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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Hamilcar       5/9/2010 8:24:16 PM

Before the next nerdfight erupts, making the rest of us wince and avert our eyes out of sheer embarrassment, let me say that reasonable people disagree as to who enjoys more leverage in the Sino-American currency vs. trade judo grab.


There is no reason to believe that the PRC bandits cannot use another currency to function as they use the dollar. (Euro).

The Chinese swap huge amounts of their Yuan for the Dollar in order to keep the Yuan priced artificially low against other currencies. This lowers the prices on their exports, which raises their trade surplus tremendously. Corrupt and backwards internally, they are fundamentally dependent on this external cash. For what happens to authoritarian regimes when the bottom falls out of their economy, see the USSR.
 
That is because they have no free internal credit mechanism and consumption to soak up excess production. 1927 America in a nutshell repeated.  Wonder if their real estate base and agriculture is as messed up as our own was/is. (It is.)
 

The dollars they purchase have to soak up some sort of asset, so the Chinese put them in Treasury securities. While it is true that if they were to stop purchasing or start selling these securities, it would put pressure on the interest rates of the vastly larger economy of their prime debtor, but it would also have a direct negative effect on the exports that they are so dependent on. The debtor with its massive economy and interest rates hovering near zero can absorb this punishment for much longer than the much weaker creditor can.


They have enough undervaluation to soak up the 10% difference. We can't afford the added 1 or 2 points of interest. Can't you see this? 


It's their trade policy that drives their currency policy. Their debtors are simultaneously their best customers. The kicker is that there are other plenty of other trading outposts in town where the local trillionaire can run up his tab. Put another way, imagine what would happen to Wal-Mart if it stopped accepting plastic and started raising its prices across the board inexorably. Customers would flock to myriad other stores, and Wal-Mart would lose, and lose big, in the end.


No there isn't. Who has a slave labor command economy that can feed the debtor fix? Nobody.  

Ultimately that's why it's the demand side, not the supply side of this global equation where the real leverage lies.


And you read the the money flow exactly backwards.

The Chinese have every incentive to keep things as stable and quiet as possible in their neck of the woods (Taiwan, North Korea). Whether it's tubes and refugees pointed at Seoul or the collapse of external trade pointed at Beijing, both actors have a vital interest in maintaining the status quo. The South Korean military has the continuing honor of bearing the greatest burden for its nation's interests: this is in fact how it should be, and why Cheonan will not be allowed to derail North Korea's slow motion collapse.

 
I fundamentally disagree. The PRC bandits are bandits. They are NOT capitalists. They are 19th century mercantilists (economic imperialists). Their preferred condition is economic chaos, not stability. They are currency speculators as well as resource and commodities aggressors and pillagers who show no long term investment strategy aside from a purely POLITICAL one to expand the power of their fascist corporationist totalitarian regime as a % of the international system. If it means that the total global wealth diminishes as the result of the chaos THEY generate, but their own proportion in that reduced pie increases as a ratio, then that is fine by them: its all about the power, and not the standard of living.
 
The Cheonan Incident could not happen without their ac
 
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DarthAmerica    No conclusive evidence yet for ?torpedo theory? in Cheonan sinking   5/9/2010 9:45:25 PM
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No conclusive evidence yet for ?torpedo theory? in Cheonan sinking
An official report by the military-civillian joint investigation team will be released on May 20
 
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gf0012-aust       5/9/2010 10:28:54 PM
No conclusive evidence yet for ?torpedo theory? in Cheonan sinking   
 
that is unmitigated rubbish.  we already know.  have a look at the number of factual errors in that govt response and you can see that its the equiv of a State Dept response.  ie It has the BlueHouse fingerprints all over it.
 
they won't find gunpowder because torpedoes (and mines) don't use gunpowder...
 
sheesh
 
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DarthAmerica       5/9/2010 11:21:04 PM

No conclusive evidence yet for ?torpedo theory? in Cheonan sinking   

 

that is unmitigated rubbish.  we already know.  have a look at the number of factual errors in that govt response and you can see that its the equiv of a State Dept response.  ie It has the BlueHouse fingerprints all over it.

