They don't have any desire to do so , why would they?
Besides the Russians wouldn't need to invade georgia if they wanted too when pro-Russian forces control half the country already.
What can the Georgian army do? They can't even take back the rouge regions now.

Why? Well first I didn't say "INVADE". I said military action. Thats the full spectrum of options. As to why? The Russians absolutely hate the encroachment on NATO and EU personnel into former Soviet states that they consider to be in their sphere of influence and vital to Russian security. Right now, Georgia has a de facto independent region called Abkhazia that has ties to Russia. No one important recognizes their sovernty...lets jump for a minute to Kosovo.

Kosovo is currently seeking independence from Serbia with US/EU/Partial UNSC support which further underminds a militarily trivial but politically significant interest. Add to this that Poland and the Czecks are rapidly falling into the US/NATO/EU sphere of influence. If you look at a map over time, the Russians are not blind to the gains the west is making. Another on going tangent is the Ukraine. If Kosovo gains its independence, it will be a huge slap in the face to Russia. Surrounded by NATO/EU countries, its a slap the Russians are just going to have to absord. Georgia on the other hand...

 

...Is also an ally of the west but is MUCH more vulnerable to Russia due to proximity. Russia needs actions to back up their major world power assertions. Somethng more substantial than turning off the power in Europe. A Kosovo independence could be the match that lights the Georgian powder keg. Whats more, the US/EU/NATO aren't really in a position to put out the fires.

 

-DA

"If Kosovo gains its
independence, it will be a huge slap in the face to Russia. Surrounded
by NATO/EU countries, its a slap the Russians are just going to have to
absord. Georgia on the other hand..."


The EU/US may play trade-off, where Russia gets to hold on to Kosovo (and even gets intel from NATO) while the Ukraine is off limits to Russia.  Russia would be allowed to come back under Russian control to counter Iran but one day, some day, when the mullahs are gone, the US gets full access to Iran.

Nah I don't buy it. Ukraine is far too important to Russia. While they might go to war(limited/proxy/economic) over other places. They would certainly go to war(not necessarily in Ukraine) over the Ukraine. A NATO/EU friendly Ukraine would scare them to death. Look at a map of where Ukraine is in relation to Europe and Russia. Keep in mind they already tried to kill the leadership there for being pro-western and since then have subverted power there.

-DA

Putin has made much of the rebirth of the Russian military. He has gone so far as to attend exercises on submerged SSN's, flown a mission in the left seat of a Backfire, and attended almost daily military operations of just about any kind you can imagine. I have not made up my mind whether or not they are posturing for export sales or conducting a Hitler-esque run up to a real shooting war. In many ways both look the same in the early stages.

 

Ukraine, I think it has slid to far from their grasp. Close ties to NATO now, I don't see him moving overtly after Ukraine. Better to sow discord among the ethnic Russians and seek a political change? Hitler justified his early posturing against the Poles by claiming the treatment of German communities in Polish territory was treacherous. Made up of course but if you really want war you have to sell it to your populace somehow. Ukraine is not a slam dunk for Russia. I say no move there.

 

The Kosovo thing is ripe for exploitation. Isn't the US and NATO invested there too though? France and the United Kingdom would stand with diplomatically together, as would Germany. Too close to Europe I think.

 

Georgia is not part of western Europe, not particularly stable, not able to defend her interests. Available.

 

Two questions: 1. Can Russian afford a real shooting war? Although it wouldn't last long.

                        2.  What effect would siezing control of Georgia have on the other satelites that fell out of Russia's orbit

                              at the conclusion of the Cold War. Wouldn't they imediately run for cover of the west? Would we give

                              it to them? Some of this question depends upon who wins the next US election.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

      

1. Yes

 

2. Intimidation would be the effect. Unfriendly political parties in nations bordering Russia would be emboldend and make moves toward getting into positions of power. What would we do? Well Georgia would call on us for support but militarily we would have very little options IMHO. It does not matter who the next POTUS is either. Russia could limit our options by only going after the break away region which would leave the door open for a diplomatic settlement.

 

-DA

 

 

DA, you think that the Rodina will attempt to sow insurrection in these states and use that as an opportunity to rebuild their hegemony? Taking small Abkhazian bites at a time?

 

Russia is perturbed that Georgia successfully broke off back in the '90s and in doing so sparked other break-aways. Supporting Abkhazian independence helps Russia how? The Agkhazia appear to be seeking independence not to be subjugated once again by Russia.

 

The net result of these machinations is that countries cobbled together by outside parties for their own interests: such as Chequeslovakia, Yugoslavia, Georgian Republic, are bound to shatter once the artificial cultural glue evaporates. In the Chech case they separated peacefully, in the case of Yugoslavia and Georgia the old fights are having to be re fought. The UN of course has no interest in anything but maintaining its status-quo members and regrettably US & our western partners will probably allow some of this to go on.

