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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Reactive       5/20/2010 7:11:19 PM




Fine.  So what NorK platform shot the Cheonan torpedo?  Clearly it was neither strict surface, land nor airborne platform.  1.7k t displacement submarine, manned torpedo, semi-submersible ... supposition with support invited, true technical brilliance ever more welcome ;>)





v^2






fingers pointed @


NorK Recon General Bureau (has its own tri-service elements) incl mini subs.  Headed by Kim Kyok-sik

National Defence Commission (oversights the above)  Headed by O Kuk-ryol


How long will it be before "O" becomes a fall-guy...
 
 
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Hamilcar    Never.   5/20/2010 10:19:17 PM
H.
 
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Shawnc       5/21/2010 6:23:07 AM
Ah... it's good to see that good old fashion Commie Engrish rhetoric is still alive and well:
 
"In case the puppet group opts for 'counteraction' and 'retaliation' under the pretext of the sinking of the warship, the DPRK will strongly react to them with such merciless punishment as the total freeze of the inter-Korean relations, the complete abrogation of the north-South agreement on non-aggression and a total halt to the inter-Korean cooperation undertakings," read the statement, carried by Pyongyang's state media."

Soooo basically... "We're threatening to completely withdraw from that non-aggression agreement, even though you know that we never bothered to follow it in the first place..."
 
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warpig       5/21/2010 9:25:06 AM

Ah... it's good to see that good old fashion Commie Engrish rhetoric is still alive and well:

 

"In case the puppet group opts for 'counteraction' and 'retaliation' under the pretext of the sinking of the warship, the DPRK will strongly react to them with such merciless punishment as the total freeze of the inter-Korean relations, the complete abrogation of the north-South agreement on non-aggression and a total halt to the inter-Korean cooperation undertakings," read the statement, carried by Pyongyang's state media."





Soooo basically... "We're threatening to completely withdraw from that non-aggression agreement, even though you know that we never bothered to follow it in the first place..."



 
 
 
"...will strongly react to them with such merciless punishment as the total freeze of the inter-Korean relations, the complete abrogation of the north-South agreement on non-aggression and a total halt to the inter-Korean cooperation undertakings," read the statement, carried by....
 
Interesting, since all those measures--and more, much more--are exactly what the *South* should be doing right now in the first place.  Now if only the North were true to its word (likely a forlorn hope, as Shawnc points out), the net overall result of this act of war by the North could still approach what it ought to be.
 
And Hamilcar, thanks for the appreciation of my snarky commentary.  I work so hard at producing such mediocre product that it's nice to know that it might not be a totally wasted effort.  ;-)
 
 
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Hamilcar       5/21/2010 12:59:04 PM


"...will strongly react to them with such merciless punishment as the total freeze of the inter-Korean relations, the complete abrogation of the north-South agreement on non-aggression and a total halt to the inter-Korean cooperation undertakings," read the statement, carried by....

Interesting, since all those measures--and more, much more--are exactly what the *South* should be doing right now in the first place.  Now if only the North were true to its word (likely a forlorn hope, as Shawnc points out), the net overall result of this act of war by the North could still approach what it ought to be.

And Hamilcar, thanks for the appreciation of my snarky commentary.  I work so hard at producing such mediocre product that it's nice to know that it might not be a totally wasted effort.  ;-)

 I like sarcasm when it's wielded well.


 
I hope this clears up some of the second guessing and nay-saying from the peanut gallery that I had to wade 40 pages through.  I generally try to get it right based on evidence.
 
There was always a chance that the keelbreaker could have been a RoK weapon that accidentally launched and circled. Not much, since a Mk 46 tends to punch a hole in you hull as an AShW weapon when so used, but there was a small chance.  
 
H.
 
 
 
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jhpigott       5/24/2010 12:31:33 PM
Well, now that the S. Korean/international report is out and it definitively blames N. Korea, the obvious question is "What's next?"  President Lee is cutting off most trade with NK and is shutting down SK waters to NK vessels and may restart propoganda broadcasts over the border.  So, what's everybody think - Is this crisis going to be manageable or is it going to spin out of control?
 

Clinton: Koreas security situation 'precarious'

By MATTHEW LEE (AP)

BEIJING — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday that North Korea's sinking of a South Korean warship has created a "highly precarious" security situation in the region and that the Obama administration is working to prevent an escalation of tension that could lead to conflict.

Speaking to reporters in Beijing shortly after the White House issued a statement offering Washington's full and unequivocal support for Seoul, Clinton said all of North Korea's neighbors, including its chief ally China, understand the seriousness of the matter and want to "contain" it.

"We are working hard to avoid an escalation of belligerence and provocation," Clinton said. "This is a highly precarious situation that the North Koreans have caused in the region."

