Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Korea Discussion Board
   Return to Topic Page
Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
 
Quote    Reply

Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest
YelliChink       4/12/2010 1:52:48 PM
>
 
Taiwanese news source.
 
It says that DPRK Western Sea Fleat was on high alert and canceled all vacation since mid March. According to defectors, they had a conference on Feb 16 (Birthday of Kim Jong-mentally-Ill) and decided that they will revenge on the sea battle last November.
 
Quote    Reply

Reactive       4/12/2010 8:29:45 PM

>

 

Taiwanese news source.

 

It says that DPRK Western Sea Fleat was on high alert and canceled all vacation since mid March. According to defectors, they had a conference on Feb 16 (Birthday of Kim Jong-mentally-Ill) and decided that they will revenge on the sea battle last November.


Any chance of a translation Yelli?
 
I can't seem to get that story in the English-version... 
 
I'm going to post a load of updated news stories soon which include a few very good analyses of what is known, what is being planned, and what to expect in the coming weeks.
 
Bottom line, DPRK is getting very desperate, this is not business as usual.
 
Quote    Reply

YelliChink       4/12/2010 10:59:54 PM
Any chance of a translation Yelli?
 
No problem.

I can't seem to get that story in the English-version... 

Given how MFM is operating today, I am not surprised. Their report on Hu-Obama meeting is completely misleading. If you read Chinese sources and English sources on this one, you get completely different picture.
 
I'm going to post a load of updated news stories soon which include a few very good analyses of what is known, what is being planned, and what to expect in the coming weeks.

Can't wait.

Bottom line, DPRK is getting very desperate, this is not business as usual.
 
It is still better to gamble that Kim Jong-mentally-Ill will die before he goes berserk.
 
 ==============
 
Translation:
 
Title: On the sinking of ROKS Cheonan, Rumors in DPRK point to "Punishment"
 
 
 (CNA reporter from Seoul) A DPRK defector pointed out today that, though North Korean military remain silent on the sinking of Cheonan, there are rumors from the NK military believing this is punishment to the South. He believes, DPRK can't shack off on the sinking of Cheonan.
 
Korean "United Network" reports that, the leader of a DPRK refugee group "Free North Korean Movement United"  pointed out, NK West Sea Fleet Command held a meeting on "Revenge to Sea battle last November," and was put on emergency alert, canceling all vacation and leave.
 
The guy said: "I got it from informants that they held a meeting in Nampo, WSFC, on Kim's birth day (Feb 16) about revenging ROKN on the lost naval battle."
 
He said, the meeting was under the instruction of Kim.
 
 According to KCUN report, the guys further said that, after the naval battle in last November, which 10 North Korean sailors killed, the fleet command was sacked, which showed that the North took heavy beating in that battle.
 
The guy also said, the informant is a cousin of mid-rank officer in North Korean military.  He used to be on the phone with in 2 or 3 times per month.
 
In addition, another informant living near Chinese border revealed that West Sea Command was on emergency alert 10 days before the sinking of Cheonan.
 
His brother was serving in West Sea Command. The guy (the refugee group) keeps in touch with the informant to keep track on price.
 
The informant says that her brother was about to have a vacation, but was on put on hold since mid March to early April.
 
 

 
Quote    Reply

Reactive       4/13/2010 11:50:20 PM
South Korea has been the master of its own downfall in the past decade, and as a result of this, their options are limited here.
 
They'll likely do what they have done for the last 10-12 years, do the minimum possible to keep the Kim Regime from getting restive, and with their heads firmly in the sand hope that the situation one day improves of its own accord.
 
The sunshine policy has been a resounding failure, the result of which was both to undermine US sanctions against NK whilst simaltaneously allowing KJ-IL to develop a nuclear program.
 
Their forces haven't been modernised to the extent which is necessary, the military response to this has been uncoordinated, slapdash, the young and badly-drilled (abandon-ship drills once or twice a year??) sailors do not exactly inspire confidence that it has the mettle to deal convincingly with any further acts of aggression, 
 
Financial restrictions are the most that can be expected here, and it's possible that Kim Jong-Il has anticipated that co-operative projects will be terminated by the South should the Cheonan be shown to have been sunk by a torpedo/mine, this perhaps explains why, after 2 years, he has expelled South Korean citizens from the Mt Kumang resort... 
 
