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Subject: October Surprise
smitty237    9/30/2010 5:41:44 PM
We are rapidly approaching the mid-term elections. The economy has still not turned around and the Democrats are feeling the heat. They continue to blame the poor economy on Bush, but after two years of holding the reins the blame game is starting to wear thin with the voters. The Tea Party movement has galvanized the Conservative base and has forced the Republicans to move to the right. In short, the Republicans seem poised to gain a number of seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. An "October Surprise" is some big event that takes place just before the election in November. It could be some sort of scandal or an international incident that will influence undecided voters a matter weeks or even days before they go to the polls. I would argue that the "October Surprise" in 2008 was the economy. Things had been shaky in the economy towards the end of the summer of 2008, but then the bottom finally dropped out in late September/early October. Up to that point McCain had been gaining momentum, but the economic crisis drove a spear through the heart of the McCain campaign. I firmly believe that the timing of this "crisis" was no accident, and that the media, which was all in for Obama, was complicit. So what will be the October Surprise for this election? So far the Democrats seem screwed, but I find it hard to believe that they don’t have something up their sleeves. Some have suggested an air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, but this could be a risky move for Obama because it could have the opposite effect by alienating the anti-war Liberal base. Presidential decrees declaring amnesty for illegal aliens or repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell” will pretty much deliver the elections to the Republicans, so those seem unlikely. I’m at a bit of a loss as to what the October Surprise will be this year. What do all of you think it will be?
 
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YelliChink       9/30/2010 6:06:30 PM



I?m at a bit of a loss as to what the October Surprise will be this year. What do all of you think it will be?

I think that you think too much. There will be no October Surprise this year. 2012 maybe, but not 2010. Democrats screwed themselves, no other can help them. Obama is not that a deligent man and the most sinister members of his cabinet (Emanuel, Axelrod) are either leaving or seeking other employment at the moment. All the far left Marxists in his adimin are highly incompetent idiots.
Republicans might win hair thin in the House, but don't count on them to turn the tide around. This is a Culture War, and a mere election won't change the tide on things.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Overcome by events? .....   10/1/2010 9:53:07 AM
"I'm at a bit of a loss as to what the October Surprise will be this year. What do all of you think it will be?"
 
I have been wondering the same thing for some weeks now. I agree completely that the events of September/October 2008 were engineered to produce the results that they did that November. The Obama administration has lots of tools in it's cabinet to produce a dramatic event someplace in the sphere of political influence. As Smitty points out however, this won't be a simple thing. A military move on our part would probably be seen as an political act of desperation on Obama's part and personally I'd bet he will hold that card for the 2012 election cycle. I've been watching the smear attacks against a broad number GOP/Tea Party-supported candidates in the last month but they have not generated the desired results.
 
The only thing left open at this point is an attack on the US or it's interests world wide. Obama has been quoted by Bob Woodward as recently saying the US could absorb such an attack. Even if Obama was insane enough to allow one to "slip through" the US military/law enforcement principals most definitely wouldn't. It could just be that the Democrat Party is on the ropes, overcome by events, and only is able to spasmodically punch back as they are mowed under by a motivated electorate.
 
If I were a betting man I'd say that something dramatic will hit the fan in the last 14 days before the election and in spite of it the Dems will loose 75 seats in the house and the leadership in the Senate will tilt to the GOP as well. For all of that the nation's challenge will be to keep the new Congress on task, unlike before under the leadership of both dysfunctional parties and those persons many are now calling "the ruling class".
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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eldnah       10/1/2010 11:15:20 AM
Something may in fact be happpening right now. Apparently all the drone and airstrikes in Pakistan have resulted in pissing the Pakistanis off and their closing of the MSR to NATO forces in Afghanistan. Woodward's new book Obama's Wars shows both the US civilian and military leadership highly critical of the Pakistani leadership and probably didn't win us any friends their. If supplies are cut off, Obama's incompetentence as a military leader will be highlighted and that can only help the Republicans.  
 
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Jeff_F_F       10/1/2010 6:17:41 PM
I suspect this will be a suprisingly status quo election, and that may be a big problem for Obama. There are several reasons a big win by the GOP is unlikely. I thought we had another 1994 in the works but it is probably not panning out that way. The GOP *will* gain seats but they have a number of factors working against them.
 
