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Subject: N Korean Nuke: Why so small?
PowerPointRanger    10/9/2006 2:13:51 PM
The first reports of the N Korean nuclear test suggest a yield of 550 tons. Not kilotons. Tons. This would make it by far the smallest 1st detonation by any country. Other first tests ranged from 9-60kt. So what happened? I see 2 possibilities: 1) A fizzle--the nuclear equivilent of a dud. It results in a lot of radiation, but not much bang. 2) A hoax--perhaps N Korea has set off a very large conventional explosion to simulate a nuke in order to intimidate its neighbors. Given how closed-off N Korea is, it would be hard to know exactly what happened. I've always been skeptical of N Korea's nuke claims. This test has not been convincing.
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/9/2006 2:47:09 PM
may have been a QC problem, which is why NK is hinting at another test.
 
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whoami       10/9/2006 3:28:52 PM

may have been a QC problem, which is why NK is hinting at another test.
Yeah. Do it again. What will be the consequence? None what so ever.

 
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Herc the Merc    small is beautiful   10/9/2006 3:33:41 PM
Small bombs can also be used against aircraft carrier groups or where enemy is close to friends and where less contamination is desired or where it can be launched from any plane or as an artillery shell to Seoul.
 
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whoami       10/9/2006 3:44:22 PM

Small bombs can also be used against aircraft carrier groups or where enemy is close to friends and where less contamination is desired or where it can be launched from any plane or as an artillery shell to Seoul.

A nuclear bomb with quality problem does NOT make it a tactical nuclear bomb!
 
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reefdiver       10/9/2006 6:53:11 PM




Small bombs can also be used against aircraft carrier groups or where enemy is close to friends and where less contamination is desired or where it can be launched from any plane or as an artillery shell to Seoul.



A nuclear bomb with quality problem does NOT make it a tactical nuclear bomb!

I doubt that NK has made a smaller size & yield tactical nuke that might fit in missiles,  but if they did in fact do so, it might be far more upsetting to SK than a larger size / larger yield nuke.  I personally go for the semi-dud reasoning.
 
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American Kafir       10/9/2006 7:30:18 PM
We have a piece of paper signed by North Korea over champagne and a smile and a handshake from Madelaine Albright herself that says that North Korea won't even work on a bomb with the nuclear capabilities that Bill Clinton was giving them.
 
Why worry?
 
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wrathofachilles       10/9/2006 7:52:25 PM
Or that they only have a very small amount of fissile material and don't want to waste too much of it on tests. Also remember North Korea is small country, so they don't have vast sparsely populated areas like Siberia, Xinjiang, Western Australia, southern New Mexico, or the South Pacific in which to test nuclear weapons and thus have to be very concerned about the amount of fallout produced.
 
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eu4ea       10/10/2006 1:08:12 AM
It does seem odd - I dont believe the lightweight/limited bomb theories.  Those are much too complex.

The likeliest possibility is that it was a fizzle, and it's even possible that it was not a nuke at all. 1000-1500 tonnes of relatively primitive explosives (mineral, fuel oil/fertilizer, other) would give you a similar effect, and are simple to obtain and relatively cheap ($500/ton). Even with transportation, overhead, etc, you can put together a bomb like that for under $2M.

However, what matters is that they were willing to do something like this - they obviously dont have much fear of what the US can put up, likely because many of our resources (not just military, bt also political and diplomatic) are getting expended on our military adventure in Iraq.

eu4ea


 
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Final Historian       10/10/2006 1:36:00 AM
There is actually little the US can do outside of direct military intervention. China is the only other nation with some control over the NorKors, and they don't want North Korea to fall apart, which would be the likely result of their stopping shipments. Really, Iraq doesn't affect US policy towards North Korea as many people think. About Iran, well, thats very different...
 
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sentinel28a       10/10/2006 2:27:28 AM

Small bombs can also be used against aircraft carrier groups or where enemy is close to friends and where less contamination is desired or where it can be launched from any plane or as an artillery shell to Seoul.


Seoul is a viable target--a small dirty bomb might do a lot of damage there--but I seriously doubt it would do much to a CBG.  For one thing, any of the DPRK's antique bombers would never live long enough to get close, and the accuracy of the DPRK's missiles are extremely questionable.  It's odds on if they can hit a fair-sized city, let alone a relatively small target like a carrier.

 
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