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Subject: Rumor--Kim Jong iL under arrest
Herc the Merc    1/28/2007 8:20:42 PM
Perhaps the Chinese pushed for his detainment becoz he was going to conduct an N-test in Feb--just my thoughts no confirmation.
 
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HYPOCENTER       1/29/2007 12:04:50 AM
Who told you this "rumor"? Cite an article or something.... otherwise this is total nonsense.
 
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Herc the Merc    Jiji   1/29/2007 12:41:18 PM
>>
 
Kim Jong-Il May Be Under House Arrest in North Korea, Jiji Says

By Taku Kato

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is absent from Pyongyang and may be under house arrest or have suffered a decline in his health, Jiji Press reported, citing South Korean officials it didn't identify.

U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies are trying to confirm reports of his absence, the Japanese news agency said.

The reports say Kim may be at a villa in the east of the country, following what Jiji said was a power struggle among the leadership of the reclusive nation.

An unidentified South Korean intelligence official cited by Jiji casts doubt on the reports, saying the South's government isn't aware of unusual activity.

(Jiji Press, Internet edition, 01/26.)

 
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HYPOCENTER       1/30/2007 12:24:42 AM
I assume the lack of follow-up news articles on this means it's just a rumor. Intriguing none-the-less though.
 
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Herc the Merc       1/30/2007 11:24:40 PM

I assume the lack of follow-up news articles on this means it's just a rumor. Intriguing none-the-less though.


Another theory is Kim goes to his bunker in fear of probable US nuke attack on Iran and NK. Wouldn't be a big surprise at all.
 
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HYPOCENTER    More to this than we know....   2/12/2007 2:31:55 PM
Apparently, NK just agreed to initial steps on disarming itself.

Herc, are these two stories coincidence or connected? I have a theory on this.

 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       2/12/2007 9:00:09 PM
NK was demanding tons of fuel oil and rebuffing Japan's demands to turn over remaining kidnapped Japanese. 

Using Kim as a bargaining chip, the generals and senior party members could probably leverage light sentences or exile to Africa in return for opening the door.

It would be really nice if Herc's post was true.

And Bad China would lose a major bargaining chip!

 
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HYPOCENTER    This is very strange.   2/13/2007 12:38:38 PM
Apparently, the tentative deal is this: to provide.... NK with roughly 400 million in fuel oil and aid, in return for the North's starting to disable its nuclear facilities and allowing nuclear inspector back into the country. Many are saying this is weird because we could have cut this deal a very long time ago.

To quote John Bolton on the issue:

John Bolton:"

This is the same thing that the State Department was prepared to do six years ago. If we going to cut this deal now, it’s amazing we didn’t cut it back then.

 
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Herc the Merc    Hypo lets hear ur theory--u may have a story..   2/13/2007 12:49:11 PM

Apparently, NK just agreed to initial steps on disarming itself.

Herc, are these two stories coincidence or connected? I have a theory on this.


My view is that Kim Gone ill was planning a second test, the Chinese got mad and had their army proxies in NK put Kim under arrest, and he gave in to sign this deal. Second theory (unlikely) is US gave a real hard ultimatum to Iran and NK, co-operate or get nuked, yes get nuked-note how concilliatory Ahmednijabad of Iran is.

 
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HYPOCENTER    of what signifigance?   2/13/2007 1:00:07 PM
So... assuming John Bolton is correct ...why are we cutting a deal now? Why cut the exact same deal NK was willing to take 6 years ago, now?

I believe the answer involves a greater strategic focus -- involving specifically China and Iran.

 
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