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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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warpig       5/7/2010 8:46:26 PM
Regarding NorK comms, they've been digging in to their positions for over 50years now.  I suggest that pretty much every NorK military facility down to the lowliest gun emplacement will have land-line links through redundant networks, including shielded coaxial cable and optic fiber.  This is another reason why EMP wouldn't be too effective.  It would also be a reason why COMINT collection against them would be very difficult until the NorKs left their pre-war positions.
 
 
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DarthAmerica    @Nichevo   5/8/2010 3:47:36 AM

OK, attack plans, not sure I get this. 

 

Attack alliances?  That would be NK-China.  Sinking a Chinese boat with an NK torp in time of some crisis between the countries?  Maybe a Chinese spy ship watching the Norks (I assume this happens from time to time) happens to die?  Maybe a diplomat in Pyongyang happens to die?  I pose the question, let others say what would be useful irritant to that alliance.

 

We have a lot of tools to do that. Especially with China. We allow them to be a currency manipulator. It has had mutual economic benefits for the last two decades. That arrangement however is losing it's usefulness as China has become a major global economic power. Economically speaking, the time has come to level the playing field. China knows that. The problem for them is one of timing. How quickly we impose that leveling of the playing field is entirely up to the USA. How quickly we do that is directly proportional to the amount of pain it will cause them. We've already seen the admin apply pressure here to get Chinese cooperation on Iran. And that was just a small taste. We can make it much, much worse. I hope Greece demonstrated to all this week the absurdity of the suggestion that China can just dump dollars and go to euros. So, if necessary, we can bring to bear the kind of havoc we did on Japan's economy in the 1980's and 1990's. Something they still suffer from. Except in China the consequences would be a direct threat to their government. The have security concerns that are directly tied to how prosperous their economy is that the Japanese didn't have to deal with. But this is a card we won't play until absolutely necessary.

-DA 
 
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Hamilcar    There are ways to attack landlines.   5/8/2010 7:16:30 AM
At the nodes. Fiber optics are virtually invulnerable. The nodes, though, can be tumbled.
 
They, the nodes, cannot be attacked without igniting a war. Local standing orders would go into effect. Its what I would do.       
The only options are economic and legal. Seize assets and freeze accounts, get a war crime indictment.
=========================================
The use of a DM2A series torpedo is not indicated yet. Need evidence The blast aftermath characteristics just don't seem a good match to me, plus not every torpedo can be ejected from either a PRC or Russian tech base torpedo tube.

H.
 
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Hamilcar    Oh, one more thing.    5/8/2010 7:57:59 AM
Creditors set the monetary conditions, not the debtors.
 
Refer to Greece, as the current example. 

Anyone who claims otherwise does not know how the international currency exchange (banking) system has worked for the last 600 years.  
 
 
H.
 
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warpig       5/8/2010 11:36:19 AM

At the nodes. Fiber optics are virtually invulnerable. The nodes, though, can be tumbled.
 
They, the nodes, cannot be attacked without igniting a war. Local standing orders would go into effect. Its what I would do.       


Yes, every targeteer understands the need to hit critical nodes like repeaters and switching stations when trying to chop up a land-line network, although occasionally synergistic effects can come from hitting other choke-points, a well-known example being bridges where the enemy is co-operative enough to converge all their lines along them to cross the river.  I brought it up because Nichevo was adressing the possibility of disrupting C4I using EMP.  I suspect the NorKs, thanks to being perhaps the most dug-in military in the world, are less susceptible to that than many other threat nations.
 
 
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warpig       5/8/2010 1:04:29 PM

At the nodes. Fiber optics are virtually invulnerable. The nodes, though, can be tumbled.
 
They, the nodes, cannot be attacked without igniting a war. Local standing orders would go into effect. Its what I would do.       


Yes, every targeteer understands the need to hit critical nodes like repeaters and switching stations when trying to chop up a land-line network, although occasionally synergistic effects can come from hitting other choke-points, a well-known example being bridges where the enemy is co-operative enough to converge all their lines along them to cross the river.  I brought it up because Nichevo was adressing the possibility of disrupting C4I using EMP.  I suspect the NorKs, thanks to being perhaps the most dug-in military in the world, are less susceptible to that than many other threat nations.
 
 
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heavy       5/8/2010 2:38:07 PM

Before the next nerdfight erupts, making the rest of us wince and avert our eyes out of sheer embarrassment, let me say that reasonable people disagree as to who enjoys more leverage in the Sino-American currency vs. trade judo grab.


