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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Hamilcar       5/11/2010 9:47:19 PM

There is no reason to believe that the PRC bandits cannot use another currency to function as they use the dollar. (Euro). 


And yet there are plenty of reasons why they will not.


Let's look at this.

- America has financial problems, but Europe's are even worse (Greece being the latest expression of that), making ?-bonds less attractive.


American exposure is $50 billion and  rising. What was Lehman Brothers exposure that ended in the September 28, 2008 cascade market attack that wiped out $4 trillion in  real wealth? What did we just suffer last Friday and what started that $1 reillion loss oin wealth? Hint: currency speculators sold short on the Euro. That would be the PRC bandits along with some of the other bastards of the MFA, including the Soros group at Quantum.  
 

- They have more capital bound up in US bonds than anyone else, and thus have a relatively high interest in not dumping and thus devaluing them.


JapanThey are using US as derivatives to leverage their own debt. Talk about a mutual suicide pact! Besides the PRC real estate market such as it is is about to tango uniform.
 

- Their trade surplus with America will evaporate. Indeed, America has pressured China (but not too loudly) for years now to let the Yuan rise for just this reason.


And what happens when their version of the subprime bubble pops? We OWN that debt one step removed as payees. 

That is because they have no free internal credit mechanism and consumption to soak up excess production. 1927 America in a nutshell repeated.  Wonder if their real estate base and agriculture is as messed up as our own was/is. (It is.)


This lack of economic strategic depth also makes it extremely unlikely they'll engage in overt economic warfare, especially not with a nation as economically resilient as the US.


Its also a firewall that prevents a ripple effect to the Chinese rural poor. We went down under a series of speculator engineered  hammer blows that started with the collapse of return on lending to our middle class. All of that capital had been bundled into unsecured real estate and commodities futures speculation (For another ponzi scheme like this insanity in real estate that locked up small business capital credit investment, look at CAP AND TRADE, where carbon credits will be traded as a commodity. When will WE learn?)

   

They have enough undervaluation to soak up the 10% difference. We can't afford the added 1 or 2 points of interest. Can't you see this? 


Higher interest on the debt would be more than offset by a resurgence exports across the board and in American manufacturing in particular. Both are paths to a more sustainable economy anyway. This is again why American policy has been for some time to "encourage" China to allow the Yuan to rise. It is in no one's interest for China to suffer an inflationary crash, either.


There are no exports if there is no production capacity or capability. When did you buy an American toaster or TV set last? We are a service economy not an industrial one.

No there isn't. Who has a slave labor command economy that can feed the debtor fix? Nobody.   


To borrow a phrase, There is no reason to believe that Americans can't absorb the added cost of cheap toasters from Maquiladores v

 
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gf0012-aust       5/11/2010 10:04:16 PM

For once, GF is wrong. KJI is INSANE. Note that word. You have to plan for crazy and do crazy things of your own to neutralize the escalation threat. 

I don't mind being wrong, but unsure what I'm wrong about. :)  I've never said that Kim wasn't crazy.
 
the man is a first class loon.
 
 
 
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Hamilcar       5/12/2010 4:21:02 AM

 

There is no reason to believe that the PRC bandits cannot use another currency to function as they use the dollar. (Euro). 

 

And yet there are plenty of reasons why they will not.


Let's look at this.

- America has financial problems, but Europe's are even worse (Greece being the latest expression of that), making ?-bonds less attractive.

 

American exposure is $50 billion and rising. What was Lehman Brothers exposure that ended in the September 28, 2008 cascade market attack that wiped out $4 trillion in  real wealth? What did we just suffer last Friday and what started that $1 reillion loss oin wealth? Hint: currency speculators sold short on the Euro. That would be the PRC bandits along with some of the other bastards of the MFA, including the Soros group at Quantum.  

 

- They have more capital bound up in US bonds than anyone else, and thus have a relatively high interest in not dumping and thus devaluing them.

 

JapanThey are using US as derivatives to leverage their own debt. Talk about a mutual suicide pact! Besides the PRC real estate market such as it is, is about to tango uniform.

 

- Their trade surplus with America will evaporate. Indeed, America has pressured China (but not too loudly) for years now to let the Yuan rise for just this reason.


And what happens when their version of the sub prime bubble pops? We OWN that debt one step removed as payees. 

