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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
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Hamilcar    If assassination was simple   4/14/2010 9:16:00 AM
then why is the Bandit, Castro, still alive?
 
The problem with cult of personality types is the followers they leave behind. Remove KJI and you still have 60 years of goonenry to either reform or kill in the DPRK population that is left in the chaos.
 
Its like US 1960s radicals, you have to either wait for them to die off and be replaced by the Pepsi generation or screw up so badly that finally the revolt comes from the majority and they are erased as a political factor by the angry polity.
 
H.
 
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Reactive       4/14/2010 12:11:02 PM

Give hits a chance!  The only answer is assassination or a coup - the other solutions might be better but none of them will be tried, don't you get it?  The proper way to solve these one-party one-man state problems is to remove the one man or the one party.  Liberating Iraq was right, but how much cheaper would it have been to accomplish with one shot, one kill.  Even one missile/bomb, several kills.  (Iran is a different matter, there is no point in assassinating Ahmie or the lead ayatollah, then you need a coup.) 

 

Real nation-states ought not to fear this as there is no scenario for either assassination or coup in, say, Russia, China, America, Israel, India...Poland  You're not going to turn China into an American satellite by whacking Hu, nor India by eliminating the top twenty BJP leaders.  The GOP is not going to go all Night of the Long Knives on the Democrats.  Nations vulnerable to coups are inherently suitable targets for this means. 


 

You can't do this willy-nilly, as some scenarios could lead to civil war (or to nuclear war), but it is a tool which should be sharpened, not junked.



 
I've spent many many hours looking through news reports in North Korea, the "toned down" version that gets distributed online, it's eye-opening reading, it makes the PRC media control seem positively open-source and liberalised by comparison. There are likely to be a large number of people, as with all human societies, who follow the dominant power and find it easier accepting the predominant (and the only safe) ideology, unfortunately our simian origins come in to play when it comes to accepting the dominance of power.
 
Having said this, I think delamination of the fighting force itself could be achieved relatively easily, once BLU-108's, mavericks and Hellfires rain down in abundance destroying the 50's era formations of armour you will see a simple "self preservation" instinct that will be enhanced by destroying C3I capabilities. This is the sort of war that the US, in particular is optimised to fight, where the force structure is rapidly obliterated into chaos, the issue would be whether the army, which is given special status, and I suspect might be fanatically loyal given their own predeliction for believing and enforcing their own supremacy (food, rights, freedoms, "pleasure) over the population. On the whole I suspect a vietnam-type situation is unlikely in the event of all-out war, so long as NK military command is rapidly obliterated.

Whacking Kim wouldn't be that hard, he makes regular appearances and intel can probably identify where he is likely to make an appearance, the problem is that, as with Stalin (who is his model to some degree moreso than his father, who commanded a more genuine loyalty) there will be no shortage of ambitious party-members waiting in the wings for their chance to be a god-emperor, also a particular problem with SK is the location of Seoul, an evacuation would need to take place prior to any offensive (even a targetted assasination) which would be hard to keep secret, I think that's the problem, the South doesn't have the luxury of choosing the time of engagement, and has its most significant economic and civil assets within artillery range.
 
And assuming you take control, what do you about the party officials/police etc, do you get rid of them as in Iraq and accept a period of lawlessness? Is this less of an issue with a nation that has been stamped into the mud by its leadership for 60 years? Will there be some form of ideological insurgency/civilwar/viet cong equivalent? Will China simply step in and take control once the leadership is weakened? Remember the NK military believe China is their great and loyal friend... You won't find a single critical word about the PRC anywhere in the NK "media".
 
It's definitely easier for the South to try and avoid this ever happening, at the very least it would put them back a decade or more in terms of economic development, accountant mentality being what it is, can you see them taking these risks to get rid of the parasite? This is why the South should, in my view intensify economic sanctions to the point that there are no projects of co-operation, let the North make the first move if it really comes to that, but be damn sure you are prepared for a fight if need be.
 