 

they won't find gunpowder because torpedoes (and mines) don't use gunpowder...

 

sheesh

It's not rubbish. This isn't an issue of who/what sunk the ship. That's trivia. Although no one knows publicly the exact cause. PERIOD. While torpedo certainly seems to be the most likely cause, that is not confirmed and no one knows that in public. Anyone who claims to is either lying or breaking the law. The question is what is the South Korean Government going/willing to do about it. These statements do a lot to confirm the various analysis that say Seoul isn't going to go to war over Cheonan. 

-DA 
 
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gf0012-aust       5/9/2010 11:38:12 PM
read what I said - not what you think I said.
 
again, its unmitigated rubbish with a political driver - not a technical driver
 
anyone - and I mean anyone who has witnessed underwater demolitions, seen a SINKEX and/or a HULKEX knows the difference between a mine and a torpedo event.
 
there are 3 other countries who've been assisting, they are CDT experts.
 
the political comment is obvious
 
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warpig       5/9/2010 11:51:42 PM

read what I said - not what you think I said.

 

again, its unmitigated rubbish with a political driver - not a technical driver

 

anyone - and I mean anyone who has witnessed underwater demolitions, seen a SINKEX and/or a HULKEX knows the difference between a mine and a torpedo event.

 

there are 3 other countries who've been assisting, they are CDT experts.

 

the political comment is obvious




Both the conclusion that it was a torpedo and the conclusion that the South Koreans will not react militarily have been obvious since the day it happened.
 
 
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gf0012-aust       5/10/2010 12:06:56 AM


Both the conclusion that it was a torpedo and the conclusion that the South Koreans will not react militarily have been obvious since the day it happened.
 

and the BlueHouse commentary on gunpowder is amateurish at best.
this is seriously inept media management.
 
note I have avoided the Marx Bros type "who's on 1st" debate for a reason....

 
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Hamilcar    When you are trapped on first base politically.    5/10/2010 2:29:16 AM





Both the conclusion that it was a torpedo and the conclusion that the South Koreans will not react militarily have been obvious since the day it happened.


 




and the BlueHouse commentary on gunpowder is amateurish at best.


this is seriously inept media management.

note I have avoided the Marx Bros Abbott and Costello type "who's on 1st" debate for a reason....





Who is on first is politically very important.
 
 
We'll find out the pitcher's name: Tommorrow  
 

Prediction: U.N. Resolutions, Cheonan Sinking Won?t Change China?s Support for Kim Jong Il

Posted by Joshua Stanton on May 4, 2010 at 10:42 am · Filed under China & Korea

What will the Chinese ask Kim Jong Il during his visit?

South Korea?s president, Lee Myung-bak, was in China as well last week, meeting with Hu on Friday to solicit support if his country sought stronger U.N. sanctions in retaliation for the Cheonan attack.

?China wants to hear North Korea?s explanation so it can determine its position,'? said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

China has been taking a more active role recently in mediating North Korea?s many disputes with the international community. Beijing is thought likely to press Kim on returning to the stalled six-nation talks aimed at dismantling North Korea?s nuclear program. [L.A. Times, John M. Glionna and Barbara Demick]

I don?t doubt for a moment that Lee Myung Bak already has a very good idea of exactly what happened to the Cheonan, and that he has laid the case out before the Chinese in great detail. Nor do I doubt that his goal is to convince the Chinese to stay out of the way and not excuse North Korea from the consequences of what it has done.

This will require the ChiComs to leak some hints of how firmly they expressed their displeasure to some favored reporters and columnists. They may even direct its controlled press to print some ?shockingly? critical commentaries (mostly, but not entirely, in their English language editions). Myopic China-watchers who obsess about subtle shifts in the tone of such things will be dazzled. But so what? It?s not as if most of the people who read those commentaries can turn around and use that information to elect members of China?s parliament. Behind these cynical and stages displays, the flow of regime-sustaining aid to Kim Jong Il won?t change a bit.