That is because they have no free internal credit mechanism and consumption to soak up excess production. 1927 America in a nutshell repeated.  Wonder if their real estate base and agriculture is as messed up as our own was/is. (It is.)

 

This lack of economic strategic depth also makes it extremely unlikely they'll engage in overt economic warfare, especially not with a nation as economically resilient as the US.


Its also a Great Wall that prevents a ripple effect to the Chinese rural poor. We went down under a series of speculator engineered hammer blows that started with the collapse of return on lending to our middle class. All of that capital had been bundled into unsecured real estate and commodities futures speculation (For another ponzi scheme like this in

 
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CFG    How to deal with China?   5/12/2010 12:45:45 PM
China is part of the equation. How do you deal with China?
How do you bring China in the same boat with you?
Common ground? Which is common ground?
What kind of conditions lead to a common ground?
 
I don't have the answers ... at least I can ask the questions http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emsmile.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0" alt="" />
 
Cheonan is a serious incident, proving that the authors, who ever they are, are a problem ... if China doesn't want to help or think that is a small issue, then should somehow found that a line was cross, IMHO.
But its complicated, indeed.
 
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CFG    Nuclear fusion experiment. Good or bad move?   5/12/2010 5:51:13 PM
NoK announced a successfully carried out nuclear fusion experiment.
Maybe it was successfully, maybe not. Either way I think is a bad move from NoK. It's like a show off the potential that NoK have. But NoK is in a such a bad economical shape, it's need economic help from China and others in order to survive.
 
Are NoK going to develop a thermonuclear weapon?
 
Any way, NoK show to others that is possible to get a nuclear weapon. Maybe to threat with it after that. They were in NPT, withdrew from it in 2003 and go for nuclear ... Syria, Libya, Venezuela, maybe Iran, may do the same: acquire nuclear technology under NPT, withdrew from Treaty, go for nuclear weapon. That's a loophole in NPT. NoK use it and now, IMHO, as a suspect of Cheonan sinking, did a mistake with this announce. For sure, is not a predictable and stable country.
 
Is the announce helpful for China? Does it serve to China? Is in the (best) interest of China?
 
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VelocityVector    CFG   5/12/2010 6:21:39 PM

A country needs to master fission and rays before it can start on Teller Ulam let alone contained fusion.  There is no reason to believe the NorKs have acquired sufficient material or experience they could even be close to any sort of meaningful fusion.  The usual self-inflating rhetoric, methinks, else Kim "fused" some political opponents together with isotopes for experimental entertainment value.

v^2

 
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CFG    :)   5/12/2010 6:50:38 PM

A country needs to master fission and rays before it can start on Teller Ulam let alone contained fusion.  There is no reason to believe the NorKs have acquired sufficient material or experience they could even be close to any sort of meaningful fusion.  The usual self-inflating rhetoric, methinks, else Kim "fused" some political opponents together with isotopes for experimental entertainment value.


v^2


You are funny v^2.
How about China?
 
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VelocityVector    China   5/12/2010 8:21:26 PM

Good to learn that I contribute some value to the SP community ;>)  According to public reportage the PRC already possesses advanced teller ulam designs and supportive data to enable appreciation of how these operate.  Why would the PRC invest substantially in commercial fusion technologies when they can simply steal them from consortia of other nations and avoid the financial hit?  PRC supercomputer access is limited as well.  I frankly doubt the PRC will lead development and the NorKs have much less chance in this respect as in between slim and none and Slim is on vacation. 0.02

v^2

 
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CFG       5/12/2010 9:48:24 PM
Chance for NoK regime, in general, is heading toward none.
It remain to increase the number of refugee and that's it ... well, we'll see ...
 
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gf0012-aust       5/12/2010 10:26:37 PM

PRC supercomputer access is limited as well. 


thats true, but they have also taken a different path so as to try and short circuit and/or bypass that roadblock.
eg, they went to Linux as the preferred govt agency OS and have embraced the concurrent and distributed user model (eg the SETI model) to have a virtual super computing model.
 
add in the real concern about the security integrity of all those student nationals who are employed at literally hundreds of western universities (including the obvious Georgia Techs. MIT's, Purdues etc...) and you can see that they might not have the preferred model, but they do have a viable model in place.
 
 
 

 
 
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