#1 No Newt Gengrich. No Contract With America. No vision. The contract with America united the GOP with a vision of changing many things that were very wrong with America. That motivated people. The current GOP seems to be united behind getting back in power. That doesn't motivate the American people.
 
#2 Americans are mad at Democrats, but are still mad at Republicans too. In 1994 the Democrats had been screwing the country up for 40 years. It was time for a change. The GOP just got done screwing the party up for about 8 of the 12 years they were in charge. People haven't forgotten that. Republicans haven't forgotten that. Some of them (I know my parents feel this way, and my mom was a county chairman in the GOP at one time, to put things into perspective) think the Republicans haven't been punished enough for being pork-guzzling hypocrites. They might vote as a vote against Obama, but I know they aren't contributing money and they aren't helping organize. Also nationwide, according to Rasmussen, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrast *OR* Republican is falling to new lows. >>
 
Why might this be bad for Obama? In 1994 Americans vented their frustration with the Democrat party by kicking out large numbers of Democrat congressmen, but President Clinton was re-elected 2 years later. They probably won't do that as much this year, but if there isn't a perception that the Democrats have been cut down to size that frustration will linger. That means there is more opportunity for a GOP challenger to focus that frustration on Obama in 2012.
 
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ker       10/1/2010 8:08:16 PM
Is this a private fight or can anyone join in?

The fist question about an OS is who is using it. POTUS has big advantage is exploting an OS but any second or third party can take a crack at it.

I Obama is using the OS then a high profile "hate crime" is near the top of the list.  Framing a TEA party patsy would be with in means.

Any boil over from Af-Pak would be counter productive.

Baging OBL would do Obama far less good than you might think.  


On the Dem or the GOP side the risk reward ratio of facking a helpful surprise this year is more risk than reward.

The GOP would be wise to only almost take the  Senate. The House is enough this year. Dems are raising expextaions so they can once again say, "It could be worce."  The have a fun, slap the hippy, grove going on. 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       10/2/2010 7:22:48 AM
So what will be the October Surprise for this election? So far the Democrats seem screwed, but I find it hard to believe that they don?t have something up their sleeves
 
 
December Surprise.
 
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smitty237       10/2/2010 2:06:21 PM

So what will be the October Surprise for this
election? So far the Democrats seem screwed, but I find it hard to
believe that they don?t have something up their sleeves

 December Surprise.

Please explain.

 
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warpig       10/3/2010 2:41:14 AM


So far the Democrats seem screwed, but I find it hard to

believe that they don?t have something up their sleeves



 December Surprise.


Please explain.



Lame duck session where the Demoncraps can pour the fascism on thick and then have two years to cover their tracks before facing any voter wrath for it.
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Jeff reply, It's the Tea Party / Liberty Movement ...   10/4/2010 10:39:37 AM
Jeff,
 
I'd point out that your Mother, Newt, and the class of 1994 didn't have a Tea-Party/Liberty movement behind them at that time. In 1994 there was great dissatisfaction with Clinton's attempt to Nationalize the Health care industry as well as broad tax increases. The difference is that Clinton & his Democrat Congress blinked when they saw how determined the US populace was on the Health Care issue in particular. In this case Obama/Reid/Pelosi litterally rammed the legislation through in spite of a clear disagreement among the electorate. Add to that the unemployment, housing crisis, TARP, unbelieveable tax increases, nationalizing banks, nationalizing the US auto industry, you have a whole new level of urgency working against the Democrats.
 
It is the Tea Party/Liberty movement that binds the electorate together today not the traditional party affiliations (whom clearly don't deserve loyalty based upon their performances) . I say this as a person who is very involved in the Colorado GOP. Without the various organizations that consider themselves part of the "Liberty Movement" we would be looking at a mere 1994 type reversal in leadership. If you ask for evidence I'd point to the many candidates who are running for high profile seats that aren't well recognized among their parties. People like O'Donnell (NJ), Paul (KY), Maes (CO), Paladino (NY), Miller (AK), Rubio (FL), Labrador (ID), Angle (NV), & Lee (UT), the list really goes on and on down to the local city council and school district level across the nation. It's big, really big.
 
The impression I am left with is of a war upon both parties. Maybe that's the real October Suprise?
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Dohh!...   10/4/2010 10:49:41 AM
Christine O'Donnell is running for Senate in "The first state", Delaware.
 
Sorry, Christine. http://strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emembarrassed.gif" alt="" />
 
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