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Subject: 150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border
UH1Charlie    9/17/2003 12:46:21 PM
BBC World News reported on 9/15/03 that the Chinese are replacing it's border police with 150,000 Combat troops along the Yalu. The spin put on the BBC story is that China is trying to pressure North Korea to end it's nuke program. Oddly enough this contridicts China's receint message to the U.S. that the North Korea/US's nuke row was 'not their problem'. Looking at China's action's, rather than it's agit/prop, would seem to pose a rather omnious message regarding possible outcomes of a U.S. premptive first strike on the North's nuclear capibilities. For the last 50 years U.S. foreign policy has been overshadowed by the threat of Chinese intervention. I believe China's intention in this matter is to send a not too subtle message to the pentagon's war gamers. Check your move...
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Philippine Soldier    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   9/18/2003 8:34:22 AM
Nobody knows exactly what China would do once the shooting starts, if it happens. One thing is for sure, China would intervene.
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bombard    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/4/2003 1:45:59 PM
Second that. The last thing China wants is a land border with a US-friendly country. Asking the old roman question, Qui Bono? China is sitting pretty at the moment. Its does'nt have to subsidise the NK too much, so its cheap. It also keeps SK on edge, that means that its open to pressure. And it gives leverage over the US on some issues. SK's situation is not that bad. (ok, living next to a armed nutcase is'nt good, but still) Its econemy is still strong, so that keeps the politicans in power, it has a extremly stong army and airforce so its conventionally secure against starving NK Troops. But if/when NK goes nuclear? The US, SK and Japan suddenly become very vulnerable. A nuclear statement from NK would inevitably trigger a crisis, at the very least. What would be the chinese reaction? it already has good and profitable relations with SK. SK has excellent technology that China needs. Korea was once Chinese territory. And China has a habit of wanting all its old empire back in the fold. Given that an Western and SK response would be inevitable, would it be in China interests to be able to launch a rapid coup against the Koreans? To do an Afganistan on it? Perhaps doing a deal from the US and SK first for Tech/Trade? The benefits are: Stability and direct control over Korea. Bases within range of Japan, and capable of closing off the main Russian Pacfic base if required. Access directly to Pacfic. Some minerals, some industry. Some agricultural land. The Cons: 20 million destitute Koreans. Would it be worth it? I think yes. So thats my bet folks: Event: NK declares that it has nuclear weapons, probably 2004/2005 SK US Japan go ballistic. International Conference, including some western powers, Russia and China. Private meeting between SK China US Followed by: Coup in NK, and invasion by China. Perhaps annexed to China? Another international conference, followed by massive food aid.
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xinjiang    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/7/2003 3:14:46 AM
Of course there are NK infiltrators killing NK refugees and the local chinese who help them. China won't let NK go nuclear because then Japan will have 2000 of the best nukes the world has ever seen within one year. The US and Korea should get Russia involved as much as possible to in order to stem Chinese influence.
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oregon_x_marine    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/18/2003 4:24:21 PM
Interesting comments from all! I HOPE NK's willingness to negotiate is a sign of weakness from "the nutcase with a bad haircut." I hope the Bush Administation will NOT come to any agreement, string out the political dialoge and let the NK state fail this winter! Remember, the fish rots from the head, thus NK could implode without much violence (re: the Soviet Union). Having NK fail with make all the players "show their hands," which will clairfy all the actors true intentions and benefit us greatly. - If China tries to "stabilize" NK, then all of Asia and the world will have to see the ChiComs as they are, not what we wish them to be. - Helping SK feed a few million NK's is certainly much cheaper then building nukes, ABM systems etc for us and Japan. - A key source of WMD technology will no longer be available to the highest bidder. - We can begin an immediate drawdown of forces in Korea and deploy them elsewhere!!! - We can concentrate on detering/moderating future Chinese aspiration in Asia. If we are patient, it will be a bloodless victory...not to mention the liberation of 20 million people from a horrible and cruel tyranny.
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bsl    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/18/2003 8:35:31 PM
Has no one considered the possibility that there may be an agreement, or tacit understanding, between Beijing and Washington? Just speculation, but I rather suspect Washington considers the threat that a NK nuclear capability will lead, directly, to an international sale of nuclear weapons completely unacceptable. If anyone has been paying attention to the comments from Washington since 9-11, they'd see a connection made, repeatedly, between NK and other, Middle Eastern countries and groups. This is the nexus of connection. And, from Washington's point of view, the attitude of SK over the last few years, that reunification with the North might be nice, but SK doens't want to pay the bill for the foreseeable future, must seem almost beyond belief. The policies this has led Seoul into over this period have cost SK a LOT of the sympathy America has had since the Korean War. At present, my guess is that the happiness of SK has dropped almost completely off the American list of priorities and even the safety of SK probably drops below preventing NK from going into the nuclear bomb business. In this context, the previously unthinkable becomes thinkable and it may be that Washington would consider a PRC army crossing the NK border preferable to an NK in the bomb business. This is nothing but speculation, but I have confidence in the reevaluation of national priorities angle.
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oregon_x_marine    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/19/2003 12:02:55 PM
I read somewhere than a strategist working in an Indian think tank believes that China uses Pakistan and NK as proxies against China's two biggest threats; India and Japan/America. I believe his thesis will be put to the tests very soon. China is playing a very dangerous game if they are using NK's nuclear program as leverage against US interest/standing in Asia.
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Final Historian    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/19/2003 12:34:20 PM
I agree with the Indian guy. But NK as a proxy can be dangerous, as if NK gets nukes and starts making them, than there is serious incentive for Japan, SK and possibly even Taiwan to get them as well.
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bsl    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   11/19/2003 7:09:34 PM
Anything is possible, and Chinese decision making is as impenetrable as that of any country I can think of. Still, I have trouble with the idea that Beijing might seriously contemplate allowing NK to acquire a real nuclear capability of it's own. Even Beijing, in the Mao era - heck, during the Cultural Revolution - tended to consider NK dangerously unstable and uncontrollable. With only conventional weapons, NK could never directly threaten China. It could become a problem in context of a larger threat, but never by itself. With nuclear weapons, however, all bets are off. NK could badly hurt China, by itself, and any sales made to third parties could easily come back to China, in the worst possible way. Many, if not most, of the potential customers for NK are Islamic, and China has a real, growing problem with an Islamic insurgency in the far west, among the Uighurs.
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ace    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   12/5/2003 7:00:34 AM
China and North Korea are both communist states, china is alos NK's only ally. Could it be possible that china is sending forces to support north korea in th event of a us led attack?
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919    RE:150,000 Chinese Troops sent to N. Korean border   12/9/2003 8:16:59 PM
And what good would that do? The last time the US and China fought we beat the snot out of them. The US has gotten better since than and the Chinese have gotten worse. Remember that the Chinese army is what keeps the government in power. If the army gets slaughterd fighting Americans,(and it will, a conscript army is just a bunch of targets by 21st century standards) the government falls. You can call it what you want, but China in the 21st century is a military dictatorship. Just because the top guy is not a general doesn't make it a democracy, or even Socialism. Anybody remember Tiananmen? The North Koreans have even less of a chance of overthrowing Kim then the Chinese at Tiananmen did. You can forget about the fish rotting from the top. I think the most likly outcome is a Chinese sponsored coup. That would not be so hard for them to arrange. I'll bet they could even get the ROK's to pay for it. That way the PRC keeps it's buffer zone and the US doesn't have to worry about AQ buying nukes on the installment plan. Either that or Kim finally wakes up and smells the tea, grabs a few billion and heads for the South of France for a 50 or 60 year vacation. Either way works. Regime change lite. 919
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