The fact that the end of the Sunshine Policy has had a cumulative effect (when combined with the revaluation of the currency) the regime is cash-strapped, and so the only real effective option open is going to be financial, cut off funding entirely, something that should have been done a long time ago. ?
 
Whether this elicits a stronger response from the DPRK or not, the South better be prepared for the worst, anything could happen when a madman is nearing his end, he's shown no consideration for his populace thus far, I don't expect him to start now. 
 
In terms of technicalities re: the sinking, there's growing international cooperation, the US is delaying meeting the NK ambassador until the investigation is concluded. The Stern has now been floated, is being examined, Bow presumably following soon, superstructure has been blown away, demonstrating that there was a blast. Some people on the ship seem to have reported two explosions, perhaps the initial shockwave through the keel and then the sound of the steam explosion in the air?
 
I can't help thinking that given the SK preference to avoid the issue of it's neighbour wherever possible, it might be more convenient for all concerned if nothing is proven...
 
In any case, stories like this don't exactly inspire me with confidence that there is a handle on the situation, what were they thinking??

Seoul 'Hampered Its Own Ability to Spy on N.Korea'

Unification Minister Hyun In-taek on Tuesday admitted that the fiber optic cables South Korea provided have made it more difficult to spy on North Korea. Hyun was answering a question from a lawmaker at a session of the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee. "I understand that there is a problem or a loophole" in South Korea's intelligence-gathering ability, he said.

Grand National Party lawmaker Chung Jin-suk expressed worries that South Korea's ability to gather intelligence was weakened by fiber optic cables which the South Korean government supplied to the North in the past. "I suspect that some of the 45 km-long fiber optic cables may have been diverted to lay a communications network between frontline Army units in the North," he said.

Hyun said Seoul has "no plan as of now to comply with an additional request from the North for more fiber optic cables."

The South Korean government sent 20 km, 15 km and 2 km-long copper cables to the North in 2002, 2005 and 2007, which were meant to be used for inter-Korean military communications. Last year, the South supplied the North with 45 km-long fiber optic cables, two sets of optical termination equipment, and two sets of optical measuring instruments.

Under an agreement, a 25 km portion was supposed to be laid on the east coast, and another 20 km portion on the west coast. It is difficult to wiretap a network of fiber optic cables, Chung said.

"We haven't checked yet whether the cables were used simply for the inter-Korean military communications network or for the expansion of a new communications network for frontline units," Chung said.

He said if copper cables were replaced with fiber optic cables, then that would make intelligence

 
Quote    Reply

Reactive       4/14/2010 12:26:15 AM
 Time to think about the political fall-out from what you can expect when the report comes out. I do not agree that President Lee doesn;'t know how to handle the North . He's a tough customer who sure knew how to manage his Hyundai operation. He is a pragmatist. I suspect that he has a good clue as to how  he will punish the North, even if he can't prove what he so clearly suspects.
 
I think it's the extent to which his reaction is limited by whatever sounds he gets from the current US administration, In the event of a NK "guilty verdict" it's certain that he won't be taking action without some form of consensus, as any international sanctions will need the support of the UN security council and that requires Chinese consent.
 
If, OTOH, it is shown to be a "strong probability" but not conclusively proven to have been NK enemy action as I suspect, then the likely outcome will be to turn off the money taps insofar as they still exist between North and South Korea, but interestingly, Obama seems keen to talk 6 nation disarmament talks, which are a perfect example of a diplomatic initiative which is doomed to failure. They need nuclear weapons as leverage, the more they have the safer they are from being either ignored completely or attacked.
 
He can damage South Korea financially too, by raising the prospect of conflict in the minds of the markets and credit agencies.... It may simply be the case that South Korea would rather make concessions than have to deal with this issue.. If you were to perform that calculation as an accountant you would invariably seek to lessen the risk, and in a nation that has managed to largely ignore/not think about the thousands of artillery pieces aimed at their population centers across the NLL, this may be the preferable option.
 
Brinksmanship can not work forever on the part of KJ-Il, I suspect that this action was an attention-seeking device, he knows the ROK won't go to war, but he also knows that they may once again return to the more convenient path of some level of financial appeasement if they want to maintain a stable and growing economy without the element of risk these incidents create, problem is, if they ignore him, then he has to keep making "plays", if they respond in kind he can raise the stakes, it's a game of poker, basically. 
 
