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Subject: What are the real chances of Korean War II?
patriotscheme    5/23/2003 12:05:02 AM
Seeing that the U.S. is deeply entrenched with the reconstruction of Iraq and there also is a presidential election looming (meaning no more wars until post-election time), does anyone really think that U.S. policy will continue to follow the Bush Doctrine (assuming he is re-elected) and conduct regime-change in North Korea? Can/will the U.S. be able to pull off such an armed conflict with so many forces tied down elsewhere, Seoul held hostage by artillery, and world opinion so tainted with anti-Americanism?
 
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Thomas    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   7/8/2003 9:20:08 AM
The problem is: Is NK able to fight a civil war? the party and the army seems to realise that divided they fall.
 
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MTS    There will not be a 2nd Korean War nor a Chinese invasion   8/10/2003 9:21:07 PM
Countries only go to war if they feel it will be an easy victory. For this reason, both NK and the US will not be drawn into a war easily. As for the NK govt, they are happy with the status quo, all they want is bread on the table, why should they want to risk losing power by going to war with ROK? And NK has no oil so there is no reason why the US would invade. Moreover, the image of the US has gone downhill since the last Iraq war, the Americans have too much to lose if they go ahead with another war for no reaon. I certainly don't believe China would invade NK.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   8/11/2003 7:06:48 AM
100% Kim has got to go, and when is the last time a Socialist Dictator left willingly? You cannot negoiate with the DPRK. Clinton and Carter proved that in the early 90's. War will start in May or June of '04. There will be a 20 day air campaign followed by a 72 hour ground campaign. The DPRK will collapse faster the the Iraqi's did. The DPRK has absolutly no Idea of what a modern war looks like. They have a huge army that is built to control the population, not fight a war. The Soldiers will choose to quit instead of die, as soon as they figure out that fighting back is impossible. T.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:There will not be a 2nd Korean War nor a Chinese invasion   8/11/2003 7:19:18 AM
You are wrong. It will be an easy war. And Bush will fight it because; A. It will help with his re-election. B. It will put a crimp in the "pop a nuke for Allah" campaign being waged by the Arabs. C. The DPRK will be a walk in the park. D. No lingering after effects (bug hunts) like Iraq. We can just give the place to S. Korea and let them hunt bugs there if they want. Your theory also lacks any idea on how to solve the problem that is presented by a nation that brags about selling nuclear devices to terrorist groups presents to the United Ststes of America. If you think the USA is just going to sit around and watch while the DPRK builds nukes and sells them to hezzabolla you are out of your mind. No, Bush will nuke the DPRK before that happens. If he won't we will elect some one that will. T.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   8/11/2003 7:33:36 AM
Never happen. Modern military equipment mostly uses fiber optics for data transmission which is not affected by EMP. EMp is rough on tubes, but modern IC are pretty much immune. there is a critical range on the circuitry. inside that range and it acts as a sinle conduit and there is no arching. Second the range of an EMP generated by a nuke isn't that great. So even if it got down to pointy sticks and fist sized rocks, the S. Koreas would fight and they out number the DPRK by a considerable margin. They could hold the commies off until the USA shipped in kit from stateside, or Japan. EMPs don't affect Laser aiming devices. You ned to brush up on your physics. This idea belongs in the same trash can as the Iraqi's one about GPS Jamming. The Russians sold the Iraqi's a bill of goods on that one, but being russian they screwed up by not getting paid first. Tell you what, I have a majic juju that keeps bullets from hitting you. For 2,000 US$ each I can deliver them anywhere you want. As many as you want. They are made by an Indian shaman, so you know they work. Cash up front for most customers, but for you, today, half down and half on delivery. T.
 
