Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Surface Forces Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: What if the Nazis never invaded Russia.....
juan grande    8/25/2008 12:46:59 AM
If Operation Barbarossa never took place, would western Europe still be German well into the 1950s?
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5   NEXT
JFKY    Depends   8/25/2008 12:18:29 PM
If the US gets involved...certainly both FDR and Churchill wanted US intervention.  If the intervention occurs Western Europe MIGHt get liberated.  If the US Stays neutral, France will be singing Deutchesland, Deutchesland Uber Alles, for some time.
Quote    Reply

StobieWan       8/28/2008 11:21:25 AM
Assuming all other things remain the same (ie, Japan strikes Pearl Harbour, Germany declares on the US etc) then Germany's position on mainland Europe would be much stronger - right up til 1945ish when the US runs a double knockout blow by hitting both Japan and Germany with a nuclear weapon each.
There's also the entertaining possibility that the USSR would have struck against Germany at some later point in the war too - relationships between the two formerly allied countries were always matters of convenience after all,

Quote    Reply

Yimmy       8/28/2008 11:58:16 AM
Russia also had significant tensions with Japan, and so Japan mobilising to the East and Germany mobilising to the West would almost certainly provoke some sort of Russian reaction - especially given how determined Russia was to stamp out Fascism in Spain in the late 30's.
Quote    Reply

FJV       8/28/2008 12:25:48 PM
I wonder how long would it take for nazi politics to wreck the German WW2 army. I have a hunch that a lot of the most effective WW2 generals would not have been kept in their position if there wasn't a dire need for them at the time, that is at the East front. If I'm not mistaken some generals were quite annoying to Hitler.
Without the need to keep such generals Hitler might have been much faster in replacing them with the Goering type of generals, who are more desirable ideology wise.

Quote    Reply

Wicked Chinchilla       8/28/2008 12:29:12 PM
Well, as others have said, the relationship between the Soviets and Germany at the time were matters of convenience.  Had Germany not invaded there is a good possibility that in a couple years the Soviets would have when they felt the time was right. 
What is guaranteed is that Germany's position is much, much stronger.  Considering how much of their forces were concentrated in Russia that frees up an awful lot of troops.  Where else WOULD they gone?  Dont say England either, the change in bombing targets during the BOB doomed the air campaign there to failure and they didnt have the amphibious assault shipping to successfully invade. 
Greater support of Rommel in N. Africa might yield interesting results, but he was defeated due to supplies rather than troops mostly.  Greater numbers would have made his push easier though.  Would be an interesting scenario.  If the Nazi's wanted to invade somewhere else a destination would be hard to pick: Turkey would be a bitch to invade through due to rough terrain and if the allies figured out where you were going they could rush troops up to the Bosporus and plug you anyway.  N. Africa is limited by Royal Navy intervention but the greater Luftwaffe assets that could be committed due to no Barbarossa would help there. 
 Russia, while not ideal at all given the sheer size of the country, was perhaps the easiest place to go at the time...
Quote    Reply

JFKY    Nazi Generals   8/28/2008 12:35:50 PM
Rommel and Guederian were political/Nazi generals, and they seemed to do OK under the Nazi regime as well as performing well.  I might point out that the lower ranks of the Wehrmacht were very thoroughly infiltrated by, if not Nazi's then Nazi sympathizers, and the Wehrmacht performed very well.  The focus on ideology and, if you will, Political Correctness, would have been later, in the 1950's, not in the 1933-45 Wehrmacht.  Not a defense of the NASDAP, but rather to suggest that ideological correctness and politics did occur in the Wehrmacht, and that in the early stages of the war it had no bad outcomes, for German military performance-were you a Jew, a Pole, a Frenchman, a Norwegian, the Wehrmacht's successes had a deleterious effect, but the Nazi ideology did not detract from military effectiveness.
Quote    Reply

