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Subject: What are the real chances of Korean War II?
patriotscheme    5/23/2003 12:05:02 AM
Seeing that the U.S. is deeply entrenched with the reconstruction of Iraq and there also is a presidential election looming (meaning no more wars until post-election time), does anyone really think that U.S. policy will continue to follow the Bush Doctrine (assuming he is re-elected) and conduct regime-change in North Korea? Can/will the U.S. be able to pull off such an armed conflict with so many forces tied down elsewhere, Seoul held hostage by artillery, and world opinion so tainted with anti-Americanism?
 
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MTS    tomanbeg 2 things   8/16/2003 3:47:57 AM
The China/Vietnam episode was quite a long time ago, so you can't judge today's China by that. Second, control means economic control. I think these days, countries tend not to invade a country with tanks and planes. Both China and Japan want to see Korea divided and the longer it is divided, the more of a burden DPRK is for South Korea. Besides, I am not sure if they could both be reunited.
 
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MTS    Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/16/2003 3:54:55 AM
Don't forget the Japanese did not invade China solely, there was a lot of resistance elsewhere. It is hard to imagine Asia being swallowed up by such a small country, don't you think? Before the US arrived, China had been fighting many years by themselves.
 
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WinsettZ    RE:Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/16/2003 8:05:15 AM
It is very hard to imagine that Japan could swallow up all of Asia; but it has precedent from Alexander the Great. While conquest is possible, fighting a guerrilla war would be at best, untenable. Moving on to KW2, I would have to ask the RAND corporation about it.
 
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FJV    RE:Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/16/2003 3:24:47 PM
I think Mao would propably could have handled the Japanese. What I've seen about Mao indicates that he was a very competent strategist and a mass murdering thug as a leader.
 
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bsl    RE:Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/16/2003 7:29:15 PM
"I think Mao would propably could have handled the Japanese. What I've seen about Mao indicates that he was a very competent strategist and a mass murdering thug as a leader." When you handicap total war, if both sides are led by people willing to commit mass murder, go with the side that has the better military. The Chinese of either Mao or Chiang were hopelessly outclassed by the IJA of the era. And, the Japanese, both by tradition, and the policy of the Military Clique which had taken power, was willing and able to kill as many Chinese as it took to win. Without huge outside help, or something to distract the Japanese effort, than the only alternative to an almost unlimited pile of Chinese corpses would have been a mass religious conversion of Japan to pacifism.
 
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FJV    RE:Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/19/2003 3:03:47 PM
When you handicap total war, if both sides are led by people willing to commit mass murder, go with the side that has the better military. The Chinese of either Mao or Chiang were hopelessly outclassed by the IJA of the era. And, the Japanese, both by tradition, and the policy of the Military Clique which had taken power, was willing and able to kill as many Chinese as it took to win. What you say makes this look very much like Hitler vs Stalin. Both sides willing to use utter brutality. One side superior in quality the other side potentially superior in number (when given the choice between Mao or the Japanese I think the Chinese would choose Mao). The Japanese controlling ever vaster amounts of territory thus spreading increasingly thin. Lack of consideration of logistics for the Japanese. And Mao would have to move/start War productions in unoccupied areas. This would make an interesting what if.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:tomanbeg 2 things   8/24/2003 8:28:40 PM
Why not? The fight before that was in Korea and the chinese got smashed there also. The decision to not run the chinese out of Korea was a political one, not a military one. Truman was a coward, which is why he didn't serve a second term. And AFAIK all the little battles fought between the Soviets and the Chinese were won by the Soviets. So the lose in Vietnam was normal for the PLA. Why do you think they will do any better next time? The PLA exists to keep the government in power. They are godd at machine gunning unarmed people, but really bad at fighting battles aginst armed opponents. It is unusual for men to risk their lives to keep some fat slug in power. Like all conscript soldiers, the PLA fights because they have no choice. With JSOW's and JDAM's taking out the party leaders, they will decide not to die. That is the decision all conscripts make when given a choice. And the entire idea of economic contol is invalid. Do you read any history? Adam Smith was correct. Attempts to contol an economy directly NEVER work. The 20th century proved that. I think you are wrong about Japan wanting to see Korea divided. You are thinking classic Socialism "divide and conquor". Capitalism teaches that "co-operate and grow" is the way to go about it. Don't fight over a bigger slice of pie, make a pie big enough for everyone to have their fill. This is the way Americans think and it is why we indirectly control most of this planet. And Korea will have less trouble assorbing the north then Germany did with the east. N. Koreans have no idea what they are missing. Give them a little food and some control over their own life, and they will be OK. China and Japan will both make a bunch of money off re-uniting the Koreas, and that will be the ultimate arguement for going to war. Bismark said "Politics is made with blood and Iron". It was in his day, but in the 21st century it is blood and gold. You can quote me on that if you want. T.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:Without USA, China would not have been ruled by Japan   8/24/2003 8:36:45 PM
What war production? I don't china was capable of manufacturing a single modern weapon. They even bought their rifles. And you are thinking along US lines of logistics. the Japanese got along without logistics, which is a big part of why they lost, but would not have made a difference if the USA had stayed out of the Niponese-Chinese war. I have seen numbers as high as 60 million for the number of Chinese killed by the Japanese between 1931 and 1945. Not seen any evidence, but any way you stack them that is a pile of bodies. Should still be forensic evidence around. T.
 
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MTS    Korean issue is very complicated   8/26/2003 7:59:17 AM
Don't draw any fast conclusions, please. It is not certain whether China, Japan or South Korea would like to see unification soon. It is better for everyone if the North opens slowly and builds up the economy.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:Korean issue is very complicated   8/26/2003 10:22:31 AM
Better for everyone? How about the 100,000 or more Koreans that will starve to death next year? I can tell you are not from a civilized nation. Only Barbarians let people starve to death. And in the end, the only one that matters is President Bush. If he decides to change the regime in North Korea, what anyone else thinks about that won't matter. The Regime will get changed. The USA is still at WAR with the DPRK. There has been a 50 year truce, but either side can cancel a truce and go back to war when ever they want to. And we won't need many troops to do it either. The ROK has plenty, all the USA needs is to provide the Air Power( B2's and B-52's). And re-unification is inevitable. It's only a question of when. The sooner it happens the less it will cost. This past June would have been better then next June, but Next June is better then June of '05. And Bush will get re-elected. By a landslide. The Dems are clueless about what is happening outside their Greenwich Village tail parties. T.
 
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