The Joongang Ilbo posits that North Korea keeps fooling China. Nonsense. China isn?t fooled at all. On the contrary: China and North Korea keep fooling the United States and South Korea. It?s becoming increasingly naive to deny that the Chinese government sees itself as our enemy, and the fact of China?s support for North Korea in the face of provocations like the sinking of the Cheonan, repeated nuclear and missile tests, and even Chinese indulgence of North Korean proliferation speak much louder than China?s protestations of good faith. It?s just as naive that we fail to shape our own policies accordingly. I can only hope that America has bought as much influence in Beijing as Beijing has bought in Washington.

We don?t just have a North Korea prob
 
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gf0012-aust       5/10/2010 4:31:33 AM
I can't believe I stuffed up the Marx Bros and A&C!

btw, its not that I don't have a  political interest in this.  I actually have a pretty firm view on how NorK , China, SouK and Japan are playing their cards.

my primary focus in this thread is about the event itself.  Blind freddy and anyone who has ever been involved in underwater demolition, or seen the proper material on mines and torpedo impacts (and believe me, over $100m   worth of damage has been done by approx $10k worth of mines in the last 30 years, plus all the data that went into the Mk50/54/48ADCAP progs etc...) - and we and various allies have imaged that data to death - so we know the difference between the two kill types even though countries variants may have different effect triggers)

what we now have is the Blue House managing how they want to portray the event for whatever reason they deem necessary.  

Impact data can't be managed - no matter what political spin they seek to put on it. 

I have stayed out of who wants war, who doesn't want war debate because it's far more complicated than a binary analysis,

 
 
 
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Hamilcar       5/10/2010 6:37:26 AM

Associated Press

May 10, 3:20 AM EDT

South Korea confirms RDX found in ship wreckage

By SANGWON YOON
Associated Press Writer

South Korea confirms RDX found in ship wreckage

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea's defense minister confirmed Monday that traces of an explosive chemical substance used to make torpedoes were found in the wreckage of a naval ship that sank near the border with North Korea.

The 1,200-ton Cheonan went down in the Yellow Sea on March 26 after an explosion tore through the frigate. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued, but 46 were killed. Seoul has not directly blamed North Korea for the sinking, and Pyongyang has denied involvement. However, suspicion has focused on the North, given its history of provocations and attacks.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said earlier that an initial investigation indicated that a torpedo was likely to blame for the disaster. On Monday, he confirmed media reports that traces of a high explosive were found on the ship's wreckage.

"It's true that RDX, a chemical substance used in making torpedoes, has been detected," he told reporters. "The possibility of a torpedo (attack) has increased, but it's too early to say anything."

The explosive material was detected on the ship's smokestack and in samples of sand from the site, said joint investigation team spokesman Rear Adm. Moon Byung-ok.

"Mines use RDX as well as torpedoes so we need to investigate further to determine which was responsible," he said.

RDX, or research department explosive, is a powerful high explosive often mixed with other explosives such as TNT or TORPEX, and has been widely used since World War II by all countries for military and industrial purposes, Kim said.

The multinational investigation team is analyzing aluminum pieces salvaged from the wreckage to determine whether they are a part of the ship or a torpedo, Kim said.

"It is not easy to tie the debris to weapons like torpedoes because information on other countries' weapons systems is not readily available," he said.

Reports say investigation results are expected within weeks, but officials have said there is no deadline.

The two Koreas remain locked in a state of war because their three-year conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953.

North Korean artillery sank a South Korean ship in 1967, killing 39 sailors, and their navies have fought three more bloody skirmishes off the west coast since 1999.

Pyongyang also is suspected in a 1983 bombing in Burma that narrowly missed killing then-South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan but left 21 others dead, as well as for the 1987 bombing of a South Korean airliner that killed 115 people on board.

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There is something going on in RoK politics here, that I frankly don't understand. GF said it was complicated, and I think I understand that, at least the PRC bandit power monger and DPRK succession politics involved, as well as the fisheries war angle, but the RoK industrial oligarchy's internal politics has always baffled me.  Which faction is it here that leaks this? The PRC faction, the RoK nationalists, the Hyundai bloc, or the anti-Americans? Who are the ones speaking out of school here?
 
H.
       
 
 
 
 
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