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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Hamilcar    I always said he couldn't read a map.    5/1/2010 3:09:56 PM
Reactive, I highlighted where I think your analysis is flawed. Most Iranians are are not in Tehran.  In fact places like Tehran skew western media analysis because those are areas where people have access to Twitter and other modern means of communication. People don't protest people they like. Also, in the largely rural areas where the majority of Iranians are, the Iranian President is extremely popular. It would be like saying that President Bush wasn't popular because you did a poll in San Francisco or Los Angeles.

-DA

He needs to learn to read a map.http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/82/72782-004-0D1724AD.gif" height="501" width="521" /> 
 
 

Iran - Population
Nationality : Iranian
Main language(s) : Farsi (40%), Turkish (22%), Kurdish (5%)
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/rank/obj/rank.gif" alt="Compare population of all countries of the World" border="0" height="12" width="34" />
2002
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/rank/obj/rank.gif" alt="Compare population of all countries of the World" border="0" height="12" width="34" />
2005
Population (2005) : 67 622 000 people
2002
2005
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/rank/obj/rank.gif" alt="Compare population density of all countries of the World (2002)" border="0" height="12" width="34" />
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/rank/obj/rank.gif" alt="Compare population density of all countries of the World (2005)" border="0" height="12" width="34" />

http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/images/man.gif" alt="" />
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/images/man.gif" alt="" />
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/images/man.gif" alt="" />
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/images/man.gif" alt="" />
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/images/man.gif" alt="" />

Density : 41 people / Km2
http://www.studentsoftheworld.info/infopays/rank/obj/rank.gif" alt="Compare fertility rates of a
 
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DarthAmerica       5/2/2010 8:33:59 PM
What many people, especially the most opinionated, who have never been to places like Iran and the ME don't know is that Tehran and images from Tehran do not accurately portray the standard of living or sentiment for the majority of Iranians. They simply get more media coverage as a result of their proximity to modern means of communication. This also skews opinions towards more westernized segments of the population. When you get out into the countryside and travel through the villages, the opinion of people is much more in favor of the Iranian President. These are the kinds of things you can't easily discern from MSM or "google". You have to be familiar with the human terrain and the best place to do that is on the ground. This is why western people are so often caught off guard. It's not about being able to read a map. It's knowing which map to read. Hamilcar you are making the same error the media does. You listed the populations of Iran's major cities. Out of over 65 million Iranians it is not representative of Iranian political leanings which are clearly in support of the regime. The right map. The one that mattered last year...

2005-iran-presidential.gif

http://images.nationmaster.com/images/motw/middle_east_and_asia/iran_pol_1986.jpg" width="500" height="500" alt="" /> 

 
If you take a look at the politics of Iran, you can see that the urban areas alone don't reflect the true politics. These are the areas the reporters are in and it's why we get a distorted view. This is why it's important to work with and talk to people who know the culture and politics. I suspect that things are the same in North Korea.

Now, of course, I've never been to North Korea. But I've spent a lot of time in South Korea and I deal with ethnic Koreans almost everyday. I can tell you that the view of North Korea and it's leader from the point of view of your average South Korean isn't like what we are used to hearing about in our media. I can't stress the human terrain aspect enough.

-DA 
 
 
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Hamilcar    Ypou've never been in country.....   5/2/2010 10:59:26 PM
so don't pretend you know first hand, Gixxer. You don't. You were caught in an error, and nothing you say changes that.
 
H.,
 
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earlm    Iranian Election   5/2/2010 11:11:24 PM
The Western media coverage was pure idiocy.
 
1.  Mousavi is not a good guy, he was involved in the Beirut barracks bombing.
2.  The majority of Iranians did not support Mousavi and there were big differences by class.  Just look at the protestors, most of the guys were obviously white collar or metrosexuals.
 
I think Iran is a different case than NorK because the NorKs are so propagandized that any info influx could crack the regime.  A carefully crafted campaign to split the security forces from the KFR is, IMO the best option to pressure the KFR.  The crux of the campaign should be an offer of amnesty for those who help overthrow the KFR or stand aside.  Anyone involved with WMD or artillery against Seoul dies.
 
 
 
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DarthAmerica       5/3/2010 12:28:09 AM

The Western media coverage was pure idiocy.

1.  Mousavi is not a good guy, he was involved in the Beirut barracks bombing.

2.  The majority of Iranians did not support Mousavi and there were big differences by class.  Just look at the protestors, most of the guys were obviously white collar or metrosexuals.

I think Iran is a different case than NorK because the NorKs are so propagandized that any info influx could crack the regime.  A carefully crafted campaign to split the security forces from the KFR is, IMO the best option to pressure the KFR.  The crux of the campaign should be an offer of amnesty for those who help overthrow the KFR or stand aside.  Anyone involved with WMD or artillery against Seoul dies.

