Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Korea Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Kim Jong-il reported dead
Librarian    12/18/2011 10:19:24 PM
The BBC is reporting that N. Korean TV is reporting that Kim Jong-Il is dead.
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
Reactive       12/18/2011 11:13:11 PM
Goodbye to an utterly vile man. 
The next few days will be interesting to say the least.
Quote    Reply

Reactive       12/18/2011 11:23:14 PM
In other news from North Korea:
New Machine to Be Introduced in Next Year's Farm Work

Pyongyang, December 14 (KCNA) -- Kye Ung Sang College of Agriculture affiliated with Kim Il Sung University has developed a new-type combined farm machine.

The machine, attached to tractor, is capable of plowing, harrowing and leveling rice fields simultaneously. 

It can remarkably improve the rice field management, while sharply reducing tractor's working hours and consumption of fuel.

The efficient machine is to be introduced in farm work from next year. 

Headgears Popular among Korean Women in Winter

Pyongyang, December 14 (KCNA) -- Many Korean women have chosen headgears to wear in winter instead of boa or headscarf. 

Headgears are made with woolen yarn, leather or overcoat fabric of various colors.

Pae Ryon Hwa, a 42-year-old woman living in Pothonggang District, Pyongyang, told KCNA:

"I like to wear a headgear. It is better than boa. I look stylish with this headgear. I think it is also good for health. I had used to wear a boa in winter. But it made me sweat and feel choky. So I had caught cold easily. Since I began wearing a headgear, I have felt better."

Winter headgear is also economically better than boa or headscarf because woolen yarn for one boa is enough for three headgears.

Strangely nothing reported yet on official web outlets about the death of the dear leader..
The TV broadcast was pretty convincing though, no doubt several hundred thousand starving citizens will be rounded up to display public grief, sadly a lot of it will be genuine..  
Quote    Reply

Reactive       12/18/2011 11:24:19 PM
Thinking about it, given the last posts on the NK news sites are on the 14th might we reasonably assume this happened several days ago?
Quote    Reply

YelliChink       12/19/2011 1:18:34 AM

Thinking about it, given the last posts on the NK news sites are on the 14th might we reasonably assume this happened several days ago?

Good observation.
The military will clean the House of Kim and install themselves.
Probably will take them half year.
Nothing big will change.
Best result is DPRK gave up nukes and become PRC lite.
Worst case scenario is that PRC forces DPRK to keep the nukes in order to create tension.
Things will probably evolve in between. DPRK agrees to open its facility for regular checks, in exchange to lift some  sanctions.
No matter what happens, it will be a blow to Iranian nuke program, since it will be on the agenda for sure, and DPRK can give two rats anus to them.
Quote    Reply

cwDeici       12/19/2011 3:12:32 AM
Personally I think the best case scenario is NK collapse and the South is forced to intervene, but that's unlikely.
More likely is a mix between PRC-lite as you say and military dictatorship.
Quote    Reply

TrustButVerify    It bears watching.   12/19/2011 4:12:30 AM
If we proceed from the assumption that the simplest explanation is the most likely, it was probably a natural death as reported. In that case we should probably expect a few days of dithering and wheel-spinning while the NorK elite jockey for position and try to hold on to some power. If this was a coup, I expect to see new leadership emerge quickly, and to see Chinese peacekeepers arriving in short order to shore up the new regime. In either event I expect China to play a much-expanded role in the new order, whether it emerges soon or after months of chaos.
Meanwhile my heart goes out to my friends in the RoK, whose lives will be even more of a hassle than usual for the next few months.
Quote    Reply

Reactive       12/19/2011 7:02:04 AM
Fascinating what happens when people are compelled to break down in grief, not entirely convincing imho.... 
Quote    Reply

YelliChink       12/19/2011 3:36:02 PM

Fascinating what happens when people are compelled to break down in grief, not entirely convincing imho.... 


In that environment, if you show no remorse upon hearing the death of the great leader, then you will be sent into a forced labour camp in no time.
Quote    Reply

giblets       12/21/2011 2:44:00 PM
Looks like there will be a shared power at the top, certainly for the time being, however, with this 'sharing of power', it is possible that the could lead to some disagreements in the future.
Some intelligence agencies are stating that the official train was in the sidings when Kim Jong Il was said to be on it, and travelling round the country. 
Quote    Reply

smitty237    Poor RoK   12/21/2011 3:54:55 PM
The people I really feel sorry for in the whole equation is the Republic of Korea.  No matter how the whole scenario turns out in the North it will be bad for them.  In a sense they are like the lone living relative of the mean old hermit that lives in the really junky house in the crappy part of town.  They really don't have any relationship with the hermit, but they know that when the old bastard kicks off they are going to inherit the guy's crap and all the headaches that go along with it.  The "best case" scenario is that the North will just collapse and reunify with the South, a la East Germany after the Cold War.  It would be relatively bloodless, but terribly expensive and painful for the South.  Suddenly the Republic of Korea will inherit some 25 million impoverished, under skilled, undernourished, and brainwashed citizens that will need years of reeducation and assimilation.  Hundreds of thousands of South Korean "carpetbaggers" will have to move North just to assist with the process of assimilation.  We're talking everything from cops, to teachers, to engineers, to social workers, to everything in between. 
Of course a desperate, apocalyptic attack from the North would be the worst case scenario because you could see hundreds of thousands of casualties, and if the NorKs use nuclear weapons that number could easily rise into the millions.  Unfortunately for the South once the dust clears and the ashes settle the outcome will be the same as the above scenario, only this time it may also have to deal with a pro-Communist insurgency on top of everything else. 
 Last, but not least, of the bad scenarios is China moving in to take over the North.  In many ways this will be the best option for the South because it will transfer all the headaches to China, but there will be too much nationalistic pressure in the South to let this happen without a fight (mostly politically and diplomatically).  The South would simply be substituting one enemy on its border with another, stronger enemy. 
Talk about your no win situations.  
Quote    Reply