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Subject: Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense
DragonReborn    2/19/2004 3:08:12 AM
Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense

Russias latest ICBM seem to be a hybrid of ballistic missile and cruise missile, allowing the new Russian missiles to manouver during trajectory and thus make interception almost impossible.

link

By Kim Murphy, Times Staff Writer


MOSCOW ? After two days of high-profile military exercises, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin said Wednesday that Russia had successfully tested a new strategic missile system, a development that analysts said could allow nuclear warheads to avoid U.S. defenses.

Putin, who is seeking reelection next month, did not identify the system, which he said would allow "deep maneuvering" of Russia's long-range missiles.







Russian and U.S. military analysts said his cryptic description could mean that Russia has developed a "maneuverable reentry vehicle" ? a technology under development for decades that could provide a rudimentary guidance system for intercontinental missiles and render them difficult or impossible to destroy.

"Not a single country in the world has such a weapons system at the moment," Putin said, adding that the new "powerful means of warfare" would be deployed with the Strategic Rocket Forces "in the near future."

The Cold War ended with the breakup of the Soviet Union, but Putin's announcement at the conclusion of Russia's biggest nuclear exercise in 20 years is a signal that Russia is prepared to commit billions of dollars to continue an arms race with the U.S.

"This illustrates that the U.S. and Russia both continue to develop ever more modern and deadly ballistic missile systems, and the Cold War continues, despite the friendly words from Putin and despite the so-called arms-reduction treaty which they agreed to last year," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Assn., an arms control advocacy group in Washington.

The Pentagon downplayed the announcement, saying that regardless of any successful test of new missile guidance technology, Russia has long had the capability to defeat the $30.2-billion antimissile defense program to be deployed in the U.S. this year, if only through the size of its ballistic missile inventory.

But former Assistant Defense Secretary Phil Coyle, now a senior advisor at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, said that if the Russians had developed a maneuverable warhead, "I think it would be very alarming to the Pentagon, because this would represent a kind of threat against which no missile defense system would be effective."

Putin's announcement followed a frustrating day during which an RSM-54 ballistic missile, launched from a submarine in the Barents Sea, suddenly veered off course 98 seconds after launch and self-destructed.

There were widespread reports a day earlier that submarine crews had tried and failed to launch two RSM-54s while Putin was aboard a nearby submarine, in a widely televised preelection demonstration of his role as commander of the armed forces.

Russian naval officials said the earlier launches were not failures, but were intended all along as simulations.

Several successful launches buttressed Putin's announcement of the new system. The military ended the exercise with the launch of a Topol RS-12M missile from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, an RS-18 missile from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, and a military satellite.

Russian officials refused to define the new system tested during the launches, except to say it was a supersonic missile capable of "deep maneuvering, both in altitude and course."

Analysts said Russia has looked at equipping its state-of-the-art Topol missile with multiple warheads, an option that would greatly reduce the weapon's vulnerability to the U.S. missile defense system, which is designed to attack one warhead at a time.

Not long after President Bush pulled out of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty in order to pursue the new defense program ? now under preliminary construction in Alaska ? Russian military leaders announced they no longer felt bound by previous agreements that prohibited missiles with multiple warheads.

But several Russian military analysts said Moscow probably had tested a long-range missile with guidance capability ? the equivalent of a space cruise missile.

"The president is talking about an intercontinental missile which is capable of aerodynamic maneuvering in space or in the atmosphere, meaning ? a hybrid between a ballistic missile and a cruise missile," said Alexei G. Arbatov, former deputy chief of the parliament's defense committee and now a security specialist at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow.

Alexander Golts, defense analyst for the journal Yezhenedelny, said Putin probably has in mind a missile that could change its trajectory once separated from its rocket.

Current ballistic missiles are fired through the upper atmosphere and follow a fixed and predictable trajectory back down. The U.S. defense system is designed to deploy a field of interceptors in Alaska and California that would fly into space to meet and destroy such a missile.

"But if they had maneuvering reentry vehicles and were able to veer around the sky as they came down, that would be especially daunting for a missile defense system," Coyle said.

Putin's announcement may have been intended to toughen Russia's image for a domestic audience, because as Coyle said, "Even without the development Putin has just announced, the Russians already know they can overwhelm our missile defense system as soon as it's built."

U.S. officials have long acknowledged that the system would not defend against Russian or Chinese technology.

