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Subject: evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels, maybe a Queda too
stratego    2/12/2005 2:08:08 PM
A recent article of the Jamestown Foundation is of great interest. Below is the web address and I have also quoted some paragraphs, though the whole article is well worth reading. I would have to say, however, that the Jamestown Foundation is coming at the main story sideways here. Of course, any astute observer realizes, as the Jamestown Foundation points out, that the Russians run the Chechyn terror operation. What terrorist group goes out of their way to make it special point to target schoolchildren? (I have to admit that I'm not sure of Hamma's record in this regard. They obviously are happy to kill any Jews in Israel, but I don't think schoolkids are a special focus. The Cheycyns have had a relatively small # of major, headline grabbing terror operations and they choose a school for one of the targets. It is obvious nonsense. Don't forget, the men who run Russia today used to run the KGB.) But this is beside the main point illustrated by the article, it seems to me. One implication of the article is that the Russians captured Zawahiri and "turned him." That is to say, made him into an agent of theirs, inside al Quaeda. If al Queda really was independent of Russia, and Zawhiri was functioning as a Russian agent, and it was this obvious, wouldn't al Queda kill him? I have a much more plausible explanation for the facts cited in the article. Al Queda is controlled by the Russian KGB (which, though formally replaced by the FSB (international, ala CIA) and SVB (national ala FBI) is still operational as an "informal grouping," both running Russia and running the most sensitive of their old agents.) Zawhiri was picked up, not to "turn him," but to communicate with him on an extended basis, so he could transfer his detailed understanding of the KGB world strategy, as understood at that time, to the rest of the al Queda leadership. The reason for such indirect communications is security. If Russia does run al Queda, communications must be extremely covert. In fact, the number of contacts would have to be limited to make sure the US did not find the links. But control requires some links. This method, aresting someone, is a classic method of covert communciation. http://jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=400&issue_id=2899&article_id=23472 A RUSSIAN AGENT AT THE RIGHT HAND OF BIN LADEN? By Evgenii Novikov Dr. Novikov is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. "The Arabic television channel Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape on December 19, 2003, that was said to be from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the right hand man of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In it, Zawahiri claimed that his group was chasing Americans everywhere, including in the United States. This claim helped raise the terror threat level. But where is Zawahiri, whose head now carries a price of US$25 million? Recent media reports have said that he is hiding in Iran, though Iranian authorities deny this. Yet it could be that Russian intelligence knows exactly where he is and may even have regular contact with the elusive Egyptian. There are many accounts of Ayman al-Zawahiri published in the press. These stories cover Zawahiri's childhood and his relatives, his study of medicine, his connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, his involvement in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, his close relations with Osama bin Laden, and his role in major terrorist attacks against the United States. But there are few authors who mention that Zawahiri spent half a year in close contact with representatives of Russian intelligence while in their custody. Significantly, these contacts led to a change in Zawahiri's political orientation. Long talks with Russian intelligence officers 'forced a critical change in his lethal planning. ...America, not Egypt, became the target... Freed from Russian jail in May 1997, Dr. Zawahri found refuge in Afghanistan, yoking his fortunes to Mr. bin Laden. [Zawahiri's group] Egyptian Jihad, previously devoted to the narrow purpose of toppling secular rule in Egypt, became instead the biggest component of al Qaeda and a major agent of a global war against America. Dr. Zawahri became Mr. bin Laden's closest confidant and talent scout.' [1]" "...It is notable that Taliban and al Qaeda militants in Afghanistan received regular re-supplies of Russian arms. The man responsible for these deliveries was Victor Anatolievich Bout, the son of a top KGB officer. His father's connections helped establish Bout in the arms trade, which is linked to the Russian government and particularly to its intelligence services. Bout and his family currently reside in the United Arab Emirates. [3] It is also not difficult to imagine that the Russians managed to get some information from Zawahiri about his colleagues that could have been used to blackmail him if he tried to avoid cooperation after his release. With an agreement reached between Zawahiri and the Russians, the authoritie
 
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sentinel28a    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels, maybe a Queda too   2/14/2005 4:32:53 PM
Conspiracy theory. While I wouldn't put it past Putin to "arrange" Beslan, I think it is more probable that the Chechens did this themselves. What terrorist group targets children? All of them. Hamas has seen no problem with targeting pizzerias, there were certainly children killed on the airliners on 9/11, and even Timothy McVeigh parked his rent-a-bomb next to the nursery in the Murrah building. By seizing children, the Chechens expected to get concessions--but to a fanatic, a Russian child is just going to grow up to become a Russian soldier. The Germans used the same excuse to execute partisans or those suspected of being such, children included. I think this is just plain fearmongering, and maybe even an unconscious desire to want to believe some world-spanning conspiracy is behind 9/11. No one wants to admit that some "ignorant camel-jockeys" like Osama pulled off the most successfully gruesome attack on American soil in our history. It has to be someone else more sophisticated, more like our traditional enemies--for some people, the Russians; for others, like Michael Moore, George W. Bush. Finally, since AQ seems to be having its ass handed to them since October 2001, it doesn't say much for the FSS' competence. Putin is no friend of the US, but even he wouldn't go so far as sponsoring AQ or a 9/11 like attack. The stakes are too high, and include his own hide.
 
