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Subject: What are the real chances of Korean War II?
patriotscheme    5/23/2003 12:05:02 AM
Seeing that the U.S. is deeply entrenched with the reconstruction of Iraq and there also is a presidential election looming (meaning no more wars until post-election time), does anyone really think that U.S. policy will continue to follow the Bush Doctrine (assuming he is re-elected) and conduct regime-change in North Korea? Can/will the U.S. be able to pull off such an armed conflict with so many forces tied down elsewhere, Seoul held hostage by artillery, and world opinion so tainted with anti-Americanism?
 
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joe6pack    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/6/2003 10:44:01 AM
So whats everyones thoughts on the U.S. plan to withdraw troops to points at least 75 miles south of the DMZ? Will it ease tentions? Or will it be taken as a sign be the NK's that the U.S. is just moving its troops out of harms way? I would actually like to see all U.S. troops completely withdrawn from Korea. The South Koreans have a sizable and well equipped military that by all rights should be able to handle the defense of South Korea.
 
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greytraveller    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/6/2003 11:17:47 AM
The redeployment of US troops in South Korea is a long overdue Big step in the right direction. The US 2nd Infantry Division (Mech) makes up the bulk of US ground forces in Korea. The 2nd ID is a large, powerful armored division (much like 3rd ID) that is best equipped and trained to attack and maneuver, not defend. The 2nd ID is best used (in event of a war) as a powerful counterattack force to strike back after an initial North Korean invasion. The redeployment will take 2nd ID out of the DMZ, out of range of NK artillery. US headquarters is also planned to be moved south out of Seoul. Don't expect a complete US withdrawal from Korea, or even a major reduction. The Korea situation is slowly reaching crises proportions. The US needs a strong force in Korea until the nuclear 'issue' is resolved.
 
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bsl    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/6/2003 7:47:37 PM
The point of a redeployment isn't to "ease tensions". They don't have the capacity to attack NK. They were never a real provocation in a military sense. The point is to remove them from easy NK reach, so that NK can't try to play games by attacking them or feigning attack. They were always a "tripwire" force, whose presence guaranteed that America would defend SK in any new war because once fighting started, large numbers of America personnel would come under immediate attack. Moving them removes the immediate pressure.
 
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Yamauchi    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/12/2003 2:41:08 PM
The chances of a Korean War II are quite real. If North Korea's sanctions can be tightened (which is currently underway) the future of the DPRK is very bleak. Complete economic collapse could be within the next 2 years, and reunification is a real likelyhood. Regardless, the US military is preparing for contigency operations for the end of 2003. If diplomatic measures end with no positive results, the US will be posed to make surgical strikes in December. US soldiers will be out of the DMZ and out of range of counter-attacks. 6+2 aircraft carriers will also be at a surge and emergency surge status in December in case a Korean crisis. December 31st could be the 'redline' threshold, as GlobalSecurity.org calls it.
 
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Shaka of Carthage    RE:Korean War II? ... Yamauchi   6/14/2003 1:53:34 PM
I will conditionally agree. NK regime will fall one way or the other within the next four years. Bush won't take any action on his own, until after the 2004 elections. Japan can't act. South Korea won't. Then there is China. She doesn't want a US dominated government on its border. It would be in her best interests, either as a coup or a invasion, to enact a regime change in NK. The only drawback, is that she needs outside money to help rebuild NK. If I was China, I would do the invasion, with or without US approval (better with). Then I would go to the UN and explain why, as to achieve UN approval (and $ help). Its a win-win for everyone.
 
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macawman    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/20/2003 11:19:51 PM
I have the distinct feeling that the US is priming Japan to take out NK's nuclear sites. June 20, 2003: The Japanese media is reporting that American intelligence has told the Japanese government that North Korea already has build nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles. These missiles can reach Japan. The missiles are not all that reliable or accurate, and North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons design it might have, but this story has still created an enormous reaction from the Japanese public, who are becoming increasingly fearful of, and hostile towards, North Korea.
 
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Shaka of Carthage    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/21/2003 10:57:48 AM
Japan can't act. The rest of the Asian world would go nuts if Japan bombed NK.
 