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tomanbeg    RE:Korean War II? ... Yamauchi   8/11/2003 7:52:35 AM
The problem with this idea is that the UN is broke. They have no money, and no way of earning any. BTW, China has better relations with S. Korea then the DPRK. China just doesn't have the army to take out the DPRK. the Chinese army is needed to keep the chinese leaders in power. They take 50K casualties doing the DPRK and the government will fall. And don't forget what happened when China tried to invade Vietnam. They got their A$$ kicked back into China. The Chinese army is only good for murdering unarmed civilians and as a threat to other nations in the region. Getting stomped by the DPRK would expose them for the paper Tiger they are. China knows that if they wait, The USA will solve this little problem for them. And since they have more time then the USA waiting is a good thing. Plus while the French may have perfected doing nothing and hoping the problem goes away, the Chinese invented it. Americans SOLVE problems, which is why we rule this planet, and will continue to do so for at least the rest of this century. T.
 
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MTS    tomanbeg But what will it do for US' image?   8/11/2003 2:59:08 PM
Most would agree the image of the US has gone downhill recently. Since the US could not justify the last war in Iraq, they better think about another adventure. The US is truly the real rogue state out there. What is wrong wrong with NK selling weapons anyway? Is there some rule stating only the US can sell weapons worldwide? I don't think South Korea would agree to a war anyway for they will a, probably be bombed in some way and b, they will get a flood of refugees that will cripple their economy. To the other guy: China/Vietnam was a long time ago. Don't use that as a marker of the Chinese military today.
 
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MTS    tomanbeg You have few ideas about Korea and Asia at large   8/11/2003 3:04:59 PM
Reading your thread just sounds like you think the US is here to solve all problems when in fact it has created more problems around the world. In the long run, you ought to ask yourself if China would control the Korean peninsula or not.
 
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celebrim    RE:Korean War II? ... Yamauchi   8/11/2003 4:28:02 PM
War between the DPKR and any other power is extremely unlikely. For one thing, DPKR has nothing to gain from a war with anyone, and everything to gain by maintaining its ability to threaten that can get worse. Things can't get much worse if they go on the offensive. The analysis that notes that China has virtually no ability to operate a military force outside its own borders is spot on, especially considering the considerable size of the DPKR military on paper I doubt that China even remotely considers the possibility of action against North Korea attractive (or for that matter necessary). For the US part, the Bush policy seems to be to kick the economic crutch out from under North Korea as much as they dare, stall, and wait for the straw hut to come collapsing down. They have been rather public about leaving open the nuclear option should North Korea get too free with its nuclear ambitions, which has bound to give North Korea some pause. Unless the government in North Korea is even more insane than they appear, I can't imagine them forcing the US hand regarding nuclear retaliation. And that's about where it stops. Because even if Bush was so inclined to take in another stray dog and try to nurse it back to help, he simply doesn't have the resources to do so. We are fully committed with our conventional forces at present, and I question whether we have the man power to hold, retrain, and restore even the areas we have presently conquered much less another sinkhole the size of North Korea. There is little question that South Korea couldn't handle a North Korea offensive itself with only minimal US help but they have no interest in starting the conflict or in seeing us start the conflict. Afterall, any conflict in North Korea is going to involve serious damage to South Korea's infrastructure and other discomfort whether the war stays conventional or goes nuclear. So in short, no one benifits by a war, no one thinks that they benifit from a war, and no one sees the war as being an easy victory (at least in terms of the consequences) and North Korea's regime has no more than a decade of life left in its feeble body anyway so why bother going to an extraordinary effort to kick it down. If US food aid is withdrawn, the country violently collapses in six months, and its largely compassion and a desire to avoid burdening South Korea that prevents us from doing so rather than fear of North Korea's 'vast' nuclear arsenal.
 
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MTS    celebrim I think North Korea will last for quite a long time   8/11/2003 4:53:02 PM
North and South Korea are not like East and West Germany. East Germans had the comfort of receiving information about the outside world, North Koreans don't. Besides, they have been split for so long, why should they unite again? Maybe NK would follow China's footsteps and liberalise the economy.
 
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