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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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CFG    @Hamilcar & all   4/30/2010 1:30:54 AM
Please be so kind and start a new thread with the Obama issue. I preferred McKain, but it was impossible to win ... now with a socialist ... please ignore previous phrase and start a new thread ... I think this forum has some rules ...
 
Let's have this thread about Cheonan, please.
 
Thanks,
CFG
 
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Hamilcar    Obama is part of the geopolitical problem that us the Cheonan Incident.    4/30/2010 3:38:31 AM
So is the bandit, Hu Jintao. They cannot be ignored in this, as they are the men behind the curtains.
 
H. 
 
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CFG    The big question is ...   4/30/2010 6:52:15 AM
I think that what can be done is split in two: with China and without China.
 
'Propaganda', as in news and analysis is always need it. Even if is not effective: balloon does not spread much, radio - I understood that people must keep device running all time on official broadcast.
 
As Darth said, if people support the regime, one must know why. Maybe nationalism is in favor of communism, and that is a strong bond. How you brake that bond?
 
The secret police, IMHO, is the least to alienate or separate from KFR (Kim Family Regime). If it is achievable then should be tried. IMHO, the Party is weakest, then the Military, then Secret Police.
 
Sometime is easy to confuse collapse country with just a low level one. A low level situation or status is a STABLE one, more stable then an elevate one. That country can't do much  (being poor) but that doesn't mean regime will change. If people die from hunger that doesn't mean it is collapsing. Example: Ukraine in '30, big famine, but regime survived. In NoK case, there are labor camps and refugees, those are escape for the regime. Internal enemy and external enemy are to blame, right?
 
 It is difficult to send back the refugees, they end up, I think, in labor camps. Maybe if more and more become refugees the chance to alienate remaining people from KFR are higher.
 
I am against physical elimination, and not because it can backfire, people getting around the KFR. But that bring the idea to convince Kim that he or his son will be eliminated. Just to convince. And the result to be mistakes from his part. Once Kim start make mistake will alienate China. So far he is of sound mind and is difficult to convince China that he can't be controlled. A threat at his life or son may change his judgment, it's a human after all. But, it can backfire!
 
I think Kim will continue, in the years to come, provocations like Cheonan, the limit being "to be predictable". Once he pass that one, China ... again China.
 
If NoK will get money for reconstruction, without any conditions, NoK people will support Kim, because the current status is very low. Even reduced by corruption, reconstruction is a strong ally for Kim. The people of NoK doesn't deserve that regime, but conditions must be set for Kim in order to get money.
 
 
Read all the above as thinks that require the help from China. Without China, IMO, it's difficult to divide KFR from ...

 
I got two think to be done without China. One, as I already wrote, is to switch to 100% professional military in SoK. That doesn't mean conscript will cease ...
Second is a little unusual. Try to take or at least reduce "Seoul town" in equation. This days more and more gov services are going on-line. It doesn't matter where servers are. In some country Government meeting are held, from time to time, in different towns then capital. Even are held in a neighboring country (once a year) same time and place both country, if the relations are friendly and close. SoK can show this way that is decided about NoK and want to solve this issue in this decade. Little by little, capital may move out of Seoul. Of course, emotions are high with respect to capital city ... I don't know Korean history - were can be moved, temporary, capital from Seoul. Temporary, OK? SoK politician can find motive and ways to do that. It's their job.
 
China. There is an old say that go something like this: "the one that you don't let him die, will not let you live." If China doesn't let NoK regime die, may end up with difficulties from that regime. Maybe that's the way to bring China along.
Bring China in the same boat is the most difficult ...
 
 ...
 
Well, what I tried above to say was: basic, at strategic level use "divide and impera" AND bring China to help.
At political level there are goals to achieve, on the great board. Once you figure out that, China included, strategy should be  easier to develop. Operational and tactical level will follow ...
 
What's the big question? How to bring China along or to set the political, long time period, goals? http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emwink.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0" alt="" />

Peace.
 
