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Subject: Just like the Israelis did
FJV    8/11/2003 3:20:51 PM
What are the chances of destroying North Korea's Nuclear Research and production facilities with airstrikes. Just like what the Israelis did with the Iraq Osirak nuclear reactor. Would North Korea really start a war? Would Chinese, Japanese, South Korean rulers be pissed off publicly, but behind closed doors express a sigh of relief? America has the stealth airplanes that could pull this off. Does America also have the specialized bombs? It may be wise to repeatedly train US pilots in simulators specifically for this mission. So the option is at least available when it may be needed.
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capitalist72    RE:Just like the Israelis did   8/11/2003 3:56:01 PM
The Israeli's did it prior to Iraq achieving nuclear capability - which North Korea already has (?). They wanted to work with India to knock out Pakistan's reactor in the 80's when the Pakis hadn't yet achieved the capability to make nuclear bombs - but India's pig-headed politicians said "we can take care of our own security requirements" and now India has next door nuclear armed mullahs. If it doesn't work, the risks are extreme. If North Korea's nuclear weapons were in the works, it would've been a definite option - anyway, I'm sure the US is training and retraining pilots for this particular strike. But you can't be sure whether they've ferreted away some weapons to other unknown sites. In future, the US shouldn't be so relaxed about transfer of missile technology and nuclear technology to countries to dictatorships, fundamentalist regimes, and communist states which by their very nature are inherently unstable. Clinton turned a blind eye throughout his administration to transfer of technology throughout the proliferating regimes: China, North Korea, and Pakistan.
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celebrim    RE:Just like the Israelis did   8/23/2003 9:15:07 AM
"Would North Korea really start a war?" That's the $64 million dollar question. The DPRK is doing a really good job of pretending to be mentally unstable - so good a job that noone is really sure that they aren't. They might well start shelling (nuking?) Seoul. "Would Chinese, Japanese, South Korean rulers be pissed off publicly, but behind closed doors express a sigh of relief?" Yes, and assuming no war, I think that about sums it up. "America has the stealth airplanes that could pull this off. Does America also have the specialized bombs?" It depends on just how hardened the target is. I'll let some the munitions experts give estimates of how much concrete we can dig through with a bomb, but for the most part I don't think that whether we could bomb the munitions factory is the hard question. The hard questions are these: "Can we get the right intelligence so that we will be sure that we are hitting the right thing?" "Given that the whole country is ran by a self-interested megalomaniac, can we threaten the _person_ of that megalomaniac enough that he fears to retaliate through war?" In the case of that second question, the question of whether we have the specialized 'bunker busting' bombs is I think more relevant. I think part of what may be motivating Kim Jung Ill is the belief that he could place himself in a secret very deep bunker which would be immune to attack, start a war, force a favorable truce do to the unwillingness of the 'decadent West' to take the large numbers of casualties he believes are required to occupy the country - and then ultimately improve his position despite the suffering he caused. At least I worry that that may be part of his thinking. The other worry is of course that Kim Jung Ill is becoming desparate, because his country is about to collapse and he fears one day swinging from a lamppost more than he fears the west. In that light, a completely ruthless dictator might see a war that kills off a large portion of the populace as preferable to a revolt provided he could force a draw. I encourage you to read 'A Deepness in the Sky' by Vernor Vinge.
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celebrim    RE:Just like the Israelis did   8/23/2003 9:19:14 AM
"Clinton turned a blind eye throughout his administration to transfer of technology throughout the proliferating regimes:" Not only did he turn a blind eye, but he signed executive degrees so that some of his top donors (Loreal for instance) could evade US law to sell that technology to China. In fact, at one point he was even accepting campaign donations from the Chinese Secret Service, but let's not go there again.
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capitalist72    RE:Just like the Israelis did   8/23/2003 10:13:55 AM
I remember backing Bush extensively during the electoral runup because I felt that the Republicans had a more sound foreign policy: i.e. one that recognised the future threat emanating from China, and the fundamentalist one from the terrorist-central region of Pakistan-Afghanistan. The first few months were really promising - then 9-11 came about and screwed up all the positive trends which were swallowed up for the immediate requirement of crushing Al-Qaeda.
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tomanbeg    RE:Just like the Israelis did   8/24/2003 2:46:47 PM
Bush is still half steppin it. We need a politician that can organize the 'democratic' nations to gang up on all the countries with non-representative governments. Get rid of tyranny and maybe we can get rid of terrorism and at the same time start the search for some way other then war to settle issues between nations. Put War back into it's natural habitat, ie; computer wargames. T.
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Final Historian    RE:Just like the Israelis did   10/3/2003 6:53:27 PM
Tomanbeg, that would be nice, if we lived in an ideal world. We don't. Many democratic nations are run by people who hate the US, and would do things to spite us. France and Russia. Then there are nations that have a strong pacifist influence, and wouldn't fight a war that isn't for self-defense(that they didn't start, anyway). Think Germany. As for taking the NorK nuclear program out, Yes, I think we could destroy or at least cripple their program. The problem is that we might not be able to get some of their weapons, which are buried very deep. And then there is the matter of NorK arty pointing at Seoul. I suspect we will continue to wait and hope that NK falls apart.
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bond_manager    RE:Just like the Israelis did   10/28/2003 4:59:40 PM
1. what if their facilities are deep underground reinforced concrete structure in mountains. i am not talking about primitive bin laden's caves. it would be pretty darn hard to get'em all. 2. what if you miss a nuc warheads and they (NK) send them to Seoul, Tokyo, Guam, etc...
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FJV    RE:Just like the Israelis did   10/29/2003 1:03:12 PM
Depends on how long you wait. The longer you wait the more the 2 points (and others) you raised become obstacles to such a strike. So with the passing of time the bunkers will be more reinforced and North Korea will have made more nukes. Making this option undesirable/unrealistic. Maybe it's already too late to consider this option. Maybe not. I haven't heard yet about North Korea succesfully detonating a nuke. For point 2 you could consider a missile defense system as a backup plan. (just to be sure that you can take the one missile out that wasn't destroyed) If only you would have a missile defence system (Bush may be on to something). I hear several different stories about the effectiveness of Patriots against missiles.
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Philippine Soldier    RE:Just like the Israelis did   10/30/2003 8:50:56 AM
Definitely the US can successfully destroy the nuclear facilities in North Korea. Using stealth bombers and smart bombs. But North Korea will definitely respond and attack the closest target. That would be South Korea. This will be the continuation of the suspended war.
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Sikman    RE:Just like the Israelis did   10/30/2003 3:38:04 PM
No I fear it is impossible to destroy North Koreas nuclear programs. We waited too long anything we do now will be 2 little to late. I suggest we concentrate on the Iranian/Saudi Arabian nuke programs and not make the same mistake twice. Of course With Islamic nation of Pakistan being nuclear armed they are merely an assasins bullet away from getting in the hands of Muslim terrorists so sleep tight y'all.
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