"The threat is really the countries like North Korea that are developing long-range missiles and weapons of mass destruction that could be carried by the missiles. This is the primary threat that this missile system is designed to deal with," said a Pentagon official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Putin declined to characterize the testing as a return to the arms race. "I can say that the perfection of the kinds of weapons we have and the development of the new weapons systems are not aimed against the United States," he said.

But Putin noted that U.S. officials "have themselves been actively developing their weapons."

"We were told that these actions were not directed against the Russian Federation, and ? it's true that the level and character of our relations confirms what our American partners told us," Putin said.

At the same time, he said, "we reserve the right to modernize our armed forces in the interest of ensuring the security of our own country."


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Times staff writers Esther Schrader in Washington and Sergei L. Loiko in Moscow contributed to this report.
 
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NuclearRenegade    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/21/2004 12:50:16 PM
WTF??? Is anyone else sickened by the unreserved sums of money, human power, and time that goes into developing ?the perfection of the kinds of weapons? wielded by the nations of the world? While the US is feverishly working towards BMD systems in Alaska and Vandenberg (among other billion dollar defense projects) the world is sinking into ruin. As Martin Luther King, Jr. said at the Riverside Church in New York on April 4, 1967 ?A nation that continues year and year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death.?
 
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Perfection Incarnate    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/21/2004 2:34:38 PM
I'm no expert but I'm guessing our pal Vlad is just throwing up smoke. Maneouverable (sp?) reentry vehicle? Well...it's a good think our interceptor is maneouverable as well... If it's as maneouverable as it sounds, I'm thinking it'll be going a lot slower than a normal re-entry vehicle and therefore much easier to kill.. I love this "impossible" nonsense, coming from the same people that said hitting a ballistic missile with an interceptor is impossible because it's like hitting a bullet with a bullet....it has been done, and is very possible. ABM defenses aren't meant to try to stop Russia anyways...MAD works for them. Nonsense/waste of money..... I do believe it was quite hilarious that 2 of their missiles failed to launch and a third self destructed...Russians are still good for laughs...not much else.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/21/2004 5:04:32 PM
A better example of spiritual death is relinquishing personal responsibility/authority for caring for our family and neighbors to some government bureaucracy thousands of miles distant who we now allow to exercise said responsibility/authority without regard to the personal wishes of our fellow Americans who also live thousands of miles away whose property they confiscate in order to do it. Displacedjim
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/22/2004 5:37:58 AM
Could the Russians just be planning sell the blueprints and rent out scientists for such a device if it is real. The Chinese will be first in line to buy it...
 
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sentinel28a    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/23/2004 4:20:48 PM
You can have the most socially advanced nation in the world, but it's going to be overrun by the primitive, club-wielding militants if it can't defend itself. I can't remember which military historian said it, but the quote ran something along the lines that the Greeks had the most advanced, most liberal society on the planet, and were overrun by Roman farmboys turned legionnaires. I'm all in favor of social programs, having benefited from them personally--but if it means dropping our military spending to the point that the next tinpot tyrant can dictate policy, then sorry, it doesn't work. I lived under Carter's attempts at that and 444 days of humiliation that resulted. I also don't like the idea that Kim Jong Weird might be able to flatten Seattle if we don't give him what he wants. Mainly because the SOB might miss and hit me.
 
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NuclearRenegade    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/24/2004 12:32:38 PM
sentinel28a said, "I'm all in favor of social programs, having benefited from them personally--but if it means dropping our military spending to the point that the next tinpot tyrant can dictate policy, then sorry, it doesn't work." Have you seen the TrueMajority.org Oreo animation that addresses this issue? Visit this site for a brief animation that illustrates a very rational and likable approach to this issue: link
 
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sentinel28a    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/24/2004 1:30:25 PM
Thanks--my computer doesn't have a sound card, so I have no idea what Jerry the ice cream guy is saying. I did click the "learn more" thing, so it sounds like a good deal...though I have a feeling it is definitely an anti-Bush site. If you're truly for peace and justice, realize that there are a lot of people out there who are not. And all the talk in the world isn't going to stop them if they decide to take what they think is theirs, decide that committing genocide in the name of Allah/God/themselves is the way to go, or simply have a hangnail and blame the US for it. It also won't go away if Kerry is elected next fall. The one thing that stops these people is force and the willingness to use it. As a historian, I hate war--but, like John Stuart Mill, I realize that there are things worse than war.
 
