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Subject: Will Korea halt its Nuclear Program, or will other steps have to be taken?
Final Historian    12/31/2002 2:25:37 AM
The leaders of the DPRK are not exactly known for being brilliant, and "Dear Leader" Kim, the head honcho, proves this point perfectly. While Millions of North Koreans are starving or freezing, NK decides to re-start its Nuclear program , and thus forfeit food and fuel aid that will keep its people alive. This begs the point, what is Kim up to? Is he trying to force some concessions out of the US and South Korea? This seems to be a dangerous gamble on his part.If the famine gets any worse there, the country may fall apart. And so the question is: Will North Korea bow to UN and US pressure, and halt its Nuclear Programs re-start? Or will it plow ahead, risking famine, national collapse and/or US airstrikes? Question 2: If the North continues with its Program, how will President Bush respond? Will he authorize airstrikes against North Korean Nuclear facilities? My gut, and history, says yes. He will brave the fallout and expend political capital in order to get rid of a major menace the South Korea and the US. He will likely get as much support from other countries and the UN as he can, but will do it anyway, but this could be a couple of months from now. I don't see foreign resistance to this being very strong, Russia isn't really in the postition to help NK out if it wants to attack the South, and China wouldn't want to jeapordize trade relations with the rest of the world. So i see the North getting very angry, and getting some new holes in some concrete buildings in a time-span as short as a couple of weeks to as long as a couple of months.
 
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American Kafir    RE:Will Korea halt its Nuclear Program, or will other steps have to be taken?   12/31/2002 5:09:14 AM
>>And so the question is: Will North Korea bow to UN and US pressure, and halt its Nuclear Programs re-start? Or will it plow ahead, risking famine, national collapse and/or US airstrikes?<< Don't forget the risk of Russian, Chinese, and Japanese airstrikes. >>Question 2: If the North continues with its Program, how will President Bush respond?<< Keep in mind that North Korea is TRYING to get a rise out of the US. Bush's handling of this non-crisis is classic diplomacy at its best. We have the demeanor of a nation that could vaporize North Korea within 20 minutes of any given moment, if we deemed it necessary. >>Will he authorize airstrikes against North Korean Nuclear facilities? My gut, and history, says yes.<< I don't think it will be necessary. More than likely China will seek to increase it's standing in the world by doing something about the situation themselves. >>He will brave the fallout and expend political capital in order to get rid of a major menace the South Korea and the US. He will likely get as much support from other countries and the UN as he can, but will do it anyway, but this could be a couple of months from now. I don't see foreign resistance to this being very strong, Russia isn't really in the postition to help NK out if it wants to attack the South, and China wouldn't want to jeapordize trade relations with the rest of the world. So i see the North getting very angry, and getting some new holes in some concrete buildings in a time-span as short as a couple of weeks to as long as a couple of months.<< Exactly. The question is, who's going to smash North Korea first?
 
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Final Historian    RE:Will Korea halt its Nuclear Program, or will other steps have to be taken?   12/31/2002 9:55:07 PM
I doubt that the Japanese will do anything that involves military action, as their constitution prohibits it. The Russians don't have the ability to launch a meaningful attack agains the North Korean facilities, as their air force has fallen apart. I don't see them doing anything. The Chinese have been supportive of the North Koreans before, but won't do anything to help them now, because of US pressure. But as for them launching an attack against the North Korean nuclear program... very unlikely. They might possess the ability to launch such an attack, but North Korea is a friend, and to do such a thing would permanently hurt their relationship. And the Chinese helped set up the NK nuclear program, so it would be counter-productive to destroy it. Also, I doub the NK air force would just let the Chinese bomb it, there would be a nasty air battle, as China doesn't possess cruise missiles that are accurate enough to hit the facility. No, if anyone is going to do anything, it will be the US. The question is, how long will Bush wait?
 
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