A change of heart...

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JIMF 9/2/2008 6:41:37 PM

Good question GOG. Hope all is well with you.

I don't post much anymore, and when I did it wasn't the technical stuff comparing the Rafale to the F18 etc. I remember starting a post about a counterfactual scenario where the Germans primary attack in 1940 was through Belgium as the allies anticipated. The overwhelming response was that the Germans would have suffered heavier casualties, but still would have prevailed without too much difficulty. I had thought that a stalemate was possible, but I guess the weight and caliber of contrary opinion convinced me otherwise.

Several points, my previous view was not thoroughly researched or that strongly held, and did not involve political perspectives/principles, or nationalism.

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Godofgamblers JIMF 9/2/2008 10:22:53 PM

Good question GOG. Hope all is well with you.

Several points, my previous view was not thoroughly researched or that strongly held, and did not involve political perspectives/principles, or nationalism.

All is very well, my old friend. I have changed my mind on several occasions.

For one, I'm not so sure France could take on Egypt. I'm starting to think DA had a better grasp of the tactical situation than I did at the time. And with the significant cuts in the French military, it looks like now I don't have a leg to stand on in that argument.

I really didn't have much of an opinion on the Armenian Genocide question until we started debating the issue. It helped form my opinion.

I always thought the Israelis were clearly the aggressors in the Palestinian/Arab conflicts but after reading many threads here, I have come to see the Israeli position too.

However, some threads I have not changed my mind! I still hold that Poland could have held off the Germans in 39. I still hold that Russia is the new Weimar Republic, that they were given a raw deal after the end of the cold war.... among others.

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Godofgamblers 9/2/2008 11:11:25 PM

By th4e way, JIMF, I was just reading up on the Brusilove offensive. Quite incredible. How is it that the Russians had devised a means to break the stalemate of trench warfare in 1916 and no one sat up and took notice until 1918?

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gf0012-aust 9/3/2008 4:51:03 AM

How is it that the Russians had devised a means to break the stalemate of trench warfare in 1916 and no one sat up and took notice until 1918?

assisted by the fact that the czechs collapsed due to a shortage of enthusiasm?

thats like attributing the conquering of france solely to the tactics of the blitzkrieg...

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Godofgamblers 9/3/2008 6:18:03 AM

I don't quite follow you, gf0012.... No one decided to follow up on the stormtrooper tactics of the Russians in 1916 is what I meant.

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gf0012-aust 9/3/2008 7:13:33 AM

I don't quite follow you, gf0012.... No one decided to follow up on the stormtrooper tactics of the Russians in 1916 is what I meant.

Interestingly enough, the ANZACS and Canadians of WW1 were referred to by German Generals as the British shock troops - but then again, changes to dealing with trench warfare by the allied (and Generals such as Plummer and Monash) were by the use of combined arms.

In 1916 the russians still tried to used violent blunt force - so I'd argue that they didn't bring anything innovative to the battlefield - irrespective of what they achieved in 1916. (as opposed to the example of Hamel or Amiens where smaller allied units achieved change through event changing battle tactics.)

In fact, the first real allied "shocktroops" are regarded as being the "free" czechs at zborov in 1917 (maybe they learnt something from their central power relatives after the debacle of 1916)

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smitty237 My take 9/3/2008 9:56:55 AM

One thing that Strategy Page has done for me is open my eyes a little bit as to the views of other military, history, and political afficionados in the world. Most Americans cannot understand why so many people in the world have such a negative opinion of us (after all, we're the good guys!), but it has been enlightening for me to hear other points of view. I don't agree with a lot of the views of the SP posters from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, but sometimes I can see where they're coming from. U.S. history is just five hundred years old (if you start from the day Columbus stepped off the boat), and for the most part our historical legacy begins with the Civil War, whereas the rest of the world is dealing with animosities that have been festering for thousands of years. Personally I have found the dialogue very beneficial.

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JIMF GOG 9/3/2008 2:37:00 PM

GOG, Because of your time spent in Poland, and obvious affection for the country and people, I have a book recommendation for you, "Spies of Warsaw" by Alan Furst. This is a novel set in Warsaw 1937 - 1938. Furst has written about 12 novels set roughly in this period and is noted for his excellent writing, knowledge of the area, and creation of the appropriate atmospherics for the time and place. What he is not, and doesn't claim to be, is a historian.