It's better to be seen to avoid starting wars, disengage economically and accept the risk, (along with NK collapse) that must be taken by curtai
 
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Nichevo       4/14/2010 1:18:57 PM

then why is the Bandit, Castro, still alive?

Because JFK, or whoever you want to blame for Bahia de Cocinos/Playa Giron, was...lacking.  Eisenhower had no trouble.
 

The problem with cult of personality types is the followers they leave behind. Remove KJI and you still have 60 years of goonenry to either reform or kill in the DPRK population that is left in the chaos.

The next guy will know how he got there and understand the implications thereof.  If CIA (and KCIA) are on the job, the next guy might be our guy. Or our-ish.   If we don't like him, lather, rinse, repeat.  Nobody beefs when the Russians do it. 
 
I suppose if it is done neatly - perhaps a plane crash? - it can become an opportunity for rapprochement.  In any case the DPRK leadership must know they are in a bad way and might very well like a way out.  Think of Khrushchev's Stalin speech.  Maybe RoK can send a former president to help out with the investigation http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Images/emwink.gif" align="absmiddle" border="0" alt="" /> and with some combined psyops, prepare the ground.
 

Its like US 1960s radicals, you have to either wait for them to die off and be replaced by the Pepsi generation or screw up so badly that finally the revolt comes from the majority and they are erased as a political factor by the angry polity.


 

H.
Hey, I am getting to the point of could-care-less.  Maybe we should leave RoK to their destiny.  The whole point of being there was to resist commie domination.
 
But every day it goes on is time, trouble and expense for us.  Plus there are factions who wish we would leave.  Let us do so.  Either they will be grateful (lol) or they will miss us and want us back.  After all, are we really needed there, or can RoK take care of its own business?  Tempting to say Let 'em go to hell.
 
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Nichevo       4/14/2010 1:33:22 PM




Give hits a chance!  The only answer is assassination or a coup - the other solutions might be better but none of them will be tried, don't you get it?  The proper way to solve these one-party one-man state problems is to remove the one man or the one party.  Liberating Iraq was right, but how much cheaper would it have been to accomplish with one shot, one kill.  Even one missile/bomb, several kills.  (Iran is a different matter, there is no point in assassinating Ahmie or the lead ayatollah, then you need a coup.) 



 



Real nation-states ought not to fear this as there is no scenario for either assassination or coup in, say, Russia, China, America, Israel, India...Poland  You're not going to turn China into an American satellite by whacking Hu, nor India by eliminating the top twenty BJP leaders.  The GOP is not going to go all Night of the Long Knives on the Democrats.  Nations vulnerable to coups are inherently suitable targets for this means. 






 



You can't do this willy-nilly, as some scenarios could lead to civil war (or to nuclear war), but it is a tool which should be sharpened, not junked.










 

I've spent many many hours looking through news reports in North Korea, the "toned down" version that gets distributed online, it's eye-opening reading, it makes the PRC media control seem positively open-source and liberalised by comparison. There are likely to be a large number of people, as with all human societies, who follow the dominant power and find it easier accepting the predominant (and the only safe) ideology, unfortunately our simian origins come in to play when it comes to accepting the dominance of power.


These people are HUNGRY.  The advantage of conquering DPRK and leaving Kim alive is so he can go on that funny DPRK radio station (with a gunbarrel jammed up his ass) and tell the people how wrong he was and how they should listen to the nice mens in the Kevlar with the PGMs and the food.  But obviously after a decapitation we control the message.  It would be valuable to have in depth understanding of the brainwashing and general information levels of the relevant DPRK sectors - the populace, Outer Party, Inner Party.
 


Whacking Kim wouldn't be that hard, he makes regular appearances and intel can probably identify where he is likely to make an appearance, the problem is that, as with Stalin (who is his model to some degree moreso than his father, who commanded a more genuine loyalty) there will be no shortage of ambitious party-members waiting in the wings for their chance to be a god-emperor,
 
 
With an earwig or just an inconspicuous liaison guy to periodically whisper to him "Thou art mortal."  The USSR did at least somewhat moderate after Stalin's death.  As long as the next gangster takes our phone calls it would seem an improvement.  But again, will they have unit cohesion or be a gang of thieves?  Or maybe a genuine reformer could take hold and do them some good.
 
also a particular problem with SK is the location of Seoul, an evacuation would need to take place prior to any offensive (even a targetted assasination) which would be hard to keep secret, I think that's the problem, the South doesn't have the luxury of choosing the time of engagement, and has its most significant economic and civil assets within artillery range.

