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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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DarthAmerica    It's clear, been clear, where this is going...   4/27/2010 1:43:11 AM
US cautious after SKorea suggests torpedo sunk warship
http://www.spacedaily.com/images-lg/south-korea-search-sunken-warship-mar10-afp-lg.jpg" width="300" height="250" hspace="0" vspace="2" align="right" alt="" />
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) April 26, 2010
The United States on Monday reacted cautiously to remarks from a cabinet minister in Seoul suggesting a torpedo sunk a South Korean warship near the disputed border with North  Quote    Reply

Hamilcar       4/27/2010 1:52:38 AM
Appeasement does not alter physics.
 
H.
 
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Mikko    Support for action?   4/27/2010 4:15:39 AM
I wonder what is the general mood among South Korean population. That, in the end, more or less dictates the outcome: what move has the most political support behind it?
 
Are the 40+ perished sailors enough for a nation to let blood, sweat'n tears start flowing? After all, one's life can be more than just serving the prosperity of an individual. Sometimes we identify with the nation and our kind more than we identify with our own safety and predictability. How close is that threshold with South Koreans? 

Presumably all Southerners know the risks; the artillery barrage on Seoul, the possible use of gas/germs as a desperate measure, the economic disaster. But all these don't matter when you're seriously pissed off.
 
M
 
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gf0012-aust       4/27/2010 5:18:03 AM
The leaks which some are posting here are simply to provide cover once the true nature of how this happened is made public. It's also possible that the "why" this happened could be an equal surprise to all parties concerned.


there are american, australian and swedish clearance and demolition divers plus sinkex teams in attendance.

the reality of what has happened is well known.  what has happened now is that political management has taken priority.

the results about what has happened were known after the first videorays and diver assessments were run.  pulling the hull(s) have only confirmed it.

sinkex hull assessment isn't rocket science. once you have the fragments, once you see the shape of the damage, the behaviour of superstructure post explosion etc then its relatively academic.

I've kept my counsel on this, but torpedoes and mines behave very differently.  The US has ample modern examples of mine warfare damage from, the gulf, suez and Sidra over the last 30 years. (Mines have cauused over $100m damage for a an outlay estimated at less than $100k - and one of those was a 1917 contact mine), likewise australia, america and sweden (by rote) have a number of recent sinkex events to pull data from.  we all know what condition hulls look like after these things happen. (with "existing" torps ranging from Mk44, 46, 48, CBASS, 50 and Mk54) - then we also have results from UK ""nn"rays, euro 90 series etc... )  We also have the post analysis of chinese/russian torpedos compliments of approp friendly nations who were ex-users.

what is happening now has got zero to do with being cautious about publicly declaring what caused this - its now about political management. 
 

 







 


 
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warpig       4/27/2010 7:00:25 AM


The leaks which some are posting here are simply to provide cover once the true nature of how this happened is made public. It's also possible that the "why" this happened could be an equal surprise to all parties concerned.


there are american, australian and swedish clearance and demolition divers plus sinkex teams in attendance.

the reality of what has happened is well known.  what has happened now is that political management has taken priority.

the results about what has happened were known after the first videorays and diver assessments were run.  pulling the hull(s) have only confirmed it.

sinkex hull assessment isn't rocket science. once you have the fragments, once you see the shape of the damage, the behaviour of superstructure post explosion etc then its relatively academic.

I've kept my counsel on this, but torpedoes and mines behave very differently.  The US has ample modern examples of mine warfare damage from, the gulf, suez and Sidra over the last 30 years. (Mines have cauused over $100m damage for a an outlay estimated at less than $100k - and one of those was a 1917 contact mine), likewise australia, america and sweden (by rote) have a number of recent sinkex events to pull data from.  we all know what condition hulls look like after these things happen. (with "existing" torps ranging from Mk44, 46, 48, CBASS, 50 and Mk54) - then we also have results from UK ""nn"rays, euro 90 series etc... )  We also have the post analysis of chinese/russian torpedos compliments of approp friendly nations who were ex-users.

what is happening now has got zero to do with being cautious about publicly declaring what caused this - its now about political management. 


 
I assume what gf meant was it has nothing to do with being cautious due to uncertainty regarding what caused the damage (because what caused it is known with high confidence), but that it has to do with not announcing what quite clearly caused it before the South Korean and American governments have figured out how to officially react to that announcement.  And part of figuring out how to react is still trying to figure out exactly who did it, why they did it, and how their governments are reacting so far.  That's certainly what I have assumed all along is what is happening.
 
 
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DarthAmerica    Politics, not appeasment.   4/27/2010 11:05:32 AM
Appeasement does not alter physics.

H.


Politics alters everything Herald.

-DA 
 
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DarthAmerica    @Warpig   4/27/2010 11:12:16 AM


I assume what gf meant was it has nothing to do with being cautious due to uncertainty regarding what caused the damage (because what caused it is known with high confidence), but that it has to do with not announcing what quite clearly caused it before the South Korean and American governments have figured out how to officially react to that announcement.  And part of figuring out how to react is still trying to figure out exactly who did it, why they did it, and how their governments are reacting so far.  That's certainly what I have assumed all along is what is happening.