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bsl    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/24/2004 11:34:07 PM
"While the US is feverishly working towards BMD systems in Alaska and Vandenberg (among other billion dollar defense projects) the world is sinking into ruin. As Martin Luther King, Jr. said at the Riverside Church in New York on April 4, 1967 ?A nation that continues year and year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death" Is it open season, yet? Let's see... trying to develop a way to defend oneself from nuclear missiles is wrong? I can't wait to hear the sophisticated ethical calculus used to support this claim. Or, perhaps, that should be "sophistry". And, of course, the quote is misapplied, since, in actual fact, the implied claim that America spends more on the military than on social spending is false.
 
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bsl    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/24/2004 11:37:53 PM
And, btw, the last think anyone should be concerned about are claims made of military prowess by Russians absent actual facts to back up the claims. At about the same time this new brag hit the papers, Putin was at sea, watching Russian naval exercises. The highlight was to be the launch of a missile by a Russian sub. The missile did manage to clear the launch tube before it went haywire and had to be detonated by range safety. While the President of Russia watched. The Russians are not complete idiots. They have some very high tech and they've developed some very high tech. But they're also famous braggarts and they have a bad problem in the last couple of generations getting things to work and keeping them working.
 
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carbuff    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/25/2004 5:40:00 PM
One has to remember that the Russians have been pretty much trying to transform their entire economic system for the last 15 years or so. Prior to that, the Russians were pretty much able to counter the USA, and still represent the 2nd most powerful military in the world (esp. when you count strategic weapons). One cannot dismiss Russian technology so easily. The AA-11 is probably still the best short range AAM in the world, the Shkvall is probably the most advanced torpedo design in the world, the space station is completely dependant on Russian launch vehicles etc..etc. Rockets do malfunction, even American ones, so don't read anything into one launch failure. Decoys alone will render missile defence useless.
 
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carbuff    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense   2/25/2004 5:43:52 PM
Well yes there are things worse then war (like Losing a war for example). But what the cookie guys is trying to say (and I would agree it is an over simplification) is that the US has the most powerful military buy about 10 orders of magnitude over its closest potential rival. It seems kinda ironic to me that the most powerful country in the world is also the most fearful. It seems to me all those billions in defence spending don't even seem to buy peace of mind.
 
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Big Bad Pariah    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense - NuclearRenegade   3/10/2004 10:56:23 PM
The new missile Russia tested was most likely a product of the Cold War. Apparently the project started back in the early 1980s to counter Reagan's 'Star Wars' project.
 
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ghettovet    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense - NuclearRenegade   3/18/2004 11:56:57 PM
Thats funny because i was under the impression that NO effective defense for incoming BALLISTIC missiles has ever been developed. There is a huge difference between hitting a few scuds and knocking down incoming MIRVs. For one thing, you have to intercept at an extremely high altitude. Also, the soviets employed overkill and decoys to counter any effective defense as well as to account for things like mechanical failure, weather, and missed targets.(as did the US) And by the way, one of the SALT treaties, i believe it was SAlT #1 restricted the use of ABM systems to only ONE city per country. The US had the Nike system around DC but quickly realized that is was not going to work and dismantled it. Moscow was ringed by the Golosh system. (which if i am correct, carried the largest single warhead ever put on top of a rocket. Several MT i think) I am not sure however, how the salt treaties were handled after the fall of the USSR, but i think they are still active. Sleep well GV
 
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Slade    RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense - NuclearRenegade   3/19/2004 12:47:36 PM
Everyone US/Russia(Sov's) agreed at the time that any treaty signed by the Sov's was still valid, it's an arguable point but is consistant with precident that says treaties survive leadership change in signitory countries. Though to be honest I wouldn't be suprised if the precident goes both ways. Bush announced several months ago (minimum) that we were withdrawing from the ABM treaty as is allowed for, there was a big stink about it in the media at the time.
 
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   RE:Russia Tests Missile That Could Evade U.S. Defense - NuclearRenegade   4/9/2004 12:21:41 AM
This is a partial truth - there was an extremely effective missile defense system deployed by the United States during the 50s and subsequently dismantled in order to comply with the ABM treaty. In essence, it involved firing a salvo of air-burst nuclear missiles into the path of incoming ICBMs. A very brute, but effective, methodology..
 
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