 

I still say a strong US State Dept. and POTUS could force the Russians to be allot less ambitious.

 

Elections have meaning.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky 

As mentioned by Darth its size and geography make eventual (probably not two years) reaquisition of Ukraine the essential cornerstone of 21st century Russian imperial ambitions.   Despite mutual animosity, Ukrainians are frequently the victim of Russsian ethnic humor, "how many Ukrainians does it take to.....," there is still a strong cultural bond.  Russians, who generally have a strong sense of history, also are aware that in the distant past Kiev was their national center "Kievan Rus", which creates a certain sense of entitlement on their part.   

Let me restate my position because I don't want to be misunderstood. I do not think Russia would use overt force in or against Ukraine within the next two years UNLESS...NATO moved permanently based troops there. That would pose too great a threat from the Russian point of view. While the Russians do want a pro-Moscow Ukraine they will settle for any Ukraine that keeps NATO out. This issue doesn't have two years because the Ukraine is having elections this year next month. Now should Russia's worse case scenario occur, I don't know exactly how far the Russians would go to emphasize their displeasure. But they will DO SOMETHING we wont like. It's akin to when Cuba allowed MRBMs on their soil. We all know how serious the USA took that.

The lesser nations of Georgia and Serbia are simply targets of opportunity and more of a nuciance to Moscow although in the case of Kosovo it's independence would be a huge German led EU/NATO victory over Russia. How ever that turns out I don't see direct Russian military action in an independent Kosovo scenario due to geography and NATO. Georgia's breakaway republic on the other hand is almost begging for Russian action and is the best military target.

 

On a side note, read the mission statements of Peace Mission 2005 and 2007 and think about what I'm saying.

-DA

Ukrainian membership of the EU is a strategic goal of President Viktor Yushchenko's foreign policy and was part of his last election manifesto which led him to victory. The EU’s special strategic partnership pact with Ukraine will run out in February 2010, the treaty to replace it is likely to take steps towards the signing of a stabilization pact, which is the prerequisite for EU membership. 2017 is the date penned in by the current Ukrainian government for accession

Russia will try to stop to Ukraine and the EU. I suggested a hypothetical military conflict between Russia and the EU over Ukraine in another thread. While in reality there may or may not be military action, there will defiantly be a “battle” for the Ukraine’s future

The EU cannot allow the Ukraine to fall into Russia’s grasp. Despite what some Europeans think Ukraine must have the prospect of EU membership in front of them or they will not reform and worst they will end up back in Russia’s sphere of influence. Similar arguments can be said for Georgia. Personally I believe the only way to end the threat of an autocratic regime in Russia permanently is to dismember Russia as a nation state one piece at a time, thankful this is exactly (so far) what the EU is doing.

 

 

 

I am somewhat surprised that Belarus has not been mentioned in this thread as the focal point of a crisis.

Ukrainian membership of the EU is a strategic goal of President Viktor Yushchenko's foreign policy and was part of his last election manifesto which led him to victory. The EU’s special strategic partnership pact with Ukraine will run out in February 2010, the treaty to replace it is likely to take steps towards the signing of a stabilization pact, which is the prerequisite for EU membership. 2017 is the date penned in by the current Ukrainian government for accession

Russia will try to stop to Ukraine and the EU. I suggested a hypothetical military conflict between Russia and the EU over Ukraine in another thread. While in reality there may or may not be military action, there will defiantly be a “battle” for the Ukraine’s future

I am somewhat surprised that Belarus has not been mentioned in this thread as the focal point of a crisis.

DA, So you think if Ukraine becomes a regular NATO member that a shooting war starts the next day? Assuming Ukraine is accepted as a full member of NATO, without a pressing threat from Russia why would NATO move forces in? Would the presence of advisers and NATO representatives be enough to start a war? NATO whips Russia in a stand up fight. The real question is whether NATO has the brass to accept Ukraine and drive the frontier to the Russian border. I don't think they do.

 

If Ukraine hangs tough against Russian influence in its next spate of elections, I do not see Russian gaining internal influence. I think Ukraine is lost to the Russians.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

 

I am not dismissing the military achievements of NATO in past decades with respect to Russia/USSR, nor am I dismissing the obstacle it continues to present to Russian expansion. However there is a question mark over what role NATO will continue to play against Russia, it is and always has been essential a defensive alliance where as actions relating to Georgia and Ukraine will require something a little different. I’m not suggesting the USA will be out of the loop, far from it, they will continue to be of utmost importance in driving Russia back, but whether this will be through NATO remains unclear.