The Chinese swap huge amounts of their Yuan for the Dollar in order to keep the Yuan priced artificially low against other currencies. This lowers the prices on their exports, which raises their trade surplus tremendously. Corrupt and backwards internally, they are fundamentally dependent on this external cash. For what happens to authoritarian regimes when the bottom falls out of their economy, see the USSR.


The dollars they purchase have to soak up some sort of asset, so the Chinese put them in Treasury securities. While it is true that if they were to stop purchasing or start selling these securities, it would put pressure on the interest rates of the vastly larger economy of their prime debtor, but it would also have a direct negative effect on the exports that they are so dependent on. The debtor with its massive economy and interest rates hovering near zero can absorb this punishment for much longer than the much weaker creditor can.


It's their trade policy that drives their currency policy. Their debtors are simultaneously their best customers. The kicker is that there are other plenty of other trading outposts in town where the local trillionaire can run up his tab. Put another way, imagine what would happen to Wal-Mart if it stopped accepting plastic and started raising its prices across the board inexorably. Customers would flock to myriad other stores, and Wal-Mart would lose, and lose big, in the end.


Ultimately that's why it's the demand side, not the supply side of this global equation where the real leverage lies.


The Chinese have every incentive to keep things as stable and quiet as possible in their neck of the woods (Taiwan, North Korea). Whether it's tubes and refugees pointed at Seoul or the collapse of external trade pointed at Beijing, both actors have a vital interest in maintaining the status quo. The South Korean military has the continuing honor of bearing the greatest burden for its nation's interests: this is in fact how it should be, and why Cheonan will not be allowed to derail North Korea's slow motion collapse.


 
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CFG    Peace, people   5/8/2010 4:04:51 PM

...

Ultimately that's why it's the demand side, not the supply side of this global equation where the real leverage lies.



The Chinese have every incentive to keep things as stable and quiet as possible in their neck of the woods (Taiwan, North Korea). Whether it's tubes and refugees pointed at Seoul or the collapse of external trade pointed at Beijing, both actors have a vital interest in maintaining the status quo. The South Korean military has the continuing honor of bearing the greatest burden for its nation's interests: this is in fact how it should be, and why Cheonan will not be allowed to derail North Korea's slow motion collapse.



Who are the "both actors" in that? (just checking)
I have to say that IMO, in the equation, US have the leverage. And that leverage will increase a little, in future.  My understanding is that China was assured that for the time being that leverage will not be used ...

In IMHO EU is in birth pain, and that pain and birth will take a while, 5 or more years. Countries in eurozone renounced at monetary leverage and the fiscal/budget one is not that synchronized yet ... plus the institutions, bureaucracy ... But will be lesson to be learn from EU and EU's birth for all regions of the world.
 
Yes, I think too that US and China will maintain the status.
Military are well intended, they were trained in warfare, expect to do that and to respond to an attack, if it was NoK. In the same time it's like an inertia, military want to do what they were prepare ... We see that inertia in a lot of human systems and we have to learn not to follow but to be above it. Military have to look at a larger picture.
For instance, now that NoK draw attention on them, it seam to me that Cheonan start to be a bad move for NoK. President of SoK and the chairmen of Grand National Party pointed at China, the advantage of initiative is slipping from NoK, China seam to dislike what her ally do.
SoK is an open society and military will go with the county and political leadership, no need to act violent as NoK regime is indeed going downward.

 
As for attack the plans and alliances, this is a public place ... NoK's plans are kept close, US and SoK's should, too. ...
We can image attacks on Chinese vessel in order to alienate China, but that go well in a movie ...
I see two or three directions in KRF plans: getting more "help"/money, transfer of power, conservation of the regime.
Don't have much ideas on what to do but definitely not military ...
 
 
Btw, does anybody think of NoK having bicycle use for comm? Motor one need gasoline ... Japanese used human as bridge in 1942 ... Low level tech can be effective.
 
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DarthAmerica    @Heavy   5/8/2010 9:39:56 PM
Outstanding summary. The Sino-American economic relationship is not the same as it would be for an individual and a bank where the bank would have plenty of alternatives to do business with and the power to take action against the debtor due to default.


-DA 
 
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earlm    Demand vs Supply   5/9/2010 12:43:28 AM
Ask why the oil producers don't raise the price to 150 a barrel.  It's not because of the effects on currency, lower demand, the economy will collapse or any convoluted explanation.  The demand side has the power thanks to globalization.  Look at shale gas and even rare earths.  Companies are now looking at mining rare earths in the US after the rise in prices.  Even with money we are looking at an aging world with more savers who need to invest and fewer young people who need to borrow.
 
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