 

I know what GF meant. But I'm not talking about the "what caused" this anymore. Yes it's obvious and yes I'm inclined to believe the general consensus about what happened. It's the "who" and "why" I am not stating one way or another yet for reasons that should be obvious. Politics and economics are going to drive this event, not anything else.

-DA 
 
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Hamilcar    Politics....    4/27/2010 1:26:32 PM


Appeasement does not alter physics.




H.









Politics alters everything Herald.




-DA 




gets you 9-11ed and/or Pearl Harbored and into a war.
 
Sometmes STUPID is inexcusable.
 
H.
 
 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/27/2010 3:33:13 PM







Appeasement does not alter physics.










H.



Politics alters everything Herald.


-DA 



gets you 9-11ed and/or Pearl Harbored and into a war.

 

Sometmes STUPID is inexcusable.

 

H.

 

I agree. However in this case I would caution a rush to judgement or characterizing the statements. It's easy to say something like "it's stupid" in hindsight. It's hard to manage a situation such as this in order to prevent a war. Does South Korea pursue a war now that it loses even if it wins? Or do they seek a long term solution that either
A. Solves the problem and avoids war
 
or
 
B. Go to war when the conditions for achieving a non-pyrrhic victory
 
It would be quite stupid to cuase a war, win and at the end be standing in the ruins of Seoul, economic destitution and encumbered by the weight of integrating a shattered North Korea. This is not a simple issue and it's why it's being approached methodically and with caution.
 
 
-DA

 
 
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Hamilcar    Weasel words.   4/27/2010 4:12:56 PM
Everyone is dancing around the tiger and does not want to confront it.
 
The fact is that if it were just the DPRK, we would swat them and be done.
 
What everyone guesses at, is this question...."Is there PRC bandit involvement?"
 
Remember The Pueblo Lesson.
 
 

The USS Pueblo Incident

Mitchell Lerner
Professor of History, Ohio State University

November 13, 2002

This presentation will cover a little-known chapter in Cold War history. The USS Pueblo incident received little attention in January, 1968 when it began, and almost 35 years later, during the current nuclear drama on the Korean peninsula, it remains unfamiliar to the American public. Today, well under the US public's radar, US and North Korean officials are currently negotiating the return of the Pueblo, which the communist country seized at gunpoint in international waters in January, 1968. To take a page from David Letterman, this talk will be presented as a top ten list, examining ten things you may not have known about the Pueblo incident.

Quite simply, you may not know the incident happened. It occurred 35 years ago, involving 83 American sailors, of which one was killed and the other 82 imprisoned, tortured and humiliated by their North Korean captors.

The USS Pueblo, initially an Army general purpose supply vessel, was built in 1944. While it was retired in 1954, it was brought back into service in 1966 under Operation Clickbeetle, a joint Naval Intelligence and National Security Agency effort. The operation involved converting cargo ships to spy vessels outfitted with state-of-the art equipment to intercept signals communications. The repairs involved creating a metal room known as the Sod Hut, where technicians would operate the surveillance gear to intercept and gather sonar, radar and other types of signals communications. Clickbeetle was actually inspired by Soviet surveillance operations dating back to the late 1950s.

On January 11, 1968, the Pueblo left Japan for its first mission and set off for the coast of North Korea. For two weeks, it operated relatively quietly outside North Korea. It was later surrounded by North Korean forces. Attempting to flee, the Pueblo was attacked which resulted in the death of one sailor. The spy ship surrendered and the remaining 82 crew members were taken prisoner by the North Koreans.

Number nine on our list: the ship never should have left the port. Suffering from a vast array of technical problems, the Pueblo was barely capable of floating. The steering engine failed 180 times in 3 days. The internal communications were pathetic. The Sod Hut, the most vital and sensitive location on the ship, was not wired to the intercom system. Anyone within the metal room wishing to send or receive messages over the ships intercom had to go outside, even though the procedures required the door to be tripled-locked at all times. The general alarm system operated on the same system as the intercom. Should the alarm sound, the intercom would be rendered useless. External communications were state of the art in theory; however in reality they were atrocious. In essence, the external communications were inefficient and unreliable.

With all the classified equipment and documents on the ship, the crew was unable to destroy them. Axes and sledgehammers proved useless against the metal encased equipment, while the shredders and the incinerator for the documents were also worthless. As a result, documents were to be put in weighted bags and thrown overboard, a futile exercise if the Pueblo operated off an enemy's coast.

Number eight on the countdown: You may not know how badly the intelligence community performed. Operation Clickbeetle missions required a minimal risk environment. The planners' low-risk assessment hinged on the fact that the Pueblo would be operating in international waters. This was the core of the problem. While the US and Soviet Union conducted such operations off each other's coasts and reached a tacit understanding, there was no such consensus with other communist states. The US intelligence community assumed that the understanding between the US and the Soviet Union extended to the greater communist bloc. The Pueblo failed all of the criteria for low risk status, including political sensitivit

 
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