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Bob    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels, maybe a Queda too   2/15/2005 1:54:05 AM
Scary thoughts. I think Russia has a lot more interest in dealing with the governments the elements of Al Qaeda are trying to topple rather than the terrorists trying to topple them. That's not to say there aren't a lot of connections between these terrorists and the intelligence services of a few nations -- and one of those may be groups of ex-KGB guys -- but I think the thesis of this article is a bit flawed. When it comes down to explaining why the Russians would be pulling the strings, it just isn't very convincing at all. It sounds like a conclusion I would come to after a night of heavy drinking. But still, that's not to say the nexus between the terrorists, the state sponsors, the international arms traders, and the organized crime families of all these lovely nations isn't very real and very active -- I just think the motives of the latter two (money, which is all Russia's after these days, right?) doesn't quite fly with those of the former two, who really want to take it to the U.S. Regardless, they're all very bad guys. Such a wonderful situation the inhabitants of the planet face these days, isn't it?? And Stratego, targeting schoolchildren isn't really obvious nonsense with these kinds of people. We know Palestinians walk into houses and shoot infants in cribs with assault rifles. I've tried to explain the horror of it away to myself by saying there must be something else going on, but it's not the case. Beslan was real. I was once in denial but now I've learned the truth, repented, and am awaiting the end of the world with a bit of curiosity. ;) .
 
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Billiam    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels, maybe a Queda too   2/15/2005 12:05:26 PM
Sentinel > you think Putin could have arranged Beslan? Or, you wouldn't put it past him? You've got to unshackle yourself from your bias against all things not American. That's absurd.
 
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stratego    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels..Sentinnel, Bob   2/22/2005 7:04:14 AM
Glad I found this thread. Been meaning to reply to it but did not want to recently as I was in a "low energy" state due to work stress. First, I want to thank you Sent and Bob, for taking the time to respond to my comment, while many would not bother due to the apparent "flakiness" of my stance. "Conspiracy theory. While I wouldn't put it past Putin to "arrange" Beslan, I think it is more probable that the Chechens did this themselves." This sounds hopeful to me. You seem to be saying there is a possibility that Putin set it up. Let me ask you specifically. Do the circumstances arouse supsicion in your mind. How could terrorists have broken through the cordon? Are the Spetnaz that incompetent? The only similar story I recall is Saudi Arabia (and we know how conflicted they are about terrorism.) Remember, there was widespread suspicion in Russia that Putin set up previous Chechyen incidents. You caught those references in the press, didn't you? the only reason nothing like that dribbles out now may be Putin's tighter grip on the press. "What terrorist group targets children? All of them. Hamas has seen no problem with targeting pizzerias, there were certainly children killed on the airliners on 9/11, and even Timothy McVeigh parked his rent-a-bomb next to the nursery in the Murrah building. By seizing children, the Chechens expected to get concessions--but to a fanatic, a Russian child is just going to grow up to become a Russian soldier. The Germans used the same excuse to execute partisans or those suspected of being such, children included." Here, I confess limited knowlege. Bob's point on Palestinian's pointing rifles at infants and firing counts here along with yours. I still feel that so far, my point may hold. I'd be happy to get more details on the "pizzerias", in terms of their clientell. But even so, I feel that it was probably less a clera cut symbolic attack on "children" than a scool attack. And McVeigh seems to be a nearly lone actor, so he may be somewhat exceptional. Of course, I realize that terrororists like to kill children and kill a lot of them and certainly never try to avoid it. That is not my point. My point is that the deliberate targeting of children is nonetheless a new level of sickening-ness, and it adds to my supsicions here. "I think this is just plain fearmongering, and maybe even an unconscious desire to want to believe some world-spanning conspiracy is behind 9/11. No one wants to admit that some "ignorant camel-jockeys" like Osama pulled off the most successfully gruesome attack on American soil in our history. It has to be someone else more sophisticated, more like our traditional enemies--for some people, the Russians; for others, like Michael Moore, George W. Bush." I can see why you might think those are my motives, but it comes from a different direction. An overview of my reasoning goes like this. 1) the Soviets created 20th century terrorism, for the most part, at least post-Algeria. I don't know if you agree with this or not. If you agree, this means that up to 1990-1, they held the reins. I figure, why let them go, if you are gues like Putin and his former KGB colleagues and you run the Russian gov't. What do you think Putin & friends spend all day doing, economic policy? I figure they work the stuff they were trained for and spend their working lives on. 2) For example, people assumed that Russian spying would tail off after the Cold War was over. But separate reports from Britain and the US indicate Russian spying now equals or exceeds Cold War levels. The spying is feeding their for-profit arms sales. In my opinion, it is also helping terrorists (you must admit, such information would be useful to terrorists in many cases.) 3) Arms sales are very important to Russia's economy.(Iran's Nuclear Option, AJ Venter, Casemate, 2005, p. 304) "In other words, Russia has become the largest exporter of convenional arms since 2001 (responsible for 36 percent of all global arms transfers in 2002.)" If asked, I can give you the footnote on this one. Terrorism "stirs the pot" and improves the overall market for Russian arms sales. 4) Look at Russia's relationship to Iran. p. 207, same source. "There are those who believe that the Shabab-3---the same missle that was fired more than a thousand miles in early 2004---to be no more than aninterim measureand that teheran's focus will now be concentrated on the Shabab-4 with its longer range and larger payload capacity. Unlike its predecessor, the Shabab-4 is a product of exclusively Russian ballistic missle technology and, by all accounts, it's development is expected to be completed within two to three years." I need not go into the details of Russian involvement with nuclear technology, as this tends to be well known right now. Venter develops the thesis that Russia's involvement with Iran is motivated by a desire for cash, and the money is big. But I think in this case, even
 
