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Subject: N Korean Nuke: Why so small?
PowerPointRanger    10/9/2006 2:13:51 PM
The first reports of the N Korean nuclear test suggest a yield of 550 tons. Not kilotons. Tons. This would make it by far the smallest 1st detonation by any country. Other first tests ranged from 9-60kt. So what happened? I see 2 possibilities: 1) A fizzle--the nuclear equivilent of a dud. It results in a lot of radiation, but not much bang. 2) A hoax--perhaps N Korea has set off a very large conventional explosion to simulate a nuke in order to intimidate its neighbors. Given how closed-off N Korea is, it would be hard to know exactly what happened. I've always been skeptical of N Korea's nuke claims. This test has not been convincing.
 
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PowerPointRanger    You heard it here first...   10/10/2006 8:31:07 AM
Obviously, someone at the Washington Times reads StrategyPage.com.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061009-115158-2477r.htm
 
Now Kim Jong Il is threatening to nuke our neighbors if  we don't talk to them.
 
You know, we could deal with this thug easily enough if we just remembered this simple rule:
                 North Korea will misbehave as long as China doesn't feel the consequences.
 
We need to make China nervous about the consequences.
 
For example, start talking about a nuclear first strike (pre-emption) against N Korea...
 
Or has everyone in Washington forgotten about brinksmanship?
 
Kim Jong Il hasn't.
 
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PlatypusMaximus       10/10/2006 11:10:57 AM
Anyone have any insight as to whether or not you could conduct such a test without the radiation being detected? Japan today is saying that's military planes haven't detected any radiation yet.
 
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EW3       10/10/2006 11:26:29 AM

Anyone have any insight as to whether or not you could conduct such a test without the radiation being detected? Japan today is saying that's military planes haven't detected any radiation yet.


 
Don't see why you couldn't do it.  If it's detonated in a cave that has been sealed shut and the bomb is small enough that it doesn't open any new fissures don't see why radiation would escape.  But with the way the littleone made such a big deal about announcing it to the world, I doubt that secrecy was part of his plan.
Suspect he is going to be sensitive about "how small it is" ;)
We might be able to drive him up the wall by insinuating things in the press.
Shades of Crocodile Dundee - "You call that a nuke?  This is a nuke"  and send him pictures of a W-88....
 
 
 
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reefdiver       10/10/2006 11:43:06 AM

For example, start talking about a nuclear first strike (pre-emption) against N Korea...
Or has everyone in Washington forgotten about brinksmanship?
Kim Jong Il hasn't.

OK. Maybe send Kim a picture of an Ohio with a checklist (and addressed and stamped return envelope) of say 800 sites in NK with a check box by each and a caption "Choose any 200. Please mail by November 1st for prompt service. Act fast and avoid wasting oil on heating this winter."
 
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PowerPointRanger    Dud or Hoax   10/11/2006 9:36:44 PM
I suspect if it was a dud, we'll see another test.  They'll want to get the full bang for their buck (pardon the pun).
If it was a hoax, there's no point.  The bang will never get big enough to top the sensation of the first one.  It will just look lame.
 
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Francois       10/11/2006 10:09:53 PM
Small bombs can also be used against aircraft carrier groups ...

My understanding is that USCGs and others have been designed to work in a threat environment of several Mega-tons of nukes sent to them. That is the results of Bikini tests, and the reason the group is always spread over tenth kilometers.
So a smaller bomb LOL.
Still need to deliver it.
 
I think it a missed, but again, it doen't matter.
A country with the bomb can only be defeated by the bomb.
 
One analyst from The Business was asked what Saddam Hussein would have done if Iraq had possessed nuclear weapons in 1990. He replied that he didn't know what he would have done but he did know what he would not have done - he would not have invaded Kuwait.

One analyst from The Business was asked what Saddam Hussein would have done if Iraq had possessed nuclear weapons in 1990. He replied that he didn't know what he would have done but he did know what he would not have done - he would not have invaded Kuwait.


 
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Francois       10/11/2006 10:10:47 PM
I meant US-CSG, not coast guard LOL!
 
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sentinel28a       10/13/2006 7:11:15 AM
Eh, I don't know, Francois.  Saddam invaded Kuwait primarily because he owed them lots of money and he needed a war to distract his populace with booty.  If Saddam had a nuke, he might have threatened to use it if the UN attempted to interfere with his takeover.
 
Saddam was no Kim, but let's not forget that, despite his love of Doritos, he's not all there either.
 
 
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kensohaski       10/13/2006 4:28:04 PM
Do are smart bombs have Kims addy on them?
 
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Rasputin    Hoax nuke, with radio active particles intentionally released for radioactive confirmation   10/16/2006 12:52:36 PM

The first reports of the N Korean nuclear test suggest a yield of 550 tons. Not kilotons. Tons. This would make it by far the smallest 1st detonation by any country. Other first tests ranged from 9-60kt.

So what happened? I see 2 possibilities:

1) A fizzle--the nuclear equivilent of a dud. It results in a lot of radiation, but not much bang.

2) A hoax--perhaps N Korea has set off a very large conventional explosion to simulate a nuke in order to intimidate its neighbors.

Given how closed-off N Korea is, it would be hard to know exactly what happened. I've always been skeptical of N Korea's nuke claims. This test has not been convincing.

My theory and question for option 2.

Say that the bomb was a hoax like in the 2nd possibility, and a very large conventional explosion was made to simulate a nuclear explosion. Reports of radioactivity are inconsistent, with the US detecting radioactivity, other neighbouring countries not able to do so.

Could it be possible for North Korea to release radioactive particles/material into the air,  specifically when US monitoring planes are overflying an area???????  Is there a specific signature for radioactive materials originating from a nuclear explosion that can be differenciated? Or any kind of radioactive particles could be registered as hot by the geiger and particulate analysis?

If all the above were possible, it could be a likely explanation as to why only the US are able to detect the particles that
are not detected by neighbouring countries. North Korean officials are also keen to show confidence in their bomb, too much confidence for a dud bomb country, that keeps walking out of UN meetings, then suddenly and very quickly wants to come back to negotiate.

 
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