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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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DarthAmerica    @CFG   4/29/2010 7:05:15 PM

Let him be ...
 
Any other motives for the Cheonan incident?

I won't. We'll keep this focused on Cheonan and subsequent events.
 
-DA
 
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Reactive       4/29/2010 7:25:18 PM
C'mon, there's no case for "holier than thou" here, every thread on strategypage has an argument between you and H at some point.... No angels here, and no devils either...
 
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Hamilcar    At least some of us have the chops....   4/29/2010 8:32:18 PM
to understand the event and all the bad options available.
 
Reactive, the "economic and legal:" alternatives are there if someone has the guts to use them
 
Even if its only freedom of movement and in the wallet, KJI can be hurt, and that is all we can do with the situation and the cowardly incompetents we have in Washington right now. For if the PRC bandits hold the leash on KJI, then also note, that the Chicago Thug, holds the same type limiter on President Lee. Its not an all RoK show, here.
 
Hillary would know exactly what to do with this case. We voted for an incompetent, and put the wrong person into the White House.
 
H. 
 
 
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Reactive       4/29/2010 8:55:46 PM
As you say, IF they have the guts, but also making the north aware that those are not the only options that would be considered in the event of further provocation.
 
The reality is that economic/legal is the way to go, close co-operative manufacturing projects, end all indirect aid. The problem as much as the "actual" sanctions is the stance adopted, the tone of the message, and the semblance (where it is currently lacking) of strength. They should stop flattering the dictator with obliging politeness when he responds with murder and a continuous stream of insults.
 
Agree Hillary would be better right now, personally hoped she'd win the primaries, unfortunately an incident with an imaginary sniper team put paid to that, I certainly find it unusual that there is such silence. Diplomacy in itself is not a disincentive but rather is the mechanism keeping more forceful action at bay, when diplomacy is used against regimes without being backed up by real consequences there is no incentive to do anything other than stall, delay, lie, and if you so choose, murder. 
 
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earlm       4/29/2010 9:15:55 PM
What do you guys think of a stepped up propaganda effort involving balloon launched leaflets and radio broadcasts as well as smuggling in communications devices?
 
Could it be communicated to the army and security forces that the KFR (Kim Family Regime) is criminal and that it will face trial for crimes against humanity and that any supporters will also be looked at in a Nuremberg way?  Anyone who defects or contributes to the fall of the regime gets forgiven, obviously.
 
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Reactive       4/29/2010 9:32:11 PM

What do you guys think of a stepped up propaganda effort involving balloon launched leaflets and radio broadcasts as well as smuggling in communications devices?

 

Could it be communicated to the army and security forces that the KFR (Kim Family Regime) is criminal and that it will face trial for crimes against humanity and that any supporters will also be looked at in a Nuremberg way?  Anyone who defects or contributes to the fall of the regime gets forgiven, obviously.

There's a much cleverer way of destabilising the regime through encouraging paranoia at higher levels, you don't really achieve much by leafletting the citizenry/troops until conflict actually breaks out, you just put them at increased risk, in that by even picking up a leaflet you are risking a hell of a lot to be told that the man who controls every element of your life and does so cruelly and ineptly is, surprise surprise, an asshole.
 
I think the subtler methods are more effective, and the time to employ such strategies approaches with the "crowning" of Kim V3.
 
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earlm    I don't get it   4/29/2010 9:41:20 PM
The regime is already paranoid because they know they are criminal and that the rest of the world is against them.  They know that they will be put on trial and at the very least their kids won't have advantages because of their former position while it is likely they themselves will do time or worse and their families shamed for generations.  No, the security forces have to be divorced from the KFR.
 
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DarthAmerica       4/29/2010 9:56:17 PM

The regime is already paranoid because they know they are criminal and that the rest of the world is against them.  They know that they will be put on trial and at the very least their kids won't have advantages because of their former position while it is likely they themselves will do time or worse and their families shamed for generations.  No, the security forces have to be divorced from the KFR.

That's easy to say but much harder to do. One problem us "westerners" have is that we assume that people in countries like North Korea feel oppressed and hate their leadership. We saw this during the Iranian elections where we found out that in spite of some discontent the general Iranian public is actually very supportive of it's leadership. Not only that, the security services of such nations are designed to stop things like this from happening and have an excellent record of success. The best we could hope for at this level is to get a lot of common folk killed. Some of these places like N Korea really are "1984" like and the leadership literally has the heart and soul of the people and watched for even the slightest sign of unrest. 

To make something like this work you have to do it from within the government and security forces. Even then concealing a conspiracy such as this long enough to place it in action is very difficult. Lets not delude ourselves, we may call KJI criminal, crazy and barbaric in our press. But we must never forget that he is a very savvy and skilled leader. Not only that but there are a lot of people, including some on the South side of the DMZ who do not want to see a N Korean collapse for security and economic reasons.


-DA 
 
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VelocityVector    earlm   4/29/2010 10:08:41 PM

No, the security forces have to be divorced from the KFR.

You cannot do this without invasion and Chinese change of position.  Many in the NorK chain of command and political leadership have committed crimes against humanity, whatever that means, to achieve their positions.  Even those who didn't engage must appreciate that subordinates would be willing to accuse them of the same for opportunistic reasons in a unified Korea.  So NorKs stay the course; South Korea stays the course; nothing changes in my life time except that more people die prematurely and unnecessarily.  Recall the movie, Soylent Green?  NorKs will eat their own people before they finally implode, which will happen eventually but not for many years.  NorK is the penultimate expression of hardline communism, as we will witness I believe.  Happy to be mistaken there.  0.02

v^2

 
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Hamilcar       4/29/2010 11:20:59 PM

As you say, IF they have the guts, but also making the north aware that those are not the only options that would be considered in the event of further provocation.

 Siege is always the hard war, R. It is also the long war.

The reality is that economic/legal is the way to go, close co-operative manufacturing projects, end all indirect aid. The problem as much as the "actual" sanctions is the stance adopted, the tone of the message, and the semblance (where it is currently lacking) of strength. They should stop flattering the dictator with obliging politeness when he responds with murder and a continuous stream of insults.

Shrug. "Diplomats are trained poodles." Old French saying.
 
Agree Hillary would be better right now, personally hoped she'd win the primaries, unfortunately an incident with an imaginary sniper team put paid to that, I certainly find it unusual that there is such silence. Diplomacy in itself is not a disincentive but rather is the mechanism keeping more forceful action at bay, when diplomacy is used against regimes without being backed up by real consequences there is no incentive to do anything other than stall, delay, lie, and if you so choose, murder. 
 
That is what I mean. She would find a way. Its amazing that as SecState she has had ZERO input into this. Note when she's articulated a reasonable US position, whether Dhafur, Iran, the Palestinians (terrorists), the PRC bandits, the Somalis, or the DPRK; that stupid idiot, Obama, either cuts her off at the knees with a contradictory act; or contradicts her statement in a press release the very next day, the very declared policy he announced himself that he sent her out to sell in the first place!
 
Have you ever wondered why HE does that?   
H.
 
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