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Subject: I'm very worried about the present US administration ME policy.
Shirrush    12/6/2011 10:21:28 AM
Many Israelis have registered the recent onslaught on Israel by leading Washington policy makers, and do not like it a bit. While most Izzie citizens are blissfully indifferent to the evolving Middle East situation and apply themselves to making the best of their lives for the duration of what remains of "peacetime", some opinion makers, unsurprisingly on one side of the local political map, are beginning to pick up their pens and man the ramparts. Only today, the Jpost website has two very similar entries on the subject. One is by the Post's resident right wing passionaria, Caroline Glick, but the other is by the editorial staff. Since Obama is very likely to win a second term, and since a large plurality of US "Jews" are demonstrably indifferent or mildly hostile to Israel, I'm not really sure that this is a false alarm. I'm not seeking to be reassured or comforted. My intention is indeed to start a flame thread. Links to follow.
 
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Shirrush    Linkies   12/6/2011 10:25:26 AM
The Caroline Glick article....
 
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Shirrush    Linkies   12/6/2011 10:31:01 AM
 
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Reactive       12/6/2011 11:18:44 AM
Allow me to offer some words of comforting reassurance.
 
Obama won't get a second term unless the economy goes through a miraculous and sustained boom between now and the election, or if the Republicans elect Newt Gingrich who has enough skeletons in his closet to drown out his 30-second-spaced reminders that he was part of the Regan era, which has replaced the golden era of the 50's as the nostalgic heartland of american conservatives where god smiled upon the union and blessed it with china cups and virginity. If they go with Romney it's in the bag, despite him being a Mormon he is every bit as sharp as Obama is which means he'll dominate the debates, unless he has a secret penchant for visiting gay massage parlours or the american public actually research mormonism and wonder whether anyone truly sane could believe it.
 
Anyway I'm O/T, israel is getting terrible PR and has done since the intifada, it (Israel) hasn't done itself any favours in all honesty (WRT PR) and the current government is particularly bad at managing this deteriorating image, I'm noticing that recently even right-of-centre outlets have largely negative anti-Israeli comments, now, this doesn't matter because as we all know international opinion only matters to the extent that it affects US policy, unfortunately you have a US president who in all likelihood privately dislikes Israel nearly as much as he dislikes the British, it all depends on what happens with Iran, Israel refusing to give Obama advanced notice of a strike is an indication of how far the relationship has sunk.
 
Anyway, I'm sorry for the lack of flaming but the bottom line is that Israel has independent capabilities for this very scenario.
 
 
 
 
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YelliChink       12/6/2011 4:04:59 PM

Obama won't get a second term unless the economy goes through a miraculous and sustained boom between now and the election,



Not true. The economy can remain crappy and Obama can still be re-elected. After 8th of December we will know.
 
If Eric Holder survives, then there are 60% chance you'd be wrong.
 
If Eric Holder resigns, or is impeached or thrown under the bus by his boss, then you will be 70% right.
 
 
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Reactive       12/7/2011 1:11:53 AM
I dont see that Obama has any chance YC, what message can he campaign on? Change? He's proven far too divisive to get anything substantive done and the "its the economy, stupid" cliche applies more than ever, if the economic situation is dire people always vote for an alternative, the presidential election is a cinch as long as the republicans don't field Gingrich.
 
If you look at most marginal or even moderate dem-leading states you see the approval ratings for obama are double digits below where they need to be for him to have a chance, the first thing people look for in any president is the idea of security, economic or otherwise, obama doesn't provide it, therefore there's no "security" in sticking with him unless the economic situation changes, that's beyond anyone's control but he's a soft target for attack ads right now, a big spending "socialist" president at a time of record debt and a sustained downturn makes for an easy switch to "something else", if there's no risk in doing so why not?
 
He might throw Holder under a bus or he might not, either way I can't see him getting a second term, in the popularity stakes he's doing worse than carter.
 
 
 
 
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Reactive       12/7/2011 1:13:46 AM
And frankly, the fast and furious scandal is just about to really break into the public consciousness, the congressional panel is likely to be a watershed moment where everything unravels. 
 
Frankly the IDIOTS that allowed it to happen deserve to spend the rest of their lives rotting. 
 
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YelliChink       12/7/2011 11:43:55 AM


I dont see that Obama has any chance YC, what message can he campaign on? Change? He's proven far too divisive to get anything substantive done and the "its the economy, stupid" cliche applies more than ever, if the economic situation is dire people always vote for an alternative, the presidential election is a cinch as long as the republicans don't field Gingrich.

 

 


You are underestimating the power of race politics. 
None of the GOP candidates can win, unless scandals hit continuously from June all the way to November.
 
Very difficult when the media are providing cover. F&F should have been blown out three months ago. Impossible if Eric Holder sits as AGOTUS.
 
