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Subject: North Korea Pulls out of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Final Historian    1/9/2003 11:34:27 PM
The link to the FNC article is this :,2933,75152,00.html Things do not appear to be going well on the Korean peninsula. The North Korean announcement that they weren't going to build any nukes "at this stage" indicates they already have some, or or just lying. I find it very unlikely that NK is going to respond to diplomatic pressure from anyone at this point. They have convinced themselves that the only way to protect themselves from the US is to acquire Nuclear Weapons, and threaten to use them if the US does anything. They might even try and blackmail the US into pulling out of the region or else. But even more alarming is the fact that North Korea may sell or give nuclear weapons to terrorist groups like Al-Queda. The timing is pretty bad right now, because with so much attention on Iraq, the US will be hard pressed to help South Korea out if the North invades. I can honestly say that the most unhappy person in the world now is probably either the South Korean President or President Bush. And Colin Powell and the Japanese Prime Minister are not far behind. This is not looking good.
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Phoenix Rising    Nuclear Brinkmanship   1/11/2003 4:03:33 AM
Another link to an analysis of the situation:,,3-539174,00.html We've seen this kind of thing before. Myself, considering that if they try anything stupid with Japan, China, or Russia, they're dead, and South Korea recently voted against us in an election that was very close to a referendum on their relationship with us, I say call their bluff. They think they're calling ours, but we can play that game, too. They don't resort to brinkmanship unless they know they're on their last legs. Nukes aren't going to get them out of this if we don't let them. If you want to teach a baby not to cry, you need to make sure that crying never gets him/her what he/she wants. If Kim Jong Il feels the need to act like he's still in diapers, then we ought to treat him that way. --Phoenix Rising
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Final Historian    RE:Nuclear Brinkmanship   1/11/2003 11:50:51 AM
Good Point. Besides, even if NK does have a couple of nukes, we don't know how big they are. If they are too big they won't fit on a Scud, and thus have to use one of their medium range missiles, something that is larger, and they have less of. So it might be possible to shoot it down. But of course, even Kim and company must realize that shooting at nuke at SK is a death sentence, no one (serious) will object to the US turning the North forces into glass.
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NewGuy    RE:Nuclear Brinkmanship   1/11/2003 11:58:10 AM
I think NK realises that what small thread of support they receive from certain elements inside the South would instantly evaporate along with whatever target they hit with a nuke. Not to mention that China, Russia, and other (nominally) friendly states would not be able to shield/buffer them in that instant from massive reprisals (both economic and military) from the South, the US, and even the UN. I can only see a greater than minimal chance of the DPRK launching a nuke at the South in the case of a revolt or massive civil unrest that is to the point of overthrowing the current government. NewGuy
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American Kafir    RE:Nuclear Brinkmanship   1/11/2003 12:45:15 PM
We know for a fact that nuclear weapons will kill Japanese. We don't know if they will kill Koreans. We should test this hypothesis.
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American Kafir    RE:PRK Pulls out of Nuke Non-Proliferation Treaty~~~So What's NEW?   1/11/2003 1:23:42 PM
Short of North Korea performing long-range ballistic missile tests, I still don't see any reason for the United States to make a move on them, short of informing the Chinese, Russians, Japanese, and South Koreans that our ballistic missile submarines off the peninsula can and will vaporize North Korea in total whenever we feel like it, and if they wish to prevent that from happening, they ought to get North Korea out of the pissing-off-America business.
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American Kafir    RE:PRK Pulls out of Nuke Non-Proliferation Treaty~~~So What's NEW?   1/12/2003 7:32:43 AM
I've said it long and repeatedly and time after time, and it bear repeating now: Colin Powell has no business carrying golf clubs for someone at the State Department, much less being Secretary of State. This is the man who, in an effort to derail the first Gulf War from happening, jacked up the numbers to make it appear as if attacking Saddam Hussein to get him out of Kuwait would be futile. He did this as a Joint Chief of Staff. He's too politically motivated to be in the position that he is, especially when his politics are from the Chamberlain school of self-defeatism. Imagine if Colin Powell would have had his way in 1991. The Iraqis would still be in Kuwait, and the North Koreans would be working hard to catch up to the amount of WMD the Iraqis would still have. Harry Belafonte would make a better Sec of State, on the merits of his total honesty about how stupid he is.
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Topolino    How about Rummy?   1/13/2003 10:55:07 AM
What about making the current SEC DEF the next Secretary of State? Rumsfiled would be a pisser as Sec. State.
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Topolino    RE:How about Rummy? Yes but...   1/13/2003 2:00:43 PM
Gee, Ump, first you said " How 'bout Schwarzkopf? Or a 'tough as nails' Admiral? This made for TV, warm and fuzzy humanistic psychology model, for mediating differences with tyrants and thugs, has gotta go too!" and now we need a cross between the brilliant and fearless Richelieu and Monroe, the energetic visionary? That's a very tall order. Hmm... Condi Rice? I think you're right about Rummy being too straightforward. My favorite Rumsfeld moment was during one of his press conferences while the Afgan campaign was in full swing. Some reporter asked him if it was true that we were using cluster munitions against the taliban, and if so, why were we doing that. Rumsfeld looked at him as if he were a retarded 5 year old, and patiently explained that in active battle, killing the enemy (who are not inviting you to have tea and little sandwiches with the crusts cut off, but rather trying as hard as they can to kill you) is actually a GOOD thing, and that CBU's are very good at killing enemy troops on open ground, so the AF was right to do this and that our ground forces actually appreciated it when they did. I don't know why it was so funny - maybe it was because the question was so idiotic, or that the reporter actually thought the use of CBU's was something to be ashamed of and that Rumsfeld would deny it. It was very funny and classic Rumsfeld, but you're right, it wouldn't be effective diplomacy.
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American Kafir    RE:How about Rummy? Yes but...but   1/13/2003 8:48:39 PM
What about Alan Keyes as Secretary of State? We'd get a dramatic increase in intellectual power, and get to keep the color scheme. Or how about Newt Gingrich?
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Final Historian    RE:How about Rummy? Yes but...but   1/14/2003 1:25:41 AM
Gingrich has WAY too much baggage to bring to the team, and doesn't have nearly the foreign policy expertise. Keyes, is a different story. His problems is that he is not well known, nationally, and he is FAR too conservative to act as a major player. He would do better as an assistant Sec State, rather than the lead guy. I don't really know who should fill the spot if Powell leaves, but I don't think he is that bad. I believe that most of the talk about Powell and Bush disagreeing is simply rumor and or deliberate leaks. This could be for several reasons. One, if there is a major gaffe in the administration, then Colin Powell comes off clean, and can actually have a political future. Two, it makes Powell appear more legit to those who disagree with the Administrations line. Three, it keeps the opposition off focus from the real issues. BTW, Powell did not make up the inflated casualty figures in Gulf War I. Those figures were made up by subordinates who passed them on to him. He didn't have any reason to doubt them, or didn't say so publicaly, and thus passed them on.
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