Chop the head, somebody has to give that order.  Lower echelons will have to think twice, maybe more.  They can't believe they'll win.
 

And assuming you take control, what do you about the party officials/police etc, do you get rid of them as in Iraq and accept a period of lawlessness? Is this less of an issue with a nation that has been stamped into the mud by its leadership for 60 years? Will there be some form of ideological insurgency/civilwar/viet cong equivalent? Will China simply step in and take control once the leadership is weakened? Remember the NK military believe China is their great and loyal friend... You won't find a single critical word about the PRC anywhere in the NK "media".

China?  LOL, let 'em have it.  M
 
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jhpigott       4/14/2010 2:04:16 PM
Bent Cheonan Hull Points to Power of Explosion

Most of the upper metal structure of the sunken Navy corvette Cheonan was bent upward in an unexplained blast on March 26, military investigators say. The military on Thursday found that the metal upper deck and hallway near the ripped-off part along the welded seam in the stern had been bent upward. Several survivors had already testified that the upper structure of the stern was bent upward.

On the midship deck, where a chimney was missing, a hole was opened in the metal structure that was bent upward. The floor of the senior chief petty officers' mess and the engine control room below the deck had reportedly been pushed up close to the deck.

The metal plates in the hallway below the stern deck were also bent upward, showing that there had been a big explosion from below. The stern was severed at a slightly oblique angle some 30 m from the back.

"No complete examination of the severed part of the stern has been done yet, but from what we have discovered so far, we believe that an external explosion most likely occurred as a result of a torpedo or a mine attack below the ship, not an internal explosion," a military source said.

The salvage operations were suspended temporarily that day due to high waves and strong wind, but the Defense Ministry decided to salvage the stern on Thursday if weather permits. A ministry spokesman said, "We decided to wrap the third chain around the stern around Wednesday afternoon and salvage it the following day."

Meanwhile, three Australian experts arrived in Korea Tuesday to join efforts to determine the cause of the Cheonan's sinking. Military authorities are considering a memorandum of understanding binding countries that are sending experts to join a civilian-military investigation team to a set of guideline

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/img_dir/2010/04/14/2010041400994_0.jpg" /> 
 
 
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warpig       4/14/2010 2:19:02 PM
Say, what's that sound?  Why, I do believe I hear F-15Ks idling their engines during pre-flight checks....  :-)
 
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Reactive       4/14/2010 2:33:32 PM

Say, what's that sound?  Why, I do believe I hear F-15Ks idling their engines during pre-flight checks....  :-)

I suspect you may be dissapointed there, WP..
 
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jhpigott       4/14/2010 2:34:06 PM

Say, what's that sound?  Why, I do believe I hear F-15Ks idling their engines during pre-flight checks....  :-)

I know next to nothing about engineering or the blast effects of a torpedo/mine, but even I can see from the picture the metal bent/warped upward . . .  I imagine it's just going to be tougher and tougher for the SK govt to persuade the public that NK wasn't involved 
 
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YelliChink       4/14/2010 3:12:27 PM
"3 Australian experts"
 
I don't remember Australians are experts in destruction pattern of bottom mine, but they do have plenty of experience on sinking ships with heavy torpedoes.
 
 
 
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warpig       4/14/2010 3:33:11 PM



Say, what's that sound?  Why, I do believe I hear F-15Ks idling their engines during pre-flight checks....  :-)





I suspect you may be dissapointed there, WP..


I know, I know.  It's just an ingrained reaction to seemingly being so close to the balloon going up.  Sort of like how a draft horse always wants to pull.

 
 
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