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DarthAmerica    @CFG   4/30/2010 10:35:39 AM
IMHO it's a South Korean and Chinese problem ultimately. It's China that North Korea depends on as benefactor and prosperous South Korea that would have to absorb the impoverished North in the aftermath. Right now and for some time the USA has China in a bind with regard to it's export economy and currency. That's a lever the administration is already beginning to apply pressure on. If/When they break, is South Korea prepared to properly manage it? Will North Korea fold? These are unknowable questions.

-DA 
 
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Hamilcar       4/30/2010 11:24:58 AM

I think that what can be done is split in two: with China and without China.

DPRK cannot be separated from the PRC bandits. (Note the term, "PRC bandits", 
as the ruling elite is not the same today as the Chinese civil service [which is the operant government] or the Chinese people who these criminals sit atop as the modern Mandarin fascist class.)

'Propaganda', as in news and analysis is always need it. Even if is not effective: balloon does not spread much, radio - I understood that people must keep device running all time on official broadcast.

 NEWS works to show the people something else is out there. Bot that they can do anything about it. 
 
As Darth said, if people support the regime, one must know why. Maybe nationalism is in favor of communism, and that is a strong bond. How you brake that bond?

Wrong assessment. The gangsters have the guns in a totalitarian regime. The cult of personality (caudilloism) raises a palace guard to wield such guns. China, Iran or DPRK, Sudan, or even the Palestinian Authority or Saudi Arabia, same fundamental characteristics seen, same solution. Destroy the bandit class
 
The secret police, IMHO, is the least to alienate or separate from KFR (Kim Family Regime). If it is achievable then should be tried. IMHO, the Party is weakest, then the Military, then Secret Police.

Romania. Revolution. 

Sometime is easy to confuse collapse country with just a low level one. A low level situation or status is a STABLE one, more stable then an elevate one. That country can't do much  (being poor) but that doesn't mean regime will change. If people die from hunger that doesn't mean it is collapsing. Example: Ukraine in '30, big famine, but regime survived. In NoK case, there are labor camps and refugees, those are escape for the regime. Internal enemy and external enemy are to blame, right?

That's the lie the bandit regime uses. now SIEGE is ugly, but we know that it works. We use that strategy now.
 
 It is difficult to send back the refugees, they end up, I think, in labor camps. Maybe if more and more become refugees the chance to alienate remaining people from KFR are higher.

That is the PRC bandit side of the equation. They are the rulers of the Chinese state and the DPRK citizen escape route. if the North Koreans could vote with their feet they would head for China.  The PRC bandits have their own reasons to fear the refugee flood. As Kim is, so they are. They don't need living proof of just what and how a bandit regime falls to spread to the Chinese people or THEY would be next.
 
I am against physical elimination, and not because it can backfire, people getting around the KFR. But that bring the idea to convince Kim that he or his son will be eliminated. Just to convince. And the result to be mistakes from his part. Once Kim start make mistake will alienate China. So far he is of sound mind and is difficult to convince China that he can't be controlled. A threat at his life or son may change his judgment, it's a human after all. But, it can backfire!

No. His death, while desirable, is not easy or safe to achieve. It would result in the wrong kind of chaos. We want the chaos to exploit for US, not for the PRC bandits. 

 
I think Kim will continue, in the years to come, provocations like Cheonan, the limit being "to be predictable". Once he pass that one, China ... again China.

Agreed. He WILL escalate and they will allow. 

If NoK will get money for reconstruction, without any conditions, NoK people will support Kim, because the current status is very low. Even reduced by corruption, reconstruction is a strong ally for Kim. The people of NoK doesn't deserve that regime, but conditions must be set for Kim in order to get money.

Hence
 
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DarthAmerica    @CFG   4/30/2010 4:17:35 PM

CFG,

Allow me to expand on this a bit. I want to dispell the notion that people who live in places like Iran, North Korean or China are this homogeneous group of people who feel oppressed and are just wainting on a chance to overthrow their government or be liberated. Yes, there are sub groups and elements within these governments that feel this way, but they aren't as wide spread as some people think. Even within the US polulation there are people who feel oppressed. I'm going to share an article and offer a little back ground. When I was in the Middle East,I had a chance to visit several countries we would consider very strict and oppressive. I did not get the impression that the people hated their leaders or felt as if they needed liberation. This includes significant numbers of Iraqis as well. What I found out is that a lot of people in nations like this are very nationalistic and loyal to their leaders. They know things are tough, but they expect that. Let me share an article with you and get your feedback...

