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Subject: Are complex military-economic societies like USA doomed to fail surely and suddenly?
Necromancer    3/27/2009 3:49:07 PM
Anthropologist and historian Joseph Tainter wrote a fine book about it, The Collapse of Complex Societies. Collapse tends to occur quickly, as complex systems simply break down and the social construct declines to a much simpler form.
-----Like the SOviet Union and sudden end of the British empire, Spain, Rome (they took a few years to decades, but that was quick considering they were dominat for a few centuries)
 
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strat-T21C       3/27/2009 4:42:08 PM
The 'sudden end' of the British and Roman empires?
You really got a hate on for the US eh?
 
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the British Lion       3/27/2009 5:55:01 PM

Anthropologist and historian Joseph Tainter wrote a fine book about it, The Collapse of Complex Societies. Collapse tends to occur quickly, as complex systems simply break down and the social construct declines to a much simpler form.
-----Like the SOviet Union and sudden end of the British empire, Spain, Rome (they took a few years to decades, but that was quick considering they were dominat for a few centuries)

You realise that makes no sense. The Roman Empire, in one form or another (Republic, Byzantium, etc...) lasted for almost 2000 years and the British Empire simply ran out of money. Spain suffered mainly military setbacks and the Soviet Union was communist and thus doomed to fail.
 
You seem to be saying that complex empire/societies fall. Well, yes they do. As do simple ones. No empire lasts for ever and no one stays on top forever. The U.S. will eventually be surpassed; but complexity has nothing to do with it.
 
B.L. 
 
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Necromancer    Strat   3/28/2009 4:13:57 AM

The 'sudden end' of the British and Roman empires?

You really got a hate on for the US eh?



I hate nobody- the question isrelevant as US stands as the sole superpower when other "complex" societies have suddenly failed e.g. Soviets, British Empire, various Chinese dynasties, Indian Maharajas, Moguls, etc etc whereas simple military economic structures like Afghanistan Mujahadeen has survived them all--simply put isn't the cockroach still around while the T-Rex extinct? Its an analytical question-
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/28/2009 7:28:13 PM
I challenge the very notion that the Roman Empire "fell."  A far more accurate term given historical context is that it evolved.  There was not a cataclysmic invasion which ended it.  Nor was there an economic meltdown.  It was a very gradual change taking place over several hundred years. 
 
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wjr321       3/28/2009 9:29:27 PM
Wicked,
 
It simply is not true that Rome "evolved". That is historical revisionism of the worst sort which, unfortunately, is common in the Marxist history departments so prevalent in many universities.
 
Rome failed because it was incompetent due to years of embedded bureaucracy eating the seed corn of its' vitality and years of internecine warfare over who would run the empire. Progressively greater taxation to support the various treasury calls (sometimes armies killed the emperor simply to appoint another and, thus get a "payday tithe" for the accession of a new emperor) killed the economy first in the west and, later in the east. The once proud Roman citizen was reduced to a proletarian slave. By the time of Justinian the citizen legion was gone -- replaced by mercenary elites and conscript proles.
 
This was not evolution but the culmination of fascist oppression by a government out of control.
 
BTW, does this pattern seem similar?
 
Best,
wjr
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       3/29/2009 12:36:33 PM
WJR,
 
The Roman empire as history books illustrate fell, but it was already converting to an empire of thought with Christianity as its driving force.  The Vatican sent European armies, under threat of excommunication of the kings, to the middle east to take back Jerusalem.  This power was enforced by banning the reading of the bible by anyone but clergy.  And even after the Protestant split, the Catholic Church is still a major political player in the world today.  The same could be said of Judaism and Islam.  There may be "holy centers" but there is no HQ and no walls to scale, they are empires of thought and emotion with no borders.
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/29/2009 2:50:47 PM
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/29/2009 3:03:44 PM
mother of GOD I hate this board.  I had a greater than 500 word response to you saying I am a revisionist evaporate.  

To sum up what I JUST FREAKING TYPED.  

1)  Before the worst of the periods of Civil-War (the ROmans never had just one at a time) the Empire was already more a strong central Government centered in Rome/Constantinople and numerous client states run by local Kings brought into the Bureaucracy.  

2)  THe military on the frontier gradually changed from deployed legions to locals trained in Roman tactics 

3)  Due to the civil wars the central gov'ts increasingly ignored their distant holdings giving the local rulers greater authority.

4)  Gradually, the above points led to total degradation in central roman authority.  The civilian authority had degraded rapidly after the Roman Governors became or were replaced by local kings.  The responsibilities of the Civilian arms of Rome were largely replaced by the Christian Church.  

All of the above happened slowly over more than a hundred years.

Rome changed from a pure, Large centrally governed Empire, to a Small Central Empire with numerous client states, to the Byzantine Empire.  Byzantine, WAS Rome, and was still ROme when it was destroyed by the Turks: they never referred to themselves as the Byzantines, but Romans.   Any time when an Empire has a greater than 1000 year declination period you cant say it "fell," that word describes something far too sudden.

 

 
 
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wjr321       3/29/2009 7:44:02 PM
Wicked,
 
You need to read some Grant or Runciman. The simplification that revisionists make are simply astonishing.
 
Throughout the fourth and  fifth century there was a form of yin/yang of central to distributed control of the empire. The state of play depended upon the strength of the central authority. Particularly in the fourth century (the era of the camp emperors) but, with the obvious exception of Palmyra, these contenders were Romans and held the concept of Rome as the universal state -- it's just that any particular insurgent would claim that they were the correct strong man for the position.
 