In the book he has the Poles negotiating with Renault for the purchase of R-35 Tanks, which I believe to be true. He also states that they had developed a first class fighter, but it was for export only. I don't believe this is correct. The one modern plane in the Polish inventory was the "LOS" medium bomber. Their most modern fighter was the gull winged PZL11, which by 1939 was obsolete. In the novel the Poles seem to forego borrowing money for military purchases instead optng for balanced budgets and economic development. Of course the reader has the advantage of knowing that on September 1, 1939 their world was going to be turned upside down.

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Godofgamblers JIMF and gf0012 9/4/2008 12:04:32 AM

Hehe, I will argue the subject endlessly, JIMF, since I am convinced i am right. The German army that invaded france was not the german army that invaded Poland. And if you can see the heavy losses in aircraft that the germans suffered, you will see that the Poles did a good job. I don't have to remind you either that the best pilots in the BoB were Poles; this was no fluke but because they had one of the best pilot training programs in Europe.

GF0012, i see your point. You mean to say that simply mastering stormtrooper tactics would not have been enough to win a war, and I agree. But what i meant to say was, why bother using wave attacks when you have a proven alternative?

For example, once you have guns you don't use pointy sticks any more; once you have tanks, you don't go back to cavalry and once you have a means of breaking trench warfare, why forego it in favor of antiquated tactics?

Austria Hungary was virtually knocked out of the war after that battle due to the huge number of prisoners taken. I am surprised that no one really sat up and took notice.

You're quite right about the Canucks et al, but these are not indicative of major strategy changes: simply stormtroopers used as unorthodox tactics to support the orthodox strategy, if you know what i mean.

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Godofgamblers 9/4/2008 2:33:12 AM

That's because you are open-minded, tolerant and always fair, smitty. You can disagree without being disagreeable. That's why over the years you have gained the respect of many of the people on this board.

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B1165 Yes 9/4/2008 4:16:30 AM

I will never till what it was but they were right

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kane 9/4/2008 10:58:47 AM

ahah goooood point. For me, I changed when I had questions about the topic. Even if I'm very stubborn it might effect my mind in long term. Maybe one day I could change my mind so yes it works for me. Hope it's like that for everyone.

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wjr1 9/5/2008 12:23:28 AM

GoG,

How are you? I rarely post any longer due to the press of daily life but I am glad that you are still posting here.

Certainly we all learn things on this site. Some folks are more in the know than others but all of us have something

to add.

I miss the rowdy ones, though. The ones that would start interesting threads and defend the absurd.

Best,

wjr

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Godofgamblers 9/5/2008 4:58:07 AM

GoG,

How are you? I rarely post any longer due to the press of daily life but I am glad that you are still posting here.

Certainly we all learn things on this site. Some folks are more in the know than others but all of us have something

to add.

I miss the rowdy ones, though. The ones that would start interesting threads and defend the absurd.

Best,

wjr

I don't post as often as i used to. I think you can see that a lot of the activity died down at a certain point, roughly coinciding with the time that FrenchStrategist left. I thought that was a great loss. Some people didn't agree with him, didn't like him maybe, but I have no doubt that he is a defence expert and knew his stuff. It's too bad we can't call on him to know his point of view on current French defence issues.

The vibrant ones are gone, as you point out, and just mediocre guys like me are left. I'm glad some bright lights like yourself are still here, bill, and I hope all is well with you in your travels.

Tell which boards you post on SP. I'd like to start posting on another page but haven't chosen yet.

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wjr1 9/6/2008 12:21:04 AM

Gog,

I generally counter punch when I see a good thread. But not so much lately as I

cannot seem to find a subject that interests me all that much.

Why don't we start one? How about an analysis of what is happening in Georgia

and the upshot wrt Ukraine and Poland? This is serious stuff and we are seeing

non mundane history unfolding as we watch.

Poland is something of a specialty for you and I can speak and read Russian

well enough to really screw us up so it could be fun. No religious stuff --just

good old atheist ex commies versus Captain America and his side kick Euroboy

the Ambiguous (humor, really!).

I would present a hypothesis: Putin has overplayed his hand with a weak military

and this is not a Rhineland situation as Russia has been fatally weakened by the

events of 1989 to the present. However, there is a greater likelihood of war

between Russia and NATO (really the U.S.) than during the Cold War as the

Russians (like the Arabs) believe their own propaganda.

Best,

wjr

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