 

Western Media Misread Iran Elections

New America Media, News Analysis, Videohttp://media.newamericamedia.org/images/basics/video.gif" />, Jalal Ghazi, Posted: Jun 17, 2009 Review it on NewsTrusthttp://newstrust.net/images/ntbuttons/newstrust_review_link.gif">

Reports on the Iranian elections by Western media have been misleading.

They portray the election battle as a struggle between conservative Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and moderate Mir Hussein Moussavi. The election battle, however, is actually a struggle over power and money, not democracy.

Ahmadinejad is cast as unpopular, and most coverage presumes that he stole the elections from Moussavi. Many Western journalists compare Moussavi with Pres. Barack Obama and broadcast news show frequent images of bloody demonstrations as evidence that Iranians like Moussavi because he represents change. The truth, however, is completely the opposite.

Western media have failed to answer the question: Why did the majority of Iranians vote for Ahmadinejad? The answer is simple: because he, not Moussavi, is their Obama. This may be difficult for a westerner to understand. Yes, Ahmadinejad has been accused of wanting to wipe Israel off the map and developing a nuclear weapon and quoted denying the Holocaust. However, from the perspective of ordinary Iranians who voted for him, these things are not important. What is important is the fact that he is the only president who has been courageous enough to stand up to ?millionaire mullahs? headed by Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the main supporter of Moussavi.

After the establishment of the Islamic republic in 1979, the country?s wealth was transformed into charity organizations headed by mullahs. Since then, these organizations, which are not audited, have become corrupt. There is also widespread corruption among the mullahs who exploit their power to accumulate wealth.

During his first term in office, Ahamdinejad clashed with these millionaire mullahs when he launched a campaign to rid Iran of corruption. His goal is to scrutinize the charity organizations, which means that they would be subjected to auditing. This has made these mullahs very nervous.

Political analyst Mehadad Khonry told Al Jazeera English that Rafsanjani, Moussavi's chief supporter, is now in Qum, Iran. He is there to rally the support of certain leading ayotallahs and to make sure that his position will be secure in the post-election era.

During the televised debates between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi, the president singled out Rafsanjani and asked, ?What are his [Rafsanjani?s] sons doing in the country? Name one of my ministers who has become a billionaire during their tenure, or received properties?? The Rafsanjani family is known to have used its powerful position to amass huge wealth like many other mullahs.

Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, is well known for his humble family background. This was pointed out by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called on Iran to vote for the candidate whose life is not corrupt.

Ahmadinejad is the son of a blacksmith from South Tehran. This is extremely important for Iranians who resent the widening gap between the haves and have nots. According to Al Jazeera English, this gap has increased during the past decades and is visible in
 
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Reactive       4/30/2010 7:27:17 PM
But despite what you have said Darth, the reality is that when all state media is controlled by one source (those in power) the opinions of the populace can be directed at will.
 
I have yet to meet an Iranian who is not ashamed of the situation there, I have known plenty who worked before the revolution and have given me an insight into what actually happened with regards to popular control. The powerbase of nations like Iran relies on the rural communities that have no access to information other than that which they are presented with. 
 
Democracy only works if there is freedom of information, and the right to express such information, whilst I have reservations about the recent "election" in Iran, yes, there is a substantive portion of the country that votes "with" the regime, this is because there are reprecussions. Imagine how the US would be if the only source of news was Fox, this is the problem.
 
In terms of the majority of residents in Tehran, there is overwhelming fear and hatred of the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad, the problem is that a) the "legitimacy" of the election has been largely authenticated based on a previous and flawed poll by the BBC on voting intention, b) many people are only exposed to state propoganda, and thus express nationalist intentions when told that the outside world is effectively looking to destroy their culture and beliefs. It is a conservative culture, but also one that is home to both a glorious historical legacy of innovation and progress and an educated elite who have their own support and opinions, the reason I feel optimistic about Iran is because they do not have the strength to assasinate people like Moussavi, they know that their control over the majority also carries a burden of popular opinion that can only be stretched so far, in any case, the Iranian populace (at least in urban areas) has FAR more awareness of the outside world than one might suspect, Iranians are waiting patiently for their chance to get rid of the "islamic revolution" in truth, in terms of those who really control the profitable areas of Iranian industry and commerce, there are few conservatives. I had a fascinating discussion with someone whose family were very influential in Iran, his opinions on the reasons for the current downfall were largely based on the insertion of "clerics" into areas of public life for which they had no education, training, knowledge, or understanding, the vast majority of intelligent Iranians know exactly what is happening, but there are consequences for disobedience which lead people to support the ruling party until it is weak enough to be overthrown by public revolt, it's an information war, and depends on the capacity of the state to balance the benefits of the internet against the inevitable failure to control access to information..
 