 
Yeah I'd have to agree with you that there are some serious differences between the cultures and some of the methods used by the respective governments. I'd say by far the NorKs are the more oppressive of the two. Going after the Security Forces would be very helpful except that it's easier said than done. There are a lot of people within the Security Forces who benefit and have an interest in keeping the status quo. In any Coup or sudden change of NorK Gov would need to have our Intel and Diplomatic services working in careful concert with the NorK. Practically speaking though it seems that there are way too many variables to control and things could go very wildly out of control. It's for these reasons that the South Koreans and Chinese have very little interest in supporting any kind of action that would put their fragile economies at risk. What we are looking at here is a geopolitical stalemate and the best course may just be to continue and tighten the siege until such time that more favorable multilateral options are available. And that may take a long time more if it ever comes. One need only look at Cuba to understand that. Patience.

Attacking North Korean over Cheonan(assuming they did it) would probably be a serious mistake IMHO. To quote Sun Tzu:

Generally in warfare, keeping a nation intact is best, destroying a nation second best;

keeping an army intact is best, destroying an army second best;

keeping a battalion intact is best, destroying a battalion second best;

keeping a company intact is best, destroying a company second best;

keeping a squad intact is best, destroying a squad second best. 

Therefore, to gain a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence;

to subjugate the enemy's army without doing battle is the highest of excellence.

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CFG    Why not to gain more?   5/3/2010 2:15:02 AM

so don't pretend you know first hand, Gixxer. You don't. You were caught in an error, and nothing you say changes that.

H.,



I cross some time a go on the following rules. I think are good rules because it make those that follow gain more from a debate, polemic ...
 
Established by the University of Oxford in 1890 :

"In any scientific controversy, social or political, the discussion should resume the exchange of ideas and only those ideas that have quota problem.

Parties to the controversy as an argument or use scientific theories or facts of reality that are relevant to the issues discussed.

Parties are not entitled to raise the character, temperament and past opponent, because they do not rule out nor confirm the validity of the ideas they support.

Parties are not entitled to question the conceptual reasons for the attitude of the opponent, as the discussion turns away from the problem itself.

Labeling opponent by stating the school of thought, social class, professional organization or political party to which it belongs is a violation of the rules polemics reveal weakness of lack of arguments.

In a controversial matter only civilized arguments of opponent that person and not as a member of a school or organization. You were not wrong because you're materialistic thinker, employer or Labor, but only if your arguments are convincing or not."
 
 
One can feel good for different reason, but after that feeling go what it's remain. What ever the reason one refer to o person instead of idea, I think ignoring it the best way.
 
I want to gain something for my brain, reading and writing ... I don't want to be right in what I'm writing, just show me I'm wrong, with arguments. Thank you.
 
CFG
 
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CFG    Well, to be on thread ...   5/3/2010 3:16:20 AM

IMHO it's a South Korean and Chinese problem ultimately....
...
 
-DA 
I have to agree to that. South Korea must decide more on issues that are close to Korea, ask for help and don't let some things to aggravate.
The mistake done with currency reform is not over and the regime need to divert from that issue. In this respect, I think the move on Cheonan is a good one. It try to bring a new, eventually bigger, problem in front of NoK people. The political and economical isolation is the response, that should continue, IMHO.

As for the chessboard ... (btw, Hamilcar I play baduk since couple of year now, I'm about 9 kyu ... don't know much of that game ... just started to play by Hahn pointing system, a Korean one ;)) - that should increase aggressivity, wich bring me to ) ... to wait or do little :
 
"What we are looking at here is a geopolitical stalemate and the best course may just be to continue and tighten the siege until such time that more favorable multilateral options are available."
 
 
I'm in favor of "siege" and against aggression, in favor of aggressive and against to wait. Isolation, economical and political, seam to work. But what if KRF get help from Russia? I'm not aware of a deal between China and Russia concerning NoK, but Russians are know to respect a deal when it suite them.
 
About the rice and post from 
and
 
Hamilcar, you said:
"
Poeple have to eat. Can't buy food (no money), you starve. No food to buy?  Starve. No incentive to farm (profits from food sales because the money is no good.), no food. Riots.
 
Riots? Civil war. Regime change."

Can you say how the details of whole rice chain lead to that? Riots, civil war ...
I mean, some percentage of the rice (produced or imported) say 60%-90% are sold through shops at say 25 won and some (let say) 1%-5% are sold through market like one mentioned in that post. I mean, salaries in NoK are set by state and are not a problem to be paid by state. What's the mechanism there that grip and lead to famine? Not that I need to know, because my point is about details and about what real happen there, as oppose to generality or lack of detail of the mechanism in some media post. Not to mention a segment of the public that doesn't really know the details and the mechanism of socialism and communism ... I not hearing of any visit, as tourists, in those country (NoK, Cuba) and dialogs with people there. I'm in favour of press and do that, btw ... not that is possible thou ...
 