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sentinel28a    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels..Sentinnel, Bob   2/22/2005 6:53:02 PM
In answer to you and Billiam, Stratego, I would not put it past Putin to have arranged Beslan. As you say, he has the contacts, he has the motive. Being "shackled" by my so-called refusal to accept anything Americans have done is bad has nothing to do with it. In fact, I would challenge Billiam to unshackle himself from the idea that America, or GW Bush, can do nothing right. The reason why I don't think Putin did it is the same reason that I think the French conspiracy theory that the Pentagon was hit with a missile is absurd: it requires too many people to keep their mouths shut. In Russia, even more so; how many Russians would finger Putin in exchange for a fast ticket out of the country and cold hard cash? He's not Mr. Popularity at the moment. All it takes is one person to start talking loud enough, and Putin is in trouble. Putin may be an SOB, but he's also a smart SOB--he wouldn't risk it. Worse, the FSB (not the FSS; that's a mistake on my part) has a reputation for screwing things up nearly as bad as the CIA. As for Russia controlling al-Qaeda, I discount it for much the same reasons. Osama has no love for Russia; he spent most of his young adulthood trying to kill them. They are infidels, and that's as far as it goes with him. Osama turned down aid from the CIA to fight the Russians in the early 1980s for that very reason: he hated the capitalist, Christian Americans too. AQ is not a monolith, either: if it was, we would have completely destroyed it by now. It survives because of its ability to operate in independent cells. While it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the FSB might control one or two cells, I call no way on the ability to control all of AQ and certainly not Osama. (Controlling an AQ cell is actually not a bad idea--especially if you can use it against other AQ cells and cause a civil war to break out within the organization.) Another reason that I may have mentioned is related to the reason why I don't think Putin arranged Beslan. Let's say the CIA grabs a top-level AQ official, as we have, and he starts singing about how the FSB is supplying him or who he reports to. At the very least, Bush can now meet privately with Putin and say, "Okay, Vlad, I've got the goods on you. Step aside on Iran or become the most reported guy on Fox." At the very worst, the US slaps sanctions on Russia. Putin has nothing to gain by working with AQ and everything to lose. He's better off playing shell game politics with Iran and China to counterweight American influence in Asia and the Middle East. Not only does he have plausible deniability, he can't be caught with his hand in the cookie jar. If there was even a whisper of FSB involvement in AQ activities--especially 9/11--there are enough Cold Warriors left in Washington, and in Europe, to make things miserable for Putin. What I think Russia is becoming is the new France--someone who will sell arms to anyone, no questions asked. (In defense of France, we've been known to do the same thing--there, Billiam, I said something bad about the US. Happy?) When other nations complain that their soldiers have been killed by Russian equipment, Putin just shrugs and goes back to counting the rubles. Unfortunately, like France (or us), he's not taking a long view. A nuclear-armed Iran might be just as ready to take a pot-shot at Moscow (after all, Russia is still referred to as the "Lesser Satan") if Russia should do something Tehran doesn't like. If the EU sides with the US, Putin is going to find himself on the wrong side. Attempts to play both sides against the middle may not work--Gorbachev tried it in 1991 with GW1, and it helped cost him his job. BTW, who the heck is George Allen?
 