What you are right about, is whether for right or wrong, it is natural to expect a significant proportion (perhaps even a large majority) of NK citizens to support their rulers, this is the same in China, if you control the only sources of information you will do well in the polls, this is natural human instinct, we tend to support "alpha rule". This is unfortunately a result of us being apes, perhaps if we had evolved from a less gregarious and Alpha-male driven species we might think differently. 
 
What this does mean is that just as in Nazi Germany, there will be fierce resistance bourne from traditional right-wing ideology (despite it being a stalinist nation), there is also an element of natural selection in process, over a long enough timespan, those who are opposed to dictatorial rule are gradually weaned out of society (and we know how that's done) leaving a largely obedient society who will only become aware of the actuality of the situation once there is true access to information.
 
I have an optimistic belief that populations are largely able to judge these things for themselves once there is the ability for them to do so, the reason the Kims have denied access to anything but the constant eulogies to their rule is self-preservation, they fear an educated elite just as the Iranian elite does, the difference being that the NK regime has been more paranoid, and has therefore viewed economic progress as a secondary objective to control and internal security, result, no internet, no foreign news/tv, we might expect the citizenry to initially react with hostility, but it will be short lived, and in less time than might be imagined, the prevailing view will switch from obedience to hatred of what they have been forced to endure.
 
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Hamilcar    People are not stupid.   5/1/2010 6:49:41 AM
Once they see the results of their wrong decisions.
 
 

DPRK authorities slash all prices by 99 percent

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-04-12-1
4/12/2010

As inflation and food worries continue to grow in North Korea, social unrest is palpable. According to the group ?Good Friends?, North Korean officials slashed prices on all goods to 1/100th of their going rate in an effort to ease the public. Considering the fact that North Korea revalued its currency by the same ratio on November 30, it appears that Pyongyang is effectively acknowledging the reform?s failure.

The Good Friends newsletter reports that the Korean Workers? Party cabinet had handed down an order to reduce the price of all goods by a factor of 100:1, while the people of North Korea were told during local meetings that currency was revalued at 100 to 1, but not in order to reduce the sale of goods by 100 to 1, as well.

It also stated that at the first cabinet meeting in March, there was discussion on the fact that it was rumored that prices had climbed several times higher than official prices, and would continue to rise. It was decided that, at first, people thought of the currency reform as a 100-fold increase in prices, and that the same was true of management in state-run organizations. Later, at the second meeting of the cabinet, it was decided that a ?100 to 1 Price Plan? would be distributed to each city and town.

Now, People?s Committees and security forces in each city and town are enforcing the ?100 to 1 Price Plan? while the central Party?s 100:1 commerce committee has distributed a class syllabus in support of the price modifications, which was lectured on throughout the country from March 16-18. This indicates that the government is again controlling all prices throughout the country.

With no goods or aid flowing in from outside, it is likely that the price and exchange rates will continue to climb. On December 9, rice sold for 23 won, but the value of the new currency falls daily, and starvation is striking people in several areas throughout the country. Anger over government policies and general feelings angst are not hard to find in families and labor groups. The government is trying to control the prices of daily necessities, but if it is unable to do so, this situation cannot avoid becoming explosive. The central government has also sent officials out to different areas of the country to enforce a rice price of 25 won/Kg. This is the highest rice sold for in markets prior to the currency reform. Enforcing the same price throughout the country is an attempt to stabilize markets, and is a temporary measure to try to keep residents? tempers from flaring.