There been famine so far in NoK (or other communist state) before and they didn't collapse by it self. Cuba is a good example, regime is still on.
 
Of course, it's better to deal with problems one at time. Irak, Iran, Afganistan and ME are hot now, but the clock is ticking and the oil is above $80. $80 and volume mean money from oil and gas flow and plans (to build) can be accomplished before 2017-2020 ... ... When it come about NoK I'm looking and thinking mainly at SoK, to ask and do. China can help too :)
 
 
About media, Iran, nationalism a little later ... time is short ...
 
Peace.
 
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Hamilcar    Claoms ypo knowledge.    5/3/2010 7:40:19 AM




so don't pretend you know first hand, Gixxer. You don't. You were caught in an error, and nothing you say changes that.




H.,









I cross some time a go on the following rules. I think are good rules because it make those that follow gain more from a debate, polemic ...

 

Established by the University of Oxford in 1890 :



"In any scientific controversy, social or political, the discussion should resume the exchange of ideas and only those ideas that have quota problem.

1. The ideas mist be supported by real data.

Parties to the controversy as an argument or use scientific theories or facts of reality that are relevant to the issues discussed.

2. Repeat (1.)

Parties are not entitled to raise the character, temperament and past opponent, because they do not rule out nor confirm the validity of the ideas they support.

3. When  the person declares that he has personal knowledge and then presents false data, or no data, then HIS credibility is an immediate issue.  

Parties are not entitled to question the conceptual reasons for the attitude of the opponent, as the discussion turns away from the problem itself.

4. The character of the argument depends on the character of the one who argues. Dishonest evidence presented ='s dishonest arguer. That is not evidence subject to interpretation, it is evidence that is false and claimed that is true. When the evidence is sourced to be false then the arguer's claims to objectivity are instantly subject to question as to competency and bias.    


Labeling opponent by stating the school of thought, social class, professional organization or political party to which it belongs is a violation of the rules polemics reveal weakness of lack of arguments.

5. (4) repeated.

In a controversial matter only civilized arguments of opponent that person and not as a member of a school or organization. You were not wrong because you're materialistic thinker, employer or Labor, but only if your arguments are convincing or not."

5. (4) Repeated.
 
One can feel good for different reason, but after that feeling go what it's remain. What ever the reason one refer to o person instead of idea, I think ignoring it the best way.

6. One is not allowed to falsely represent data and form opinion based on it.
 
 
I want to gain something for my brain, reading and writing ... I don't want to be right in what I'm writing, just show me I'm wrong, with arguments. Thank you.

7. (6) Repeated.

 

CFG


8. One must also not libel.
 
H.
 
 
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warpig       5/3/2010 7:58:22 AM

so don't pretend you know first hand, Gixxer. You don't. You were caught in an error, and nothing you say changes that.



I must have missed the catch.  What was his error?  Due to your poor communication habits, it appears that you are trying to say that what is in error is his statement that most Iranians do not live in Tehran.  If so, then you clearly are in error:
 
Iranian population in Tehran = 6.85million
Iranian population not in Tehran = (67.622million - 6.85million) = 60.772million
 
6.85million << 60.772million
 
Q.E.D.
 
Hamilcar, I wonder if you realize or care that your *incessant* *unrelenting* automatic knee-jerk reaction to try to attack and disprove everything you possibly can about anything DA ever says makes me naturally suspect everything *you* say, as I can no longer trust that you are only using reasoned argument yourself.  I certainly must believe that I am definitely not alone in this, although there obviously have been other posters over the years who have expressed strong support of you in your one-man offensive against DA.
 
 
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warpig       5/3/2010 8:06:53 AM

Attacking North Korean over Cheonan(assuming they did it) would probably be a serious mistake IMHO. To quote Sun Tzu:



Therefore, to gain a hundred victories in a hundred battles is not the highest excellence;

to subjugate the enemy's army without doing battle is the highest of excellence.


Therefore, the best warfare strategy is to attack the enemy's plans, next is to attack alliances, next is to attack the army, and the worst is to attack a walled city. 


Therefore, one who is skilled in warfare principles subdues the enemy without doing battle, takes the enemy's walled city without attacking, and overthrows the enemy quickly, without protracted warfare. 

I think there are better longer term more subtle ways to deal with this.


 
Mehhh... sometimes it works out just fine to settle for the less elegent solution.  Besides, more of the same (more long term/subtle ways) is just adding many more years onto what is already one of the most protracted sieges/wars in history.
 
 
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