, right, Muqtada al-Sadr's chief representative in Sadr City, takes weapons from a group of Iraqi policemen in Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, March 29, 2008. Some 40 policemen in Sadr City handed over their weapons to al-Sadr's local office Saturday.





A group of Iraqi police officers sits inside a Muqtada al-Sadr office in Sadr City after they have surrendered their weapons in Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, March 29, 2008. Some 40 police officers in Sadr City handed over their weapons to al-Sadr's local office Saturday



A Mahdi Army fighter guards captured Iraqi policemen during fighting between Mahdi Army and government forces in Basra, Iraq, Friday, March 28, 2008. Shiite militants clashed with government forces for a fourth day in Iraq's oil-rich south and sporadic fighting broke out in Baghdad, despite a weekend curfew in the capital.





Mahdi Army fighters take up position in Sadr City, Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, March 29, 2008. Some 40 Iraqi police officers in Sadr City handed over their weapons to a Muqtada al-Sadr's local office Saturday



A burnt Iraqi tank is seen on a street in the southern city of Basra on March 28. Eight people were killed in a new air strike in the southern Iraqi port city of Basra as clashes between troops and Shiite fighters continued for the fifth straight day.



 
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Nasty German Idiot       3/31/2008 3:23:32 AM
Some more images from yesterday, it seems they supplied themselves with Iraqi Army vehicles.


Mahdi Army fighters react outside a state run al-Iraqiya TV facility in Basra, Iraq, Sunday, March 30, 2008. Mahdi Army fighters stormed a state TV facility in the southern city of Basra on Sunday, forcing Iraqi military guards surrounding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire.



Mahdi Army fighters drive away with captured Iraqi armored police vehicles outside a state run al-Iraqiya TV facility in Basra, Iraq, Sunday, March 30, 2008.





Mahdi Army fighters drive away with captured Iraqi police vehicles outside a state run al-Iraqiya TV facility in Basra, Iraq, Sunday, March 30, 2008. Mahdi Army fighters stormed a state TV facility in the southern city of Basra on Sunday, forcing Iraqi military guards surrounding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire.



Mahdi Army fighters storm a state al-Iraqiya TV facility in Basra, Iraq, Sunday, March 30, 2008. Mahdi Army fighters stormed a state TV facility in the southern city of Basra on Sunday, forcing Iraqi military guards surrounding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire





A Mahdi Army fighter shoots a burning Iraqi armored police vehicle outside a state run al-Iraqiya TV facility in Basra, Iraq, Sunday, March 30, 2008. Mahdi Army fighters stormed a state TV facility in the southern city of Basra on Sunday, forcing Iraqi military guards surrounding the building to flee and setting armored vehicles on fire





Look at the faces, i find this picture quite interesting





 
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FJV    I might not be the smartest guy, but:   3/31/2008 12:17:35 PM


Wouldn't the guy with the machinegun be basically toast when the other guy fires the bazooka?
And how are you going to hit anything with a machinegun squatting behind it like that?

I wouldn't call this taking up positions. I'ld call this posing for a pretty picture in the news.


 
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Nasty German Idiot       3/31/2008 1:17:34 PM
Yep.  This guy will also have serious problems ... I would guess he will either ram something in his body when shooting or just fall over ...





 
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FJV    Now that you mention it.   4/1/2008 1:05:47 PM


Once the guy on the left fires that machinegun, the recoil will be aimed straigh at his B%llocks.

 
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PowerPointRanger    Obviously   4/5/2008 12:55:16 PM
We're dealing with a couple of rocket-scientists.
 
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PowerPointRanger       4/7/2008 7:26:08 PM
link
 
As I suspected, the spin is turning out to be just that.  It's looking like the Iraqi government "defeat" in Basra & Sadr City has actually been a rather decisive victory.
 
Now al-Sadr is offering to disarm. 
 
link
 
If true, it would all but end the war in Iraq. (Although it could just be a ruse to get a cease fire.)
 
It seems now that al Qaeda in Iraq has beem all but decimated, the government and Coalition military can (and have) turned on these Iranian-backed militias.
 
I think it's important to remember that these militias are not the fight-to-the-death sort that we have seen in the past (like al Qaeda, who are religious fanatics, or Baathists, who had everything to lose).  This pictures shown above certainly show that they aren't the best trained military force.  Looks more like a bunch of dumb-a**es with guns.  It may be a larger organization than AQI, but it is more likely to come apart under concerted pressure.
 
As noted author/analyst Ralph Peters recently noted, you don't ask for a cease fire when you're winning.
 
And you certainly don't offer to lay down your arms.
 
Last year we started seeing a grass-roots effort at reconciliation in Iraq.  Now it's finally reached the top.  When you have the major factions talking about the end of fighting, the subject has at last been broached.  While negotiations is the Middle East historically have been byzantine and could go on for years, it is doubtful the fighting will go on for as long.  I won't yet say this the end, but it is clearly the beginning of the end.
 
 
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swhitebull    Petraeus Testimony Graph   4/8/2008 4:00:18 PM
 
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