The November currency reform was the first currency revaluation in 17 years, and was part of a set of strong measures to restrict markets, along with market closures and bans on foreign currency. However, since last February, the inflation sparked by the currency revaluation has grown severe and internal unrest has increased, leading authorities to reopen markets and set price caps. Now, the price of rice in North Korean markets appears to have stabilized at 400 won per kilogram, but due to the unrest over the last 100 days, many middle-class residents have fallen into poverty.

This entry was posted on Monday, April 12th, 2010 at 9:36 am and is filed under Cabinet, Farmers markets, Fiscal & monetary policy, Food, Good Friends, Quote    Reply


DarthAmerica    @Reactive   5/1/2010 11:09:54 AM

But despite what you have said Darth, the reality is that when all state media is controlled by one source (those in power) the opinions of the populace can be directed at will.

 

I have yet to meet an Iranian who is not ashamed of the situation there, I have known plenty who worked before the revolution and have given me an insight into what actually happened with regards to popular control. The powerbase of nations like Iran relies on the rural communities that have no access to information other than that which they are presented with. 

 

Democracy only works if there is freedom of information, and the right to express such information, whilst I have reservations about the recent "election" in Iran, yes, there is a substantive portion of the country that votes "with" the regime, this is because there are reprecussions. Imagine how the US would be if the only source of news was Fox, this is the problem.


 

In terms of the majority of residents in Tehran, there is overwhelming fear and hatred of the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad, the problem is that a) the "legitimacy" of the election has been largely authenticated based on a previous and flawed poll by the BBC on voting intention, b) many people are only exposed to state propoganda, and thus express nationalist intentions when told that the outside world is effectively looking to destroy their culture and beliefs. It is a conservative culture, but also one that is home to both a glorious historical legacy of innovation and progress and an educated elite who have their own support and opinions, the reason I feel optimistic about Iran is because they do not have the strength to assasinate people like Moussavi, they know that their control over the majority also carries a burden of popular opinion that can only be stretched so far, in any case, the Iranian populace (at least in urban areas) has FAR more awareness of the outside world than one might suspect, Iranians are waiting patiently for their chance to get rid of the "islamic revolution" in truth, in terms of those who really control the profitable areas of Iranian industry and commerce, there are few conservatives. I had a fascinating discussion with someone whose family were very influential in Iran, his opinions on the reasons for the current downfall were largely based on the insertion of "clerics" into areas of public life for which they had no education, training, knowledge, or understanding, the vast majority of intelligent Iranians know exactly what is happening, but there are consequences for disobedience which lead people to support the ruling party until it is weak enough to be overthrown by public revolt, it's an information war, and depends on the capacity of the state to balance the benefits of the internet against the inevitable failure to control access to information..


 

What you are right about, is whether for right or wrong, it is natural to expect a significant proportion (perhaps even a large majority) of NK citizens to support their rulers, this is the same in China, if you control the only sources of information you will do well in the polls, this is natural human instinct, we tend to support "alpha rule". This is unfortunately a result of us being apes, perhaps if we had evolved from a less gregarious and Alpha-male driven species we might think differently. 

 

What this does mean is that just as in Nazi Germany, there will be fierce resistance bourne from traditional right-wing ideology (despite it being a stalinist nation), there is also an element of natural selection in process, over a long enough timespan, those who are opposed to dictatorial rule are gradually weaned out of society (and we know how that's done) leaving a largely obedient society who will only become aware of the actuality of the situation once there is true access to information.


 

I have an optimistic belief that populations are largely able to judge these things for themselves once there is the ability for them to do so, the reason the Kims have denied access to anything but the constant eulogies to their rule is self-preservation, they fear an educated elite just as the Iranian elite does, the difference being that the NK regime has been more paranoid, and has therefore viewed economic progress as a secondary objective to control and internal security, result, no internet, no foreign news/tv, we might expect t
 
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VelocityVector    Metallurgy   5/1/2010 1:37:52 PM

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/05/113_65178.html

On Friday, Minister of Defense Kim Tae-young said the military collected some pieces of aluminum from the site where the Navy ship Cheonan sank on March 26, that were believed not to be from the wreckage of the sunken vessel.

"We found the aluminum was a little different from the type we use," Kim said at a National Assembly committee session.

v^2

 
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