Kim Jong-Il reminds me of someone who can project more power than he is actually capable of by appearing to have less to lose/to be more willing to fight, the reality is that his entire legacy and that of his father will likely be undone if his hegemony fails due to financial collapse, a coup, or a war... It's not a risk he'll take, and if he does I wonder whether China might actually pull the rug from under him, as it were... They're key to this, and I hope there's discussions taking place behind the scenes, the one problem he can't avoid is that if he becomes the biggest problem, he is, like the seam in a Keel, the point of least resistance..

 
Quote    Reply

Hamilcar       4/14/2010 12:48:40 AM
If you think the PRC bandits are going to do anything to defuse or rectify this situation, R, then I am sorry to disappoint you.

They are obstructionists. They want to assert themselves in region, and reverse their ancient loss of face at the hands of the Americans. That means they will let their stooge run as far as he dares and will not lift a finger to keep him from pushing as hard as he can to be an irritant. 
 
The PRC bandits exhibited this exact behavior with their puppet regimes in Africa. The US tried to get some cooperation on arms smuggling, slavery traffic, and water wars by asking the PRCs to use some of their own influence to reign in some of Khartoum's worst excesses.     

Well that worked out well, didn't it? Their activities in the Indian Ocean, have been also illustrative.
 
Some might actually call the PRC bandits "imperialists" in behavior.   
 
As for what the RoK's will do, they have their own hard choices.  Lee is no pushover, but he is squeezed hard as I said between a prancing fool and his corrupt administration on one side and a a psychotic and hos Beijing protectors on the other side.
 
Its not like China and the RoK couldn't solve this as they actually have a common interest. However BANDITS don't think the way you and I or Mister Lee does.  
 
H.
 
Quote    Reply

Reactive       4/14/2010 12:50:09 AM

WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Tuesday he believed that sanctions against North Korea would eventually work and that Pyongyang would return to the six-party talks over its nuclear program.

"I think it's fair to say that North Korea has chosen a path of severe isolation that has been extraordinarily damaging to its people," Obama told a news conference at the end of a summit on nuclear security.

He said that as pressure builds, Pyongyang will want to break out of its isolation and "we'll see a return to the six-party talks and ... we will see a change in behavior." 
 
 
From whom? The only nation that is particularly significant in the talks is China, maybe he knows something we don't about what their involvement here will be, I think it's hoping for too much to expect them to do much of anything publicly, but if they decline to prop his regime up with a booster injection of cash then he'll be a lot more vulnerable, possibly even to the point of making concessions... 
 
This is the thing with "strong" diplomacy, it can be easily undermined/or is useless if not unilateral, especially when unilateral SC approval is required for anything internationally binding to happen. Let's hope China is in a mood to curry favour in washington, I like the idea that they're worried about their currency undervaluation to the extent that they would be willing to assist here, but I'm not entirely convinced that the US doesn't have a reciprocal problem...
 
Quote    Reply

Merchant_Of_Menace       4/14/2010 1:12:18 AM

 Time to think about the political fall-out from what you can expect when the report comes out. I do not agree that President Lee doesn;'t know how to handle the North . He's a tough customer who sure knew how to manage his Hyundai operation. He is a pragmatist. I suspect that he has a good clue as to how  he will punish the North, even if he can't prove what he so clearly suspects.

 

I think it's the extent to which his reaction is limited by whatever sounds he gets from the current US administration, In the event of a NK "guilty verdict" it's certain that he won't be taking action without some form of consensus, as any international sanctions will need the support of the UN security council and that requires Chinese consent.


 

If, OTOH, it is shown to be a "strong probability" but not conclusively proven to have been NK enemy action as I suspect, then the likely outcome will be to turn off the money taps insofar as they still exist between North and South Korea, but interestingly, Obama seems keen to talk 6 nation disarmament talks, which are a perfect example of a diplomatic initiative which is doomed to failure. They need nuclear weapons as leverage, the more they have the safer they are from being either ignored completely or attacked.


 

He can damage South Korea financially too, by raising the prospect of conflict in the minds of the markets and credit agencies.... It may simply be the case that South Korea would rather make concessions than have to deal with this issue.. If you were to perform that calculation as an accountant you would invariably seek to lessen the risk, and in a nation that has managed to largely ignore/not think about the thousands of artillery pieces aimed at their population centers across the NLL, this may be the preferable option.