This uncertainty and the consequent "fix" for the uncertainty imposed by Diocletian finally and completely stripped the empire of fiscal resources.
 
Where the client kings come into the picture is in the West (in much worse shape that the east in terms of wealth in the late fourth  and early fifth century)  and this was simply due to the fact that the Romans had no resource other than land to give -- even with a fairly stable central government. Authoritarianism had finally stripped the empire of any ability to defend itself other than through the employment of barbarian hired hands.
 
Today we are converting our citizens into "sheeple". Much as Rome lost its' stakeholders so will we as long as we let the current conditions to play themselves out.
 
Best,
wjr
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/29/2009 9:40:43 PM
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/29/2009 9:42:13 PM
oh come on, twice? FFS I have a good reply, but I will type it tomorrow, whoever made this code should be pissed on and then shot.
 
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DarthAmerica       3/29/2009 9:58:45 PM
 
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Jimme       3/29/2009 11:17:09 PM
Always copy (control-c)before you submit and if its a long post write it on MS Word then past it here. I learned long time ago on this board.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       3/30/2009 12:02:31 AM
SP management must be getting a cut from some really half assed software company because after the change this board is hosed.
 
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Wicked Chinchilla       3/30/2009 8:18:19 AM

Ugh, ok, so here is what I tried to say last night.

 

I realize there were many changes in the balance of authority between centralized and decentralized authority.  Whats important to me is the general trend of weakening central authority, not the yearly, or monthly changes. 

 

At any rate, given what you are saying in your responses I think that using the word evolution to described what happened may have led you to assume some incorrect things about what I am saying.  I am a microbiologist (specifically virologist actually) and thus when I read or see gradual change my mind instantly goes to evolution.  That is because a gradual change in an organism is all evolution is.  It is not good, or bad, it is just a change.  The environment the change takes place in governs whether the creature evolved in a beneficial or harmful way.  In my view, the gradual change of Rome from a Republic, to Dictatorship, to Empire, to Feudalish society (Byzantine Empire) screams evolution, albeit one that in the end doomed the organism of Rome.  I wanted to clarify that.  I have not been saying that Rome changed on purpose to a better fit, better running "organism."  No, what I am saying is that due to changes in religion, economics, the military, and the social constructs of the time, the Empire went through a number of different appearances.  What I read in Necromancers post that forced my response is that it implied that all of Rome, its many years and storied history, not just the Imperial Ages, fell rapidly and suddenly, which frankly did not happen. 

 

Now, on to the actual post and such and off of the semantics. 

 

I must disagree with the idea that Gov't run amok is what led to the steady deconstruction of the Empire.  In my mind it was rampant non-gov't, if not sheer outright neglect.  Economic and a social collapse of sorts did occur in the core due the waste of the treasury on a succession of wanna-be Emperors fighting over control of Rome.  It was a cascade effect: as more of the treasury was spent fighting one another instead of actually running the country the Civilian Bureaucracy of Rome which was once quite powerful and influential was slowly, but steadily wore down from lack of money and a crisis of authority.  The problems of funding are obvious: with no money to pay the bureaucrats they most likely walked off the job.  The problem of authority was that as a Civilian you had no army backing you.  During the many civil wars only words backed by the sword really held any sway, after all why should the people listen to you at all if you will most likely be deposed the first time you piss off a General?  The Civilian Chain of command had just as many levels as the military chain of command, but no actual military backing.  When push came to shove the military simply superceded the Civilian gov'ts and they faded away from poor funding and no real way to enforce their authority.  Interestingly as the bureaucracy died of slowly of cancer the Catholic Church took up the responsibilities it left behind on the grass roots level.  Things like keeping track of property, helping the poor, even conflict disputes.  It is in part because of this transistion of power from gov't institution to religious institution that the Catholic Church was so powerful in the medieval period. 

 

The rampant militarization and warring in the Core during these periods doomed Roman influence on the frontiers.  This was entirely a direct result of the emptying of the treasury in the civil wars.  Soldiers stopped receiving their pay, so they either walked off the job or went to the local King, probably of the same or similar culture anyway, and got work there.  If the soldiers weren?t receiving their pay then the civilian gov'ts weren't either.  Thus, they withered and died in the exact same way as those in the core.  The end result of this transformation was a militarized society with a strong church with loyalties centered around local leaders.  It was the perfect entry point into Feudalism. 

 

I don't see an ultra-Fascist gov't in the above description. It is similar given the absolute power of each successive "Emperor" but the civil-wars were happening precisely because there was no unifying element of nationalism, a key ingredient I believe in Fascism.  The above transformations happened over the course of several hundred years eventually ending in the Byzantine Empire.  The Byzantines actually referred to themselves as Romans, not Byzantines, right up until the Turks conquered them. 

 

We are  basically in agreement, though disagree on the terms.  We both agree there was an Economic and Social Collapse (well, in the Social Institutions anyway) as a result of Over-militarization.  You call it Facsism, It seems to me the Feudalification (is that a word?) of Rome.  I simply stress that they were extremely slow processes.  This slow, but undeniable change, is why the term Evolution fits so perfectly.  Revisionist is a harsh word that I do not think represents what it is I have been saying. 

 
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