 
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Reactive       12/7/2011 8:10:43 PM
Problems with the candidates:
 
Mitt Romney: Mormon, Moderate.
Newt Gingrich: Old, Skeletons a-plenty.
Ron Paul: Radical, Old. 
Rick Perry: G.W.Bush clone.
Others: No coverage. 
 
The only two that have a chance of peeling off dem voters are Romney and Paul, technically speaking Paul is the most consistently conservative candidate running but he looks a bit frail and is somewhat drowned out by the others.
 
What is surprising is that the poll surges with Bachmann, Cain and now Gingrich indicate that the religious elements of the repub base are desperately looking for someone, anyone who isn't a Mormon. I do wonder whether Ron Paul might be the surprise beneficiary in the early primaries, Gingrich will be shot down in flames sooner rather than later. 
 
The role that minority demographics have to play is going to become more and more important into the 2050's but I still think the election would be Romney's to lose were he the GOP nominee, if the objective is Obama out at any cost then the cost might be having a moderate mormon as POTUS,
 
 
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smitty237    My Prediction   12/7/2011 8:57:49 PM
Based upon all reasonable, objective analysis if the Presidential election were held today Obama would lose.  If you based the potential outcome of the election merely upon his job performance he most certainly should lose.  The economy is a mess, unemployment is even higher than it was when Obama took office, and the President has managed to alienate some of our oldest allies. 
 
But there is something else to consider.
 
At this point only Obama's most dedicated and hard core supporters are still singing his praises.  Even the hard Left and the normally reliable liberal-leaning media has turned on him, but as the election gets closer that will change.  The Libs may not be very happy with Obama because he didn't deliver the Utopian socialist nirvana he promised, but in the end they know Obama will be many times more liberal than anyone the Republicans nominate.  Agreed, if the economy is still in a shambles come November of 2012 Obama will lose, but what if somehow miraculously it isn't?  Here is my prediction:  come late summer of next year the media will begin reporting that the economy is turning around.  They will have talking head interviews with leftist economists that will claim that Obama's economy policies are starting to take root and that there are "signs" that the economy is ready to come back.  In the interests of objectivity the media may point out that unemployment is still over ten percent, but then they will run a short profile of some downtrodden, long out of work single mom that just scored some kick ass job that makes lots of money.  It will be a "feel good" profile that will blunt the effect of the real unemployment numbers.  As the summer progresses we will see more and more stories about how much better the economy is doing and how Obama deserves the credit.  Critics of the President will be accused of wanting the economy to fail for political purposes.   
 
This may seem absurd, but the media is not above this sort of tactic.  In fact, I distinctly remember the media doing something similar to the opposite effect during the Reagan and both Bush Administrations.  When the economy was doing well during Republican Administrations they would "balance" the good news with a video profile of some poor sap that "fell through the cracks."  They would spend a few seconds talking about the good things happening in the economy, and then negate that with a profile of a blue collar worker that has been laid off and is struggling to make ends meet.  When unemployment hit very low levels during W's administration the media pundits claimed those numbers were artificially low because of all the people that "gave up" looking for a job. 
 
Another reason that Obama won in 2008 is because he was allowed to determine the agenda of what could be discussed during the campaign.  Certain issues would come up, but if they were unhelpful to Obama in any way he would declare them "off the table," and the media, to their discredit, would follow in lock step and refuse to cover them.  It was a maddening, if fairly open and obvious, display of blatant media bias.  I expect the media to do the same thing next year. 
 
Israel should be nervous.  Syria is on the verge of a civil war, and relations with Pakistan are miserable.  Every day that passes is only one day closer that we are to Iran possessing a nuclear bomb.  The wave of democratic sentiment that has been sweeping the Middle East made an appearance in Iran, but Obama stood by and did nothing while the mullahs and their thugs ruthlessly snuffed it out in full view of the whole world.  If Obama wins next year the Liberal gloves will truly come off.  Israel may feel like it's on its own now, but if Obama wins she truly will be alone, and the best it can hope for is to hold on long enough for a Republican to get elected in 2016.  Hopefully that happens before you see mushroom clouds over Tel Aviv and Tehran. 
 
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YelliChink       12/7/2011 10:58:47 PM


If managed right, Israel will have the strongest position ever since 1948.
 
So it's 50/50. Something to worry about, but chances are there.
 
If Syria is kept at prolonged civil war, then they can't threaten Israel. There might be even chances to cut off supply routes of Hezbollah. So the best solution is to keep Syria in bloody civil war, and not ending it ASAP.
 
Egypt will implode. The military knows that, so they are doing whatever they can to steal as much as possible before running away and leave the craphole to Muslim Brotherhood. The MB of course will blame it on Jews and Mubarak and the US, but the fanaticism and radicalism doesn't work against the high-tech, well trained military of Israel. Their American weapons are useless.
 
The Iran nuke is something very concerning. However, if managed right, they will be fighting bloody surrogate wars with the Turks and the Arabs.
 
Think about 30 Year War, Netherland and Cardinal Richeliea.
 
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