JFKY    Wicked   8/28/2008 12:45:22 PM
Had there been Drang nach osten, then Rommel might have prospered and been in a position to defeat Britain and open the USSR to a two-front advance.  Rommel lost due to poor logistics...had Rommel taken Malta, without the distraction of the Eastern Front the Germans might have actually occupied, not just bombed Malta, then Rommel gets the supplies he needs for his advance in the Summer of 1942, possibly even enough troops to take the Levant.  This severs Britain's link to the east and removes the Middle Eastern Oil Fields from Britain's control.  NOW, the USSR must face an advance by a German-Turkish force into their Caucasus region as well as an advance into the Western USSR.  Conceivably the USSR losses the Ukraine, its industry AND it's oil, a combination blow it might not recover from.
Certainly no Barbarossa changes things greatly....though Stobiewan makes a good point about the possession and use of the Atomic Bomb, by the US, might make the above fairly moot, or mayhap not.  IF Britain is forced out of the war by Rommel, THEN there is no US intervention against the Germans and no impetus to develop the fission bomb, and no reason to employ it, even if developed, as the US would be at peace with Germany.
Quote    Reply

Yimmy       8/28/2008 1:03:42 PM

Rommel and Guederian were political/Nazi generals,

Maybe wrong here, but I was under the impression that Rommel was never in the Nazi party?
Quote    Reply

JFKY    Yimmy   8/28/2008 1:25:10 PM
Neither was Guederian, AFAIK, but they both lobbied and presented themselves to Hitler, assiduously.  Rommel was Hitler's Bodyguard detachment commander in Poland, his reward for that service was the 7th Light Division command in France 1940.  Guderian toadied Hitler rather well, I have read, to support the idea of Blitzkreig and Guderian's place in leading Blitzkreig.  In short, both prosered because they made themselves highly visible to the leader of Germany....thye were both effective commanders, as well, just not well liked by their peers, because of their self-promotion efforts.
Quote    Reply

Wicked Chinchilla    JFKY   8/28/2008 1:29:23 PM
Yes, I know that Rommel was defeated due to logistics.  One of the primary reasons for this was the consant headache of the RN and the RAF pounding his supply ships.  He lost because the allies were able to slow him down enough and force enough maneuver he used more fuel than was shipped in.  I dont think that scenario would be any different but it could be.  Without Barbarossa two questions dictate whether Rommel would be successful:
1)  Would the greater number of available troops been enough to force his way through more rapidly and "outrace" the allied blockade?  Rommel almost got Egypt without additional forces.  Put more intial forces there and he has a greater chance of blowing past the Allies without the numerous withdrawals and extreme maneuvers which bled him dry. 
2)  Would the greater available Luftwaffe assets been able to pressure the Allied presence in the Western Med. enough to cause their blockade to slacken?  If more supplies could get through Rommel has more time to get to Egypt.  Once he gets to the Eastern Med the Germans have Crete, and the Allied suppy lines either go all the way round the continent or through the heavy Luftwaffe presence of the Eastern Med.  Egypt is key: he gets to the Nile/Sinai, he wins. 
The allies barely hung onto Egypt as it was, especially with Monty at the helm.... *shudders*  If either of those two answers are yes then the allies have a big, big problem.
As far as taking Malta is concerned I dont think it was feasible.  Maybe they could have been starved out via blockade but the Germans lacked amphibious capability.  Invasion by sea was out.  Alternatively, after Crete Hitler forbade any large airborne operations.  Malta was going to remain British for the duration IMO.  Those are the only two ways you can take an island.  Their presence there could be neutralized though in a way akin to what the U.S. did to Rabaul in the Pacific.  Of course, this demands naval supremacy which Germany/Italy never had...
As an aside: the Atomic Bombs were not knockout blows.  If Japan hadnt been on the ropes initially it would not have led to surrender.  Hell, even with two Nuclear Weapons, and the Soviet Invasion blowing through Manchuria the hardliners were still arguing to fight back.  They are powerful weapons, but it would simply have marked an escalation.  Would we have used them if Japan could have retaliated?  If we had nuked Germany then there V2's would have begun raining down poison gas on London.  Using nuclear weapons against an opponent that is not cornered with no practical response is an escalation, nothing more.  The one and only way this could have managed to force Germany to the bargaining table is if the Fat Man or Little Boy tagged Hitler.  THAT might result in something.  Just nuking a city...that just angers/scares your oponent and forces them to launch a WMD in kind. 
Quote    Reply
1 2 3 4 5   NEXT