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Subject: Afghan War, what will happen next
YelliChink    2/20/2010 2:57:42 PM
If you are a Taliban commander, what would you do to counter ISAF operations like the one currently going on in Helmland? Would you stand and fight NATO onslaught and expect to lose 9 out of 10 soldiers, or you sacrifice a few of your least valuable units and slip out of area of operation and setup somewhere else and return later? Greed is not a capitalist-only phenomenon. I've read another report which an Afghan farmer told the reporter how he doesn't like government to rule over him and how he wants to grow poppy flowers instead of crops. I don't know what kind of morality he practices, but it sounds very immoral to me to get rich by growing poppy flower, knowing that some other people will buy them to produce illegal drugs. However, what brings money, brings guns and power, and the war can be self-sustaining. This is not good if Obama wants win (which is not the case), and this is also not good if Obama wants to disengage. Either way, Afghanistan is lost to drug smugglers. The question is whether a heavily drugged Arab world a danger to the rest of the world like the one it is today?
 
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YelliChink       6/27/2010 3:25:37 PM
 
CIA says Afghan war harder and slower than expected
 
(Funny thing is that the title has a typo at the time of this post. That's something weird from BBC, who are supposed to hire people who actually are good at English).
===
 
YC:
 
Of course it's harder and slower than expected. The US is dealing with a society consisted of Turkish and Indo-European tribes that have been ravaged by war in the past 30 years. Most of the adult population are functioning illiterates and the whole infrastructure and social system have to be rebuild from ground up. This is a situation that the improvement cannot and will not happen for the next 10 to 15 years.
 
Unlike Iraq, change in Afghanistan won't happen overnight, and won't happen until 2025. However, the media is not talking about this, and the politicians are not talking about this. They all talk the otherway, and the end result can't be anything but cut-and-run. If they want cut-and-run, then they'd better cut and run now.
 
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CJH       6/27/2010 6:33:59 PM
I take your point. I would expect the Taliban to wait until 2011 to make a serious move on Afghanistan.
 
As long as there is a date to appear to or to actually withdraw, the war is lost.
 
As to drugs, to the extent that the derivatives of opium grown there is for western markets, we in the West are financing the Taliban or whoever else is trading it in Afghanistan.
 
 
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CJH       6/27/2010 6:41:04 PM

I still believe that Obama and the Left would rather have their hands on the money that goes to the Pentagon budget than have the national security. And therefore, I believe Obama has never been serious about the WOT.

 
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YelliChink       6/27/2010 9:15:30 PM

I still believe that Obama and the Left would rather have their hands on the money that goes to the Pentagon budget than have the national security. And therefore, I believe Obama has never been serious about the WOT.




President Obama and the Left have very different and quite twisted views regarding what are the threats to the national security. They simply believe that fundamentalist Christian Crusade survivalist militia are more dangerous than Al Qaeda while the latter can be reasoned once Israel and Jooooos are left to the wolves. The WOT officially does not exist any more. All foreign military operations are called "Oversea Contingency Operation." 
 
 
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CJH       7/3/2010 11:31:00 PM




I still believe that Obama and the Left would rather have their hands on the money that goes to the Pentagon budget than have the national security. And therefore, I believe Obama has never been serious about the WOT.









President Obama and the Left have very different and quite twisted views regarding what are the threats to the national security. They simply believe that fundamentalist Christian Crusade survivalist militia are more dangerous than Al Qaeda while the latter can be reasoned once Israel and Jooooos are left to the wolves. The WOT officially does not exist any more. All foreign military operations are called "Oversea Contingency Operation." 

 


You're right about the perception of a the internal threat by the Obama gang. The typical method they apply to hostile nations is their version of the carrot-stick approach. The stick is almost always some highly laughable admonishment. The carrot is usually some gift of the tax payers' living wages in hopes of buying the foreign miscreants off.
It would really be a twilight zone moment if Napolitano recommended midnight basketball programs to mollify "right wing extremists".
 
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CJH       7/4/2010 4:51:43 PM
OK, well, how about free range time, ammo and pizza thrown in instead of basketball.
 
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PPR    Next   7/12/2010 2:18:24 PM
First, thanks to NGI for those photos.  We really don't see that kind of daily snapshot in the mainstream media.
 
As for what's next:
 
The problem with Afghanistan will not be winning the war.  We have the everything we need for that.  The big problem will be "staying won."
 
In order for us to declare victory, we have to have an Afghan government in place that is strong enough to fend for itself.  This is a problem because Afghanistan has been in a state of constant war for decades and most of it infrastructure has been destroyed (not that it had much to begin with).  However, Afghanistan has enough documented mineral wealth to create a prosperous and stable country.  The problem is going to be building enough of an infrastructure to gain access to it, which will take a long time.  You have to build roads, airports, schools, power grids, communications, etc....  Much of this has been going on unseen (too mundane to report).  For example, Afghanistan has gone from about 300 miles of paved roads in 2001 to about 7500+ miles today.  The GDP has grown to about $ 13 billion.  The government collects about $900million in revenue and spends about triple that.  Foreign aid makes this possible.
 
What we need to see is a government that is not running huge deficits and requiring outside assistance to keep its stability.  Clearly things are moving in the right direction.  Growth has continued at a fast pace.  But how much longer will it take to achieve the goal of a self-sustaining Afghan government?  For me, a good indicator will be railroad construction.  The exploitation of mineral wealth can't take place without it.  We are starting to see some construction and groundwork on this, but it could be another decade before that mineral wealth starts fillling government coffers.  By then we should also start to see the investment in education start to pay off.  Right now, for example, 90% of Afghan soldiers can't read.  In another decade or so, Afghans who have had the full benefit of  an education from childhood will be filling the ranks.
 
For me, a realistic goal would be 2020.  I know this doesn't mesh with BO's politically generated goals.  A lot will depend on whether or not BO sticks to his own goals (his track record so far shows him to be more pragmatic than his campaign promises would suggest).
 
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FJV       7/12/2010 5:42:20 PM
You'll end up with a "supposedly pro US" presidente for life in charge of Afghanistan that will be a source of endless embarrasment.
 
Oh and he will be a bottomlesss moneypit as well.
 
 
 

 
 
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AThousandYoung       7/12/2010 6:53:32 PM
That dude on the rooftop looks like a prime target for snipers.
 
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AThousandYoung       7/12/2010 6:57:17 PM
I like that head on the wall.  It looks wise.
 
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