The U.S. will work with other nations to see that North Korea feels the consequences of its actions and changes its behavior to avoid "the kind of escalation that would be very regrettable," she said.

Clinton would not discuss the details of what the United States might do but noted that President Barack Obama had ordered U.S. military commanders to "to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression" from North Korea. The United States has 28,500 troops in South Korea.

(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...

 
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YelliChink       5/24/2010 1:09:48 PM
Kim Jong-mentally-il didn't get what he wanted from commies. Commies don't want no war, but they also know for certain that they can't control the international troll they've helped created. The worst case scenario would be gradual escalation of armed conflict that get both the US and China into it.
 
A sudden break out of an all-out war is impossible, since both the US and China try to calm the temper down. However, given the evidence and Korean national character, something has to be done about it. ROK government has settled on sanction ostensibly.
 
The trump card of Kim Jong-mentally-il is not to escalate the situation in his vacinity. Rather, he can really help Iranian theothugary to speed up their evil plan in exchange for needed food and hard cash. If he played his cards right, then he can wait until the collapse of international trade system (due to burst of currency bubble) for his next move.
 
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CFG    Why need China a buffer in Korean when NoK act so?   5/25/2010 4:43:47 PM
"currency bubble"? What's that?
Internal debt (budget deficit) and external debt (trade deficit) maybe, but don't think so. Why should someone wait for something that can't control or influence?
 
A war is, by all means, not wanted, by all. Seam to me that NoK is not in the position envisaged, which is good http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emwink.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0" alt="" />.
 
As pointed, interesting week and month ahead http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emsmile.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0" alt="" />
 
...

Maybe I jump ahead ... but ... is it only me that feel a Kansas shuffle developing?
Definitely jumping ahead ...
 
Peace, people.
 
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DarthAmerica    AS EXPECTED...   6/4/2010 10:26:24 PM
...NO CRISIS


US-South Korean Exercises May Be Postponed, But Planning Continues

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, right, and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young talk before their bilateral meeting during the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, 04 Jun 2010http://media.voanews.com/images/300*300/ap_us_defense_gates_rightskorean_Korean_kim_4jun10_eng_300.jpg" title="Defense Secretary Robert Gates, right, and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young talk before their bilateral meeting during the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, 04 Jun 2010" />
Photo: AP

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, right, and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young talk before their bilateral meeting during the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, 04 Jun 2010

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says planned military exercises with South Korea may be postponed until after the United Nations decides how to respond to the current crisis, but a Pentagon spokesman says planning for two naval exercises continues.

Secretary Gates told reporters in Singapore, where he is attending a regional security conference, that South Korea's request for U.N. action may cause a delay in the planned exercises.

"There is a sequencing involved in this," he said. "And it may be that there is a desire first to see what can be accomplished at the UN, and then think about next steps beyond that."

An international investigation concluded that North Korea sank a South Korean Navy ship in March, killing 46 sailors. North Korea disputes the finding.

As part of their response, the United States and South Korea announced they would conduct two joint naval exercises late this month or early next month. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman says preparations for those exercises are still in progress.

"The planning for those exercises continues," he said. "The exercises that we talked about doing, the (anti-)submarine exercise and the maritime partnership exercises are sometime down the road at this point anyway."

Some South Korean and U.S. officials said earlier this week that the exercises could begin as early as next Monday, but if that plan existed it has now been abandoned. U.S. officials have also strongly denied reports that there are plans for an aircraft carrier to be involved in the exercises.

Some experts and officials have expressed concern about provoking further attacks by nuclear-armed North Korea. At the Singapore conference Friday, the commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, Admiral Robert Willard, said recent harsh North Korean rhetoric about the planned exercises is normal, and his forces are ready for any contingency.

"Right now, we're not seeing indications that North Korea is intending a next provocation. But I think everyone in the region is watching North Korea very closely, given their unpredictability," said Willard.

South Korea's president said Friday if the international community tolerates what he called North Korea's military provocation, it will make the Korean Peninsula less stable. He called for strong international action to punish the North for sinking the ship and to convince its leaders to abandon their nuclear weapons program - something the international community has tried and failed to do over the past several years.
 
 
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Mikko       6/5/2010 2:08:53 PM
As the two Koreas were each saving face and heading for a conflict neither really wanted, few ships filled with Turkish peace folk sailed towards Gaza with known consequences.
 
Funny how this works. All you need to do is to come up with an even hotter global issue and that's it. No attention, no mandatory facesaving spiral, no crisis. 
 
Not that this is all there is to it, but damn what a convenient timing for the Koreas. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there's a conspiracy going on but seeing how this works, every self-respecting intelligence agency should have a small but highly media worthy crisis up their sleeve.

M
 
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