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bsl    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/21/2003 9:42:25 PM
1)Possibility of war, at some point, is real. Apart from the general zaniness of the NK regime, which has ALWAYS been more than a little out there, the system is so much of a failure that the country is, quite literally, starving to death before our eyes. At the same time, SK is one of the great success stories of the second half of the 20th centuries. Starting almost literally from scratch, a fairly backward Japanese colony which was burnt to the ground by the NKs during the first Korean War, SK has emerged as a genuinely successful, wealthy, productive country. NK, IOW, sees it's own delusions crumbling before it's eyes, and the risk of the complete collapse of the whole rotten system in the near future. At the same time, they see the people they've spent their lives claiming are failures enjoying as much success as a people can aspire to. Communists have not been known for admitting the failure of their worldview, anywhere in the world. The NKs, as well as being as especially vile form of communism, have added a peculiar form of personality cult to the equation. Admitting failure is even more difficult for them. When a man, a regime, a system looks complete defeat in the face, when it looks to them as if their whole world is likely to fall apart, it becomes eminently possible for them to consider things which even they might, in better times, have thought to be suicidally risky, or just crazy. No matter how many times people run the sims and decide that an NK attack on SK doesn't make military sense, this is the state of mind they'd better be allowing for. A long shot, balanced against what is seen as certain defeat, becomes the BETTER policy choice. The preferred option. 2)The real risk of NK, as far as America is concerned, right now, is NOT launching another Korean War. It's NK going into the nuclear bomb business. As it seems to be doing, or trying to do, right now. The dynamic driving the American part of the equation is the export of WMD by NK. This is why America seems to be suggesting that we don't care quite as much what SK, or, even Japan, want or are willing to do, in the present context. The bottom line is that we see an NK policy which is absolutely, totally unacceptable and about which there can be no compromise. If we preserve a pristine SK, but find NK nukes going off elsewhere in the world, we've lost. Since those nukes might be going off INSIDE America, we've lost a good deal more than we're willing to risk. Don't mistake this. The Bush Administration is looking at NK as an exported of nuclear weapons to anyone with the hard currency to pay for them. They're going to deal with this, one way or another. 3)The "We'll get Japan to bomb NK" idea strikes me as too clever by half. It's more a plot for a novel than a real policy in the real world. Far too uncertain. 4)I suspect Shaka is right about China not wanting a Korea friendly to America on it's border. I also suspect that to the extent China has really thought the implications of what NK is doing, through, they can't be happy at the thought of those lunatics having nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, guessing what Beijing will do is not a good way to make a living. I have no confidence we can get Beijing to do anything, at all, in the positive sense. And, the time pressure attendent with the nuclear export issue may drive American policy to act faster than we could possibily get China to act, even if we could. 5)Yes, East Asia would go nuts if Japan launched offensive military operations. Japan would be crazy to allow this to stop them if they had good reason to believe that NK was going to test their toys on Japanese soil.
 
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Heorot    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   6/23/2003 5:03:58 PM
Consider this as a scenario. NK is not trying to put nuclear warheads on missiles to attack Japan, but to inflict a defeat on America. A sound ludicrous doesn't it? Here's how it works. NK gets very belligerent towards SK and America responds by sending reinforcements and probably another carrier group too. NK launches a conventional attack on SK. America immediately responds with more troops and equipment and counter-attacks. It is at this point that NK launches its nuclear tipped missiles. But they are aimed to explode in the high atmosphere above the main US forces preferably in the region of the carrier group and near one or more GPS satellites. The massive EMP pulses burn out all the electronics used by US forces. No more radios, computers or aircraft. Warships are dead in the water. Military vehicles are devoid of laser rangefinder etc. The army is left to try to fight blind and without air cover against a massively numerically superior NK army. Casualties mount and America beats an ignominious retreat.
 
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malek01    RE:What are the real chances of Korean War II?   7/8/2003 8:55:42 AM
What if - NK collapses, and turns into a civil war? Perhaps even 3 sided, with Old Guard VS New Communists(supported by China?) VS Democratic Pro-Reunification people (supported by SK and the US?) Also - I can see that China acting as a force to end this situation has its benefits - China does not seem to be as 'restricted' by public opinion as the US...but wouldn't that be a dangerous precedent? China is known to have ambitions of 'liberating' Taiwan at least, and having the precedent of invading NK - even for UN sanctioned humanitarian reasons - could be a very dangerous step. ...just the musings of an armchair general...
 
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