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stratego    RE:evidence that Russian gov't controls Chechyn rebels..Sentinnel, Bob   2/22/2005 10:14:10 PM
George Allen--US Senator from Virginia. It seems that he is, unofficially, running for president in 2008. However, I am semi-joking about supporting him, as I do not know enough about him. Excellent points as usual, Sent. You may well be correct about Putin and bin Laden. The al Queada cell idea is excellent. It all comes down to how quiet one keeps a given operation. Let me give you an example. There was an FBI guy in recent years who penetrated the Mafia in NYC. Lots of coverage, naturally. He wrote a book that I read, but I can't remember author or title. A mafia guy he got close to, Sammy, "the Bull" something, had to kill himself because of it. The Mafia gave him a gun, told him they would take care of his family, etc. Lots of prosecutions. My point is, this FBI guy was touch and not naive at all. He had been Vietnam special forces. The thing is, as he did his undercover penetration, a total of 5 guys in teh FBI knew what he was doing. 5 guys! Obviously, he was cognizant of the kind of thing you are talking about. So is Putin, and the KGB has had decades to plan this thing. I'm not saying Putin sits in a control room, looks at an electronic map, and barks commands to bin Laden over the radio. I'm sure he doesn't. It may be years between communications (such as this Egyptian guy). Even if your possible scenario is correct (KBG or FSB control one cell of al Queada) it is still an awesome situation. And the Iranian thing is unreal. I'm going to have to post back from the freerepublic.com, where I am running a parallel thread to this. I am getting ripped up pretty bad over there, though (this is my first thread there.) i hope it is OK that I referred to you there (in terms of your SP personna, of course, which is all I know.) Here is my Free Republic post. I am answering a guy who clains to be a special forces demolition guy. If you go there, know that there is a person there who thinks he is stratego! Hence, I am "strategofr" there. Here it is: "Your post is very interesting. I never heard any of that information and you sound credible. Could you expand a little about how you think it is reasonable that terrorists broke out of the cordon around Belsan? Do you believe the same thing could happen in the US, given that we had a few days or more (as I recall) to set up the perimeter and would bring our best people there? Would you characterize the Belsan operation as a major blunder, analogous to Waco? (which itself could be used as a support for your thesis---things go wrong.) I am not a person who finds a lot of conspiracies about in the world. This is my only one. (Not that that, in itself, refutes the people who think I'm 'nuts'.) However, I do see the influence of the Russian KGB in the world (how I refer to Putin and his friends) as extensive (realizing that many operations would be transferred to the FSB, but not all, I believe.) One thing in my 'favor', is that the myth of 'helpful Russia' is dissolving in view of their involvement with Iran. For example, p. 306, Iran's Nuclear Option (not a nut case book, but well-footnoted (I have 2 footnotes for this if you'd like): 'Further arguments appeared when reports surfaced in early 1998 that the Russian FSB was in fact coordinating clandestine missle technology transfers to the Iranians---allegations denied by Russian offiicals. The Russian-along with Russian supplied aircraft---to provide relaible carriers for potenital nuclear warheads. Furthermore, the mere existance of of the Shahib-3 missle program, with its relatively poor accuracy (Circel of error Probable 1-3 kms over distance) implies that it is most likely meant to carry a strictly WMD payload. Moscow has always declared that no infringements of the MCTR have been committed, but did admit the existance of "individual contacts" between Iranian and Russian entities. Through it all, the Russians refuse to be shut out of the lucrative market of missle technologies.' On the other side of the leger (providing the other motive for Russian involvement with the Iranian nuclear program) are the unbelieveable financial rewards, especially for a country as poor as Russia. p. 308, same source (footnote also avaialable): 'In defiance of U.S. pressure, Russia declared in July 2002 taht it will finish construction of the $840 million nuclear reactor in Bushehr, and that it plans to build five more reactors over the next decade (another in Bushehr and four in Ahvaz, 40 miles from Teheran), for an additional $10 billion.' (!)" Thanks again, Sent, for not simply dising me out of hand and not bothering to respond. You don't have to think the Russians are behind al Queada to realize they are, along with the Chinese, our no. 1 enemies in the world today. Their actions in Iran constitute massive indirect support for terrorism, in my opinion."
 
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