 

Brinksmanship can not work forever on the part of KJ-Il, I suspect that this action was an attention-seeking device, he knows the ROK won't go to war, but he also knows that they may once again return to the more convenient path of some level of financial appeasement if they want to maintain a stable and growing economy without the element of risk these incidents create, problem is, if they ignore him, then he has to keep making "plays", if they respond in kind he can raise the stakes, it's a game of poker, basically. 


 


Kim Jong-Il reminds me of someone who can project more power than he is actually capable of by appearing to have less to lose/to be more willing to fight, the reality is that his entire legacy and that of his father will likely be undone if his hegemony fails due to financial collapse, a coup, or a war... It's not a risk he'll take, and if he does I wonder whether China might actually pull the rug from under him, as it were... They're key to this, and I hope there's discussions taking place behind the scenes, the one problem he can't avoid is that if he becomes the biggest problem, he is, like the seam in a Keel, the point of least resistance..








So, South Korea has two options?
 
1. Feed the communist parasite
 
2. Painfully remove the parasite from its back.
 
Quote    Reply

Reactive       4/14/2010 1:56:02 AM

If you think the PRC bandits are going to do anything to defuse or rectify this situation, R, then I am sorry to disappoint you.





They are obstructionists. They want to assert themselves in region, and reverse their ancient loss of face at the hands of the Americans. That means they will let their stooge run as far as he dares and will not lift a finger to keep him from pushing as hard as he can to be an irritant. 

 

The PRC bandits exhibited this exact behavior with their puppet regimes in Africa. The US tried to get some cooperation on arms smuggling, slavery traffic, and water wars by asking the PRCs to use some of their own influence to reign in some of Khartoum's worst excesses.     




Well that worked out well, didn't it? Their activities in the Indian Ocean, have been also illustrative.


 

Some might actually call the PRC bandits "imperialists" in behavior.   


 

As for what the RoK's will do, they have their own hard choices.  Lee is no pushover, but he is squeezed hard as I said between a prancing fool and his corrupt administration on one side and a a psychotic and hos Beijing protectors on the other side.

 

Its not like China and the RoK couldn't solve this as they actually have a common interest. However BANDITS don't think the way you and I or Mister Lee does.  


 

H.


Yep they're characterised by having not the slightest regard for human suffering or the slighest aspiration for basic human rights or freedoms...
 
In a sense, China didn't do anything to intervene in Sudan (even during the darfur massacre) a) because they like to maintain cordial relationships with the murderers they frequently do business with b) because it has no "morality" in international affairs whatsoever.
 
But the key thing about the above is that most of the international issues that China is obfuscatory in relation to (Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, South America) don't cost them anything to remain that way, if anything, by making absolutely no judgements about any of the regimes they deal with, they actually foster easier relations with them and act as an important "big brother" with the obvious reciprocal generosity this entails, in the case of NK, it's their own economy and sphere of influence that is at risk, if they genuinely see war as a possibility they may reconsider their position, as it is, and if South Korea in the face of this action (if proven) maintains a risk-averse posture,  they can continue to bankroll him no matter the sanctions imposed by other nations with very little risk of having to spend money on something as unimportant as a human catastrophe or even worse, a true democracy on their doorstep.

 
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Nichevo    Assassinations: Pour encourager les autres   4/14/2010 2:50:41 AM
Give hits a chance!  The only answer is assassination or a coup - the other solutions might be better but none of them will be tried, don't you get it?  The proper way to solve these one-party one-man state problems is to remove the one man or the one party.  Liberating Iraq was right, but how much cheaper would it have been to accomplish with one shot, one kill.  Even one missile/bomb, several kills.  (Iran is a different matter, there is no point in assassinating Ahmie or the lead ayatollah, then you need a coup.) 
 
Real nation-states ought not to fear this as there is no scenario for either assassination or coup in, say, Russia, China, America, Israel, India...Poland  You're not going to turn China into an American satellite by whacking Hu, nor India by eliminating the top twenty BJP leaders.  The GOP is not going to go all Night of the Long Knives on the Democrats.  Nations vulnerable to coups are inherently suitable targets for this means. 
 
You can't do this willy-nilly, as some scenarios could lead to civil war (or to nuclear war), but it is a tool which should be sharpened, not junked.
 
Quote    Reply



 Latest
 News
 
 Most
 Read
 
 Most
 Commented
 Hot
 Topics