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Subject: ROKN Patrol Corvette sucken by DPRK torpedo boat
YelliChink    3/26/2010 12:10:07 PM
Just happened 2150 Korean local time. Chinese reports say that it was DPRK torpedo boat. The ROKN corvette sunk is probably a 1200t PCC. I can't read Korean so I am not sure which one exactly. At this moment, 59 out of 104 crew have been saved so far. Best wishes to the still missing ones and condolence to families of lost sailors.
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Hamilcar    Reactive reply.   4/3/2010 5:01:18 PM
I listed three possibles. I still think the torpedo is the least of the three for the reasons I gave.
Now a bottom bar-mine (like a small type akin to the British Stonefish) that a semi-submersible can drop?  Might be possible, but again, how could such a mine be laid without tipping off the RoK garrison on that island?   

There was a water column sighted and video recorded? Where is that?
Do we have a video of that? See that and we can probably rule in or rule out the depth charge immediately.
Note that I am not perfect-not even close to that exalted state of "expert" (sarcasm) as some claim. I can only go where the data leads.">" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385">
That is all we have from the captain. That is what I mean by the heel over as opposed to the normal hurling motion of the water hammer. As an illustration, of what I mean about explosives and their peculiar effects: back in 1976, the Oregon State Patrol was called in to dispose of a beached dead rotten eight tonne beached whale along the Pacific Coast Highway. Those bright lads hit upon the novel idea of digging a trench under the whale; sited so that they could blow it off the beach and back into the ocean and let the sharks have it. The loons hired a local demolition expert to prepare the trench, estimate the explosive quantity needed and then set and detonate the charge and voila-no more whale carcass.
He, the expert, packed about 200 kilograms of commercial low grade explosive under that poor whale in a trench that ran the length of its body, to leeward of the ocean, and set it off. Chunks of that whale flew everywhere and rained down on the idiots who came to watch the fun from almost 400 meters away. Chunks of whale flew as far 500 meters, one being large enough to hit and destroy the passenger section of a parked car at that distance from the blast.
Now I am prepared to accept that the Mark 9 may not be powerful enough to roll a 1200 tonne ship to the right and cause a stress crack that will result in the back end of the ship snapping off.
But I am not prepared to dismiss that possibility either, until I see definitive evidence that negates it. Its a possible  hypothesis.
Not when I know what it takes to hurl a large chunk of whale meat straight up and then straight down to wreck that automobile more than a third of a mile away and still leave much of the whale still on that beach to be sawed and carted off like those nimrods should have done in the first place

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Reactive    Re:   4/3/2010 5:41:36 PM
For some reason I can't see the caption/video/image that you posted in that thread, it doesn't display in firefox or chrome,  any chance you could link direct, it looks like something I should see..
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Reactive    Re:   4/3/2010 5:42:15 PM
And as if by magic, it appears, apologies, ignore the above..
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Hamilcar    Try this.   4/3/2010 5:47:51 PM
Summary. The captain states he was trapped in his cabin for five minutes after the explosion, and that his crew had to break him out with hammers , that he astern went to see that the aft part of his ship was gone, and that us about all he says. This is totally different from the reports I read second hand.
That means someone else had the conn and command for that crucial five minutes.  
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VelocityVector    Update   4/3/2010 6:19:24 PM

JoongAng Daily article:

The Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources detected the seismic wave of 1.4 to 1.5 magnitude underwater when the Cheonan was presumed to have ripped in half.

Such magnitude is equivalent to an explosion of 170 to 180 kilograms (374 to 396 pounds) of TNT.

The minister added that a marine who recorded the footage with a thermal observation device on Baengnyeong Island, which was near the explosion in the Yellow Sea near the inter-Korean border, saw a type of water column that erupts after a torpedo blast.

The South Koreans have called-off all rescue attempts.


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Hamilcar    US Navy on the scene by now.   4/3/2010 6:38:57 PM

S. Korean ship obscured by murky sea conditions

By Ashley Rowland, Stars and Stripes
Online Edition, Saturday, April 3, 2010" alt="" />
Ashley Rowland / S&S
U.S. Navy personnel in a raft Saturday check the waters near a South Korean salvage ship, in the background, at the site of the wreckage of the South Korea patrol ship Cheonan,which sank on March 26 after an explosion." alt="Purchase reprint" border="0" />" alt="" />
Ashley Rowland / S&S
Crew members of the USS Curtis Wilbur wait for the arrival of a helicopter on Saturday. The Curtis Wilbur is one of four U.S. ships standing by to assist in a rescue efforts to get to 46 South Korean sailors missing after the South Korean ship Cheonan sank on March 26. Most of the South Korean and U.S. ships at the wreckage site are also there as a deterrent to nearby North Korea, according to the U.S. Navy officer in charge of the American forces there." alt="Purchase reprint" border="0" />" alt="" />
Ashley Rowland / S&S
Sailors on the USS Curtis Wilbur on Saturday drop a ladder to passengers waiting in a raft below." alt="Purchase reprint" border="0" />" alt="" />
Ashley Rowland / S&S
Capt. Charlie Williams, commodore of Destroy Squadron 15" alt="Purchase reprint" border="0" />

ABOARD THE USNS SALVOR, Yellow Sea — Clear skies and a billowing sea Saturday were not telling of what was beneath the surface: brutally strong currents, frigid temperatures, and water so murky that divers would barely be able see in front of them if they had to go in.

Those conditions, U.S. Navy divers and officials aboard this rescue and salvage ship said, are expected to persist and will make salvaging the wreckage of the South Korean patrol ship Cheonan that mysteriously sank more than a week ago unusually difficult.

?This is a very challenging dive scene,? said Capt. Charlie Williams, commodore of Destroyer Squadron 15, operating out of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan.

Since the explosion, S

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gf0012-aust       4/3/2010 9:44:24 PM

That means someone else had the conn and command for that crucial five minutes.  

hence my much earlier post that the Captain, XO and Watch/Bridge Officers are critical for statements.

The captain being in his ward room seems to indicate that as far as they were initially concerned it was a business as usual run, otherwise he would have stayed on the bridge if they were entering a loc that was of interest.

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gf0012-aust       4/3/2010 9:48:13 PM

The water temperature — a bone-chilling 42 degrees on Saturday — and lack of visibility were expected to remain problems for divers and limit the time they could spend in the water. 

Williams said he did not know when that would be, but the U.S. would be ?using all capabilities? during the salvage of the sunken ship and the recovery of any bodies trapped inside.

A 16-member U.S. rescue and salvage dive team and a six-member underwater explosive ordnance disposal team are at the site. The EOD team would dive first into the wreckage to ensure any munitions aboard are stable. 
During the salvage mission, the Salvor will anchor above the stern of the Cheonan, providing support and pumping air to divers in heavy, helmeted diving suits below, as well as communicating with them undersea.

clearance/EOD divers won't go in first - the searays will go in first.

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Reactive       4/4/2010 12:23:58 AM
Looks like Uncle will conduct some of the salvage and hardhat diver work. This will tell is a lot of things about the American news coverage to this point. There should be no excuse that some reporters will not be embedded for this story. Its a big one.

Yes, and as the human tale unfolds it will likely do so on major networks in the US, there is a significant risk of loss of life down there, and the public will be reminded what an awful thing it is to go down with a ship. It's a statement of support from the US at a key point (as the horror and reality emerges) and I am quite sure that the command in the area is going to be on a very short-fuse when it comes to any NK threats/provocations/incursions. All of this whilst simaltaneously seeing a buildup of US assets (and you can bet there's more than is visible) in the area, testy time, any further incidents could easily snowball.
Will reply Re: MK.IX later... Interesting observation about the captain being unable to command for 5 minutes...
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SantaClaws       4/4/2010 9:48:56 PM
That's pretty arrogant of you considering how ignorant you are.

I think DA was only suggesting that it's entirely possible the ship's hull breached from contacting a wreck or natural object, rapidly filled with water and snapped its spine.  Me, I suspect the NorKs meticulously scripted the event based on years of observation and planning.  When the little flotilla changed course for behind the island the NorKs dispatched one of their stealthy semi-submersibles based in the area (reportedly they have 20-some stationed nearby) which sprinted under radar cover of the island to a set firing position and submerged with only a periscope and whip above the waves.  Shore-based surveillance may have contributed.  Ships rounded the island and the NorK boat launched a single passive homer that crept at quiet speed toward the predict point, picked up the engine or prop noise and then struck and shattered the keel.  The NorK boat waited, saw another ship heading its way, popped up, sprinted for friendly waters and fired-off decoys at intervals, which blew around in the winds.  Sokcho felt it had enough information to open fire and shot up the "birds."  The untouched NorK boat sped to the coastline where it masked and worked its way back, at night, to the staging area/pen.  Very Clancy-esque and far more intriguing than hull breach.  And not any less likely at this point in time given the other scenarios speculated upon.  The NorK/Iranian semi-submersibles/speedboats are a really difficult problem to counter in the enemy's backyard.  A Cheonan-type event is exactly what those boats were designed to accomplish.  0.02


That's exactly the point. Earlier in the thread, and while almost everybody else is/was throwing wild unsubstantiated irresponsible allegations and incorrect assertions about the physics behind something like this, a question about what else besides a torpedo/water hammer scenario could have caused this. The point was to remind those who are assuming things that there are other possibilities that could and have caused similar structural failures in the past to other vessels. I'm simply doing what I know the investigators are doing and methodically listing out the possibilities. As more information becomes available, THEN, I'll start narrowing down the most likely causes. That's the way it's done in the real world. Anything less is misinformed, flawed and if it was done this way by those responsible for determining the true cause, dangerous.

One of the things that is consistently failing to get a second look is friendly fire. It's an extremely necessary consideration and equally likely at this point as any Nork aggression based on available data. Again, for those with selective reading abilities, this isn't me saying friendly fire caused this. Just that it could have and needs to be considered until ABSOLUTELY ruled out. Shooting at birds. This is very possible. But either way, true or false, it would indicate a serious flaw in the PID procedures that MUST gate a red status on weapons and firing. By true or false, I mean birds or unidentified respectively. In either case the firing was at something that should not have been shot at. A lot of things can cause this. Panic being the most likely and common. If the South Koreans fired at something they weren't supposed to, then who else might have been fired on erroneously? Cheonan perhaps? It's possible. Because in addition to panic, a flawed ROE can easily cause a friendly fire event. This needs to be looked at just like grounding, mines, and internal ammunition or other accidental explosion. The reason is obvious and millions of lives depend on the answer.

Another thing, an intangible, unless you have the experience is Korean culture. The consequences of a mistake like this could cause serious political backlash if it's determined to be a self inflicted wound. Maintaining reputation and saving face is as crucial as physical security to a Korean. Anyone with experience working with Koreans knows this. Something I do constantly..." alt="" width="300" height="400" /> 


So having said that, those of you who are